hockeystats.io

Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–4 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Monday, April 6, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 110 2 25
Buffalo SabresBUF 211 4 30
Playoff odds, % Change
TBL +0.0
BUF +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 6, 2026 6:59 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:42 BUF Alex Tuch (30) Bowen Byram (29), Ryan McLeod (39) · snap xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
11:45 TBL Nikita Kucherov (43)PP Jake Guentzel (49), Darren Raddysh (47) · snap xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
14:04 BUF Josh Norris (11) Josh Doan (25), Zach Benson (27) · wrist xG 0.07 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
3:56 TBL Jake Guentzel (37) Brayden Point (30), Darren Raddysh (48) · wrist xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
7:38 BUF Jason Zucker (23) Bowen Byram (30), Rasmus Dahlin (52) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
18:06 BUF Jack Quinn (19)EN Jason Zucker (18), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1) · wrist xG 0.58 2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 41%Deserve to win59% BUF
TBLBUF
2.45Expected goals3.53
2Goals (no shootout)4
1.70Expected goals, 5 on 51.55
52Shot attempts53
41Unblocked attempts43
25Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
15:56 TBL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 3–2
With 4:04 left
17:59 TBL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 3–2
With 2:01 left; BUF scored at 18:06 of the 3rd (2–4)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Josh Norris: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:46) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:49) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 2:36) Jake Guentzel: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 4:22) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:39) Darren Raddysh: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:56) Alex Tuch: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:11) Jason Zucker: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 7:44) Alex Tuch: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:42) Luke Schenn: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:01) Peyton Krebs: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:50) Jordan Greenway: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:04) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:05) Jason Zucker: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:00) Brayden Point: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:09) Nick Paul: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:35) Darren Raddysh: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:41) Alex Tuch: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:53) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:42) Jack Quinn: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:33) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:41) Jack Quinn: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:16) Jack Quinn: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:36) Zach Benson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:36) Josh Dunne: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:23) Jake Guentzel: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:46) Erik Cernak: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:51) Zach Benson: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 3:17) Logan Stanley: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:20) Alex Tuch: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:40) Alex Tuch: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:45) Alex Tuch: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:46) Brayden Point: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:13) Nick Paul: backhand, 39 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:44) Alex Tuch: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:52) Gage Goncalves: deflected, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:19) Bowen Byram: wrist, 101 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:27) Jack Quinn: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:29) Josh Dunne: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:18) Tage Thompson: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:24) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:28) Zach Benson: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:41) Owen Power: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:04) J.J. Moser: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:38) J.J. Moser: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:44) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:22) Darren Raddysh: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:27) Darren Raddysh: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:55) Zach Benson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:03) Nikita Kucherov: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:56) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:57) Mattias Samuelsson: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:45) Josh Doan: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:10) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:24) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:33) Josh Doan: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:45) Mattias Samuelsson: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:51) Erik Cernak: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:00) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:14) Mattias Samuelsson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:23) Alex Tuch: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:06) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:18) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:19) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:36) Brayden Point: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 10:40) Tage Thompson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:59) Owen Power: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:21) Darren Raddysh: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:44) Corey Perry: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:29) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:07) Darren Raddysh: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:14) Emil Lilleberg: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:45) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:30) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:56) Jake Guentzel: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:17) Jake Guentzel: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:08) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:41) Nick Paul: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:47) Alex Tuch: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:42) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:45) Josh Norris: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:04) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:56) Jason Zucker: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:38) Jack Quinn: GOAL, wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.58 (P3 18:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 112 -1 80.83 1024:54
86 Nikita Kucherov 101 -1 100.41 0023:30
21 Brayden Point 011 0 30.32 1020:01
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 20.15 3019:17
20 Nick Paul 000 0 40.08 3018:05
37 Yanni Gourde 000 -3 00.00 0115:03
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 20.00 5114:57
90 Corey Perry 000 -2 20.10 0112:36
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 00.00 2011:29
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 -2 00.00 1108:21
26 Mitchell Chaffee 000 -1 00.00 2006:23
49 Scott Sabourin 000 0 00.00 5005:58
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 022 -2 60.19 0025:45
90 J.J. Moser 000 -1 30.11 0019:54
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 -1 50.12 2018:02
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 -1 10.01 2216:58
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 -1 20.12 0216:44
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 40.03 1213:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 29326 .897 2.96 -0.04

