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Calgary FlamesCGY 1–3 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 001 1 29
Colorado AvalancheCOL 111 3 41
Playoff odds, % Change
COL +0.0
CGY +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 9, 2026 8:52 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:44 COL Gabriel Landeskog (13)PP Nathan MacKinnon (73), Martin Necas (59) · snap xG 0.22 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
15:01 COL Martin Necas (38) Nathan MacKinnon (74), Brent Burns (22) · wrist xG 0.11 0–2 ▶
3rd Period
17:08 CGY Tyson Gross (1) Matvei Gridin (13), Matt Coronato (25) · backhand xG 0.23 1–2 ▶
19:05 COL Nathan MacKinnon (52)EN Martin Necas (60) · backhand xG 0.92 1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 17%Deserve to win83% COL
CGYCOL
2.22Expected goals5.89
1Goals (no shootout)3
1.64Expected goals, 5 on 53.68
60Shot attempts78
47Unblocked attempts58
29Shots on goal41

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
2:40 COL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CGY 1.66–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 16:40 of the 1st to 6:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
7:44 CGY Goalie Goalie · Wolf +2.2 goals saved
2 goals on 4.18 xG, 38 shots on goal
16:14 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 2–0
With 3:46 left; CGY scored at 17:08 of the 3rd (1–2)
17:37 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 2–1
With 2:23 left
18:24 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 2–1
With 1:36 left; COL scored at 19:05 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:00) Josh Manson: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:06) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:07) Brock Nelson: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:20) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 2:34) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:22) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 3:24) Devon Toews: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:32) Brent Burns: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:26) Nick Blankenburg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:30) Hunter Brzustewicz: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:47) Josh Manson: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:36) Parker Kelly: backhand, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:00) Zach Whitecloud: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:34) Matt Coronato: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:49) Joel Farabee: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:29) Brayden Pachal: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:26) Matt Coronato: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:27) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:47) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:08) Matt Coronato: slap, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:27) Olli Maatta: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:14) Matt Coronato: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:03) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:31) Brent Burns: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:21) Sam Malinski: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:50) Morgan Frost: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:38) Martin Necas: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:59) Josh Manson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:06) John Beecher: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:27) Devon Toews: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:20) Mikael Backlund: snap, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:40) Martin Necas: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 1:01) Brock Nelson: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 1:08) Joel Kiviranta: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:59) Ross Colton: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 2:01) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:33) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:38) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:12) Hunter Brzustewicz: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:44) Mikael Backlund: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:30) Parker Kelly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:40) Jack Drury: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 4:44) Brent Burns: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:19) Brock Nelson: poke, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:20) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:29) Martin Necas: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:51) Olli Maatta: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:42) Logan O'Connor: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:27) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:09) Morgan Frost: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:41) Ross Colton: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:53) Ross Colton: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:11) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:32) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:54) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:37) Yan Kuznetsov: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:31) Matt Coronato: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:57) Matt Coronato: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:14) Parker Kelly: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:26) Sam Malinski: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:32) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:38) John Beecher: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:42) Connor Zary: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 17:54) Yan Kuznetsov: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:58) Matt Coronato: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:16) Yegor Sharangovich: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:51) Jack Drury: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:16) Brent Burns: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:32) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 19:34) Aydar Suniev: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:34) Connor Zary: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:48) Adam Klapka: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:07) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:14) Joel Farabee: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:18) Brett Kulak: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:31) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:37) Nathan MacKinnon: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:44) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:14) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 3:16) Sam Malinski: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:56) Sam Malinski: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:07) Mikael Backlund: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:28) Martin Necas: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:21) Nicolas Roy: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 7:44) Artturi Lehkonen: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:06) Sam Malinski: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:15) Connor Zary: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:58) John Beecher: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:59) Olli Maatta: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:02) Aydar Suniev: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:29) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:52) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:00) Zayne Parekh: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:31) Jack Drury: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:37) Artturi Lehkonen: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:14) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:24) Aydar Suniev: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:12) Matt Coronato: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 17:03) Matvei Gridin: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:06) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 17:41) Gabriel Landeskog: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 18:44) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:01) Tyson Gross: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 17:08) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.92 (P3 19:05)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
27 Matt Coronato 011 0 90.59 0119:15
16 Morgan Frost 000 0 30.14 1019:11
92 Matvei Gridin 011 0 40.08 1018:48
86 Joel Farabee 000 0 20.02 0118:31
11 Mikael Backlund 000 0 60.15 0117:16
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 0 40.09 0015:39
47 Connor Zary 000 0 30.24 1014:18
39 Tyson Gross 101 -1 10.23 2113:15
17 John Beecher 000 0 30.21 1312:50
95 Victor Olofsson 000 -1 10.03 0012:07
43 Adam Klapka 000 -1 10.02 4309:25
Defense
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 0 20.04 1323:31
3 Olli Maatta 000 0 40.03 0222:19
37 Yan Kuznetsov 000 0 20.05 2220:31
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 0 20.01 4019:27
19 Zayne Parekh 000 -1 60.13 0117:57
94 Brayden Pachal 000 -1 20.02 2111:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 40238 .950 4.50 +2.50

