| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 26 | |
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 31 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:53 | JJ Peterka (24) Ian Cole (20), Michael Carcone (14) · slap xG 0.06 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2:04 | Curtis Lazar (4) Adam Henrique (12), Mattias Ekholm (34) · backhand xG 0.16 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 8:56 | Connor McDavid (44)PP Evan Bouchard (68), Tristan Jarry (1) · wrist xG 0.18 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 14:43 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (19) Kasperi Kapanen (9) · snap xG 0.12 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 10:28 | Nick Schmaltz (29) Clayton Keller (54), Lawson Crouse (20) · slap xG 0.19 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 15:19 | Logan Cooley (23) Dylan Guenther (30), Sean Durzi (21) · slap xG 0.05 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| 16:06 | Vasily Podkolzin (18) Darnell Nurse (16), Connor McDavid (84) · backhand xG 0.20 | 4–3 ▶ | |
| 19:24 | Nick Schmaltz (30)SH John Marino (31), Alexander Kerfoot (6) · snap xG 0.10 | 4–4 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:09 | Colton Dach (4) Trent Frederic (3), Jason Dickinson (10) · snap xG 0.18 | 5–4 ▶ | |
| 12:56 | Alexander Kerfoot (6) Sean Durzi (22), Michael Carcone (15) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 5–5 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 0:33 | Clayton Keller (26)PP Mikhail Sergachev (46), Dylan Guenther (31) · snap xG 0.14 | 5–6 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| EDM | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | Expected goals | 4.14 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 2.26 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.07 |
| 45 | Shot attempts | 81 |
| 37 | Unblocked attempts | 64 |
| 26 | Shots on goal | 31 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:43 | UTA | Goalie | Goalie · Vejmelka −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.93 xG, 6 shots on goal |
| 15:23 | UTA | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · UTA takes the lead, 61–39%
EDM had led since 4:21 of the 1st, by as much as 64% |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 17:30 | UTA | No shift | No shift · DeSimone, 30:01 on the bench
No shift after 3:14 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:19) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 17:12 |
| 42 | Kasperi Kapanen | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 2 | 0 | 16:58 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.25 | 3 | 1 | 15:43 |
| 16 | Jason Dickinson | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.32 | 2 | 0 | 15:20 |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 14:44 |
| 34 | Colton Dach | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.72 | 5 | 0 | 14:01 |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 11:36 |
| 20 | Curtis Lazar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 3 | 0 | 07:51 |
| 46 | Max Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 07:26 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 5 | Connor Murphy | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 23:44 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.05 | 2 | 2 | 23:15 |
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 22:33 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 20:20 |
| 96 | Jake Walman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.03 | 2 | 2 | 13:06 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | 31 | 6 | 25 | .806 | 4.14 | -1.86 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 67 | Lawson Crouse | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.36 | 5 | 0 | 21:01 |
| 9 | Clayton Keller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 |
| 8 | Nick Schmaltz | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| 92 | Logan Cooley | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.25 | 2 | 0 | 18:28 |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 | 0.45 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| 56 | Kailer Yamamoto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.31 | 4 | 1 | 17:10 |
| 14 | Alexander Kerfoot | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 |
| 10 | JJ Peterka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.44 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 |
| 53 | Michael Carcone | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 2 | 0 | 15:11 |
| 82 | Kevin Stenlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 1 | 11:11 |
| 13 | Brandon Tanev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.16 | 2 | 0 | 07:09 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 98 | Mikhail Sergachev | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 2 | 25:34 |
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | 2 | 1 | 18:59 |
| 6 | John Marino | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
| 28 | Ian Cole | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 17:50 |
| 88 | Nate Schmidt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 17:13 |
| 5 | Sean Durzi | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 |
| 57 | Nick DeSimone | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 03:19 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | 26 | 5 | 21 | .808 | 2.67 | -2.33 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 Colton Dach C | +2.34 | +0.75 | +0.47 | +1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:01 |
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +2.01 | +1.30 | +0.28 | +0.22 | +0.15 | +0.06 | 0.00 | — | 22:05 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +1.68 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.56 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 15:43 |
| 10 Trent Frederic C | +1.51 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:44 |
| 16 Jason Dickinson C | +1.45 | +0.55 | +0.21 | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | — | 15:20 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +1.14 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:20 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +0.88 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 23:15 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +0.56 | +0.70 | +0.08 | -0.04 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.03 | — | 22:33 |
| 20 Curtis Lazar C | +0.09 | +0.75 | +0.10 | -0.89 | +0.15 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 7:51 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 19:44 |
| 42 Kasperi Kapanen R | -0.13 | +0.70 | +0.05 | -0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:58 |
| 19 Adam Henrique C | -0.21 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.95 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 11:36 |
| 5 Connor Murphy D | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 23:44 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | -0.28 | +0.75 | +0.19 | -1.18 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | 16:51 |
| 46 Max Jones L | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 7:26 |
| 96 Jake Walman D | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:10 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | -1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.28 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.11 | — | 17:12 |
| 35 Tristan Jarry G | -1.31 | +0.55 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.86 | 60:33 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | -1.32 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.27 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 13:06 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Clayton Keller R | +2.77 | +1.45 | +0.35 | +1.11 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:35 |
| 8 Nick Schmaltz C | +2.30 | +1.50 | +0.44 | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.06 | — | 19:23 |
| 50 Sean Durzi D | +2.15 | +1.25 | +0.08 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:24 |
| 11 Dylan Guenther R | +1.78 | +1.25 | +0.29 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:10 |
| 28 Ian Cole D | +1.56 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 17:50 |
| 15 Alexander Kerfoot C | +1.47 | +1.30 | +0.10 | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | — | 17:04 |
| 67 Lawson Crouse L | +1.33 | +0.55 | +0.24 | +0.57 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 21:01 |
| 92 Logan Cooley C | +1.17 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.15 | -0.05 | 0.00 | — | 18:28 |
| 6 John Marino D | +0.91 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:36 |
| 53 Michael Carcone L | +0.91 | +1.10 | +0.06 | -0.36 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:11 |
| 77 JJ Peterka R | +0.81 | +0.75 | +0.28 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:37 |
| 98 Mikhail Sergachev D | +0.69 | +0.70 | +0.13 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 25:34 |
| 13 Brandon Tanev L | +0.67 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 7:09 |
| 56 Kailer Yamamoto R | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:10 |
| 82 Kevin Stenlund C | +0.34 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.13 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.01 | — | 11:11 |
| 88 Nate Schmidt D | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:13 |
| 57 Nick DeSimone D | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 3:19 |
| 52 MacKenzie Weegar D | -0.66 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.40 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 18:59 |
| 70 Karel Vejmelka G | -2.33 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.33 | 60:06 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.