| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No scoring | |||
| 2nd Period | |||
| 6:30 | Cole Caufield (50) Nick Suzuki (69), Juraj Slafkovský (41) · snap xG 0.10 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 18:09 | Darren Raddysh (22) Nikita Kucherov (85), Gage Goncalves (21) · snap xG 0.06 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 18:56 | Juraj Slafkovský (30) Nick Suzuki (70) · snap xG 0.40 | 1–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| TBL | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Expected goals | 4.14 |
| 1 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 0.74 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.78 |
| 36 | Shot attempts | 59 |
| 27 | Unblocked attempts | 43 |
| 18 | Shots on goal | 21 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | MTL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.38–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:40 to 10:40 of the 1st; neither team scored |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 17:50 | TBL | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 1–0
With 2:10 left; TBL scored at 18:09 of the 3rd (1–1) |
| 19:05 | TBL | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 2–1
With 0:55 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 59 | Jake Guentzel | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 0 | 26:38 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 0 | 23:12 |
| 21 | Brayden Point | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 20:28 |
| 93 | Gage Goncalves | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 18:19 |
| 37 | Yanni Gourde | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.12 | 6 | 0 | 14:05 |
| 90 | Corey Perry | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 12:25 |
| 28 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 10:46 |
| 20 | Nick Paul | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 07:38 |
| 22 | Jakob Pelletier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 07:06 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 27 | Ryan McDonagh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 1 | 2 | 22:47 |
| 81 | Erik Cernak | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.03 | 4 | 2 | 22:05 |
| 90 | J.J. Moser | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 0 | 20:41 |
| 78 | Emil Lilleberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 18:43 |
| 43 | Darren Raddysh | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 13:59 |
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 09:12 |
| 72 | Declan Carlile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 05:02 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 21 | 2 | 19 | .905 | 3.39 | +1.39 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 0.67 | 1 | 0 | 22:25 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 0.96 | 2 | 0 | 21:23 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 0 | 18:56 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 10 | 0.60 | 1 | 0 | 17:56 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 14:38 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 0 | 13:03 |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0 | 12:40 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 12:32 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 0 | 12:29 |
| 90 | Joseph Veleno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 4 | 0 | 10:44 |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 | 09:03 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 2 | 29:17 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 25:39 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 4 | 1 | 22:55 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 5 | 3 | 11:09 |
| 42 | Adam Engstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 09:12 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 08:45 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 18 | 1 | 17 | .944 | 1.88 | +0.88 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G | +1.39 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.39 | 58:15 |
| 43 Darren Raddysh D | +0.99 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.11 | -0.10 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 13:59 |
| 10 Corey Perry R | +0.61 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:17 |
| 86 Nikita Kucherov R | +0.30 | +0.70 | +0.15 | -0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 23:12 |
| 93 Gage Goncalves C | +0.25 | +0.55 | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:19 |
| 11 Jakob Pelletier L | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 7:06 |
| 78 Emil Lilleberg D | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.09 | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 18:43 |
| 51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.19 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:12 |
| 67 Declan Carlile D | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 5:02 |
| 59 Jake Guentzel C | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.43 | -0.60 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 26:38 |
| 20 Nick Paul L | -0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.38 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 7:38 |
| 28 Zemgus Girgensons C | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 12:25 |
| 21 Brayden Point C | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.35 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.04 | — | 21:22 |
| 71 Anthony Cirelli C | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.34 | -0.15 | +0.01 | +0.06 | — | 20:28 |
| 27 Ryan McDonagh D | -0.63 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 22:47 |
| 22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.55 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:46 |
| 90 J.J. Moser D | -0.76 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.59 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:41 |
| 81 Erik Cernak D | -1.13 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 22:05 |
| 37 Yanni Gourde C | -1.18 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.92 | -0.30 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:05 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +3.17 | +1.40 | +0.44 | +1.18 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 22:25 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | +3.09 | +1.30 | +0.62 | +1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 21:23 |
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +2.32 | +0.75 | +0.39 | +1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:56 |
| 48 Lane Hutson D | +1.69 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 29:17 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | +1.03 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.60 | +0.26 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 11:09 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | +0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.77 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 25:39 |
| 75 Jakub Dobes G | +0.93 | 0.00 | — | — | +0.05 | — | — | +0.88 | 60:00 |
| 15 Alex Newhook C | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.26 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 18:56 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 12:32 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.10 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 12:29 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:03 |
| 42 Adam Engstrom D | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 9:12 |
| 90 Joseph Veleno C | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.08 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:44 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.27 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 19:14 |
| 72 Arber Xhekaj D | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 8:45 |
| 77 Kirby Dach C | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:38 |
| 24 Phillip Danault C | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.17 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:40 |
| 85 Alexandre Texier L | -0.16 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:03 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | -0.29 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 22:55 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.