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 123 +1 81.75 1022:23
88 Martin Necas 123 +2 60.50 1119:59
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 +1 30.27 1118:49
11 Brock Nelson 000 -1 40.35 0116:51
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 +1 40.73 0116:01
18 Jack Drury 000 0 40.38 0015:00
92 Gabriel Landeskog 101 -1 60.46 2014:21
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 70.30 1213:40
25 Logan O'Connor 000 0 20.03 2012:04
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 20.20 1011:19
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 10.08 0008:58
79 Ross Colton 000 0 30.53 2108:53
Defense
7 Devon Toews 000 0 30.04 0022:26
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 10.01 0321:48
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 80.11 0120:32
42 Josh Manson 000 +1 50.09 0019:45
84 Brent Burns 011 0 80.06 0018:34
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 +1 30.00 0114:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 29128 .966 2.22 +1.22

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
32 Dustin Wolf G +2.50 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.50 57:38
47 Connor Zary C +0.28 0.00 +0.15 +0.14 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:18
18 John Beecher C +0.22 0.00 +0.14 +0.12 -0.15 -0.03 +0.15 — 12:50
36 Aydar Suniev L +0.18 0.00 +0.09 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:56
92 Matvei Gridin R +0.08 +0.70 +0.05 -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:48
3 Olli Maatta D +0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:19
39 Tyson Gross C -0.01 +0.75 +0.15 -1.01 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 — 13:15
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.16 0.00 +0.09 -0.39 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 17:57
94 Brayden Pachal D -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:59
43 Adam Klapka R -0.37 0.00 +0.01 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 9:25
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D -0.47 0.00 +0.01 -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:27
86 Joel Farabee L -0.51 0.00 +0.02 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:31
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.60 0.00 +0.02 -0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:07
27 Matt Coronato R -0.68 +0.55 +0.38 -1.38 -0.30 0.00 +0.07 — 19:15
16 Morgan Frost C -0.77 0.00 +0.09 -0.89 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 19:11
17 Yegor Sharangovich C -0.81 0.00 +0.06 -0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:39
11 Mikael Backlund C -0.92 0.00 +0.10 -1.00 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 17:16
28 Zach Whitecloud D -1.37 0.00 +0.02 -1.67 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:31
37 Yan Kuznetsov D -1.68 0.00 +0.03 -1.79 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:31

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +4.53 +2.15 +1.14 +1.48 -0.15 -0.03 -0.06 — 22:23
88 Martin Necas C +2.91 +2.00 +0.32 +0.56 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:59
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +2.04 +0.75 +0.30 +1.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:21
7 Devon Toews D +1.37 0.00 +0.03 +1.19 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:26
70 Sam Malinski D +1.32 0.00 +0.07 +1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:32
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G +1.22 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.22 60:00
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +1.20 0.00 +0.17 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:49
27 Brett Kulak D +1.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:48
11 Brock Nelson C +1.10 0.00 +0.23 +0.84 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 16:51
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +1.03 0.00 +0.47 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:01
42 Josh Manson D +0.95 0.00 +0.06 +0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:45
84 Brent Burns D +0.94 +0.55 +0.04 +0.22 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:34
20 Ross Colton C +0.81 0.00 +0.34 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:53
10 Nicolas Roy C +0.55 0.00 +0.13 +0.40 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 — 11:19
17 Parker Kelly C +0.51 0.00 +0.19 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:40
18 Jack Drury C +0.47 0.00 +0.25 +0.12 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:00
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.41 0.00 +0.05 +0.51 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:58
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:37
25 Logan O'Connor R +0.16 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 12:04

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.