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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 3–2 Final/OT Colorado AvalancheCOL

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 1101 3 29
Colorado AvalancheCOL 1100 2 32
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK +0.1
COL +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 11, 2026 7:20 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:17 COL Devon Toews (3)PP Brock Nelson (32), Martin Necas (61) · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
13:47 VGK Mark Stone (27)PP Tomas Hertl (33), Mitch Marner (56) · backhand xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:09 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (36) Ivan Barbashev (37), Kaedan Korczak (12) · snap xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
10:56 COL Nick Blankenburg (7) Nicolas Roy (16) · wrist xG 0.01 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
1:19 VGK Jack Eichel (26) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.12 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 52%Deserve to win48% COL
VGKCOL
3.59Expected goals3.48
3Goals (no shootout)2
2.56Expected goals, 5 on 52.39
73Shot attempts65
53Unblocked attempts53
29Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
7:20 COL No shift No shift · Manson, 20:34 on the bench
No shift after 17:17 of the 2nd; 15 shifts (11:46) before that
16:40 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.46–0.27
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:50 to 16:50 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:42) Parker Kelly: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:44) Josh Manson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:50) Brett Kulak: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:56) Pavel Dorofeyev: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:05) Martin Necas: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:17) Brett Kulak: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:23) Brent Burns: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:26) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:34) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:46) Josh Manson: wrist, 152 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:04) Jack Eichel: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:29) Mark Stone: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:31) Martin Necas: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:26) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:50) Brett Howden: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:39) Brayden McNabb: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:57) Jack Drury: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:43) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:09) Martin Necas: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 11:19) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:32) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:20) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:12) Mark Stone: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:39) Mark Stone: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:45) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:07) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:22) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:37) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:24) Brock Nelson: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 17:18) Martin Necas: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:25) Devon Toews: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:32) Noah Hanifin: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:41) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 18:07) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:05) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:46) Mitch Marner: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:59) Mark Stone: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:12) Mitch Marner: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:19) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:23) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:42) Brandon Saad: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:11) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:53) Josh Manson: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:19) Ross Colton: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:41) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:00) Brett Howden: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:14) Nick Blankenburg: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:28) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:39) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:54) Shea Theodore: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:05) Jack Eichel: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:15) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:11) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:47) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:40) Brock Nelson: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:52) Jack Eichel: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:19) Logan O