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 101 0 90.75 2017:59
72 Tage Thompson 000 -1 40.14 3017:56
6 Zach Benson 011 +1 40.46 1017:44
71 Ryan McLeod 011 +3 00.00 0017:31
9 Josh Norris 101 +1 30.17 2117:10
91 Josh Doan 011 +1 30.10 2014:40
22 Jack Quinn 101 +2 51.00 0014:24
17 Jason Zucker 112 +2 60.50 0013:44
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 10.03 5212:53
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 10.02 2112:37
12 Jordan Greenway 000 0 20.05 0011:19
44 Josh Dunne 000 0 20.11 0207:58
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 +2 40.08 1023:01
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 +2 40.04 2122:44
24 Bowen Byram 022 +2 10.00 0021:16
25 Owen Power 000 0 20.08 0019:48
2 Luke Schenn 000 0 10.01 2112:54
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 10.00 0212:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 25223 .920 2.45 +0.45

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.88 +1.45 +0.54 +0.74 +0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 24:54
86 Nikita Kucherov R +1.85 +0.75 +0.27 +0.72 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 23:30
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.80 +1.10 +0.12 +0.53 +0.08 0.00 -0.02 — 25:45
21 Brayden Point C +1.72 +0.70 +0.21 +0.84 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:11
90 J.J. Moser D +0.62 0.00 +0.07 +0.40 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:54
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.19 0.00 +0.10 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:17
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:57
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:58
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.04 58:05
41 Mitchell Chaffee R -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 6:23
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.20 0.00 +0.08 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 18:02
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:29
20 Nick Paul L -0.30 0.00 +0.05 -0.37 0.00 +0.08 -0.06 — 18:05
46 Scott Sabourin R -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:58
10 Corey Perry R -0.38 0.00 +0.07 -0.57 +0.08 0.00 +0.05 — 12:36
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.39 0.00 +0.08 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:44
81 Erik Cernak D -0.48 0.00 +0.02 -0.45 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 13:58
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.60 0.00 -0.05 -0.01 — 14:53
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.57 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 8:21

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Jason Zucker L +2.04 +1.45 +0.32 +0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:44
4 Bowen Byram D +1.98 +1.40 0.00 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:16
22 Jack Quinn R +1.41 +0.75 +0.65 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:24
71 Ryan McLeod C +1.29 +0.55 0.00 +0.71 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 17:31
89 Alex Tuch R +1.13 +0.75 +0.49 +0.22 -0.30 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:59
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +1.00 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — +0.45 60:00
6 Zach Benson L +0.59 +0.55 +0.30 -0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:44
9 Josh Norris C +0.55 +0.75 +0.11 -0.29 0.00 -0.05 +0.03 — 17:10
91 Josh Doan R +0.50 +0.70 +0.06 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:40
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.48 +0.55 +0.05 -0.29 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 23:01
25 Owen Power D +0.41 0.00 +0.05 +0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:48
64 Logan Stanley D +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:40
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.20 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 +0.15 -0.01 +0.12 — 12:53
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 — 12:37
44 Josh Dunne C +0.11 0.00 +0.07 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 +0.10 — 7:58
5 Luke Schenn D +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:54
72 Tage Thompson C +0.01 0.00 +0.09 -0.20 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:56
12 Jordan Greenway L -0.04 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 -0.08 -0.01 0.00 — 11:19
23 Mattias Samuelsson D -0.55 0.00 +0.02 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 22:44

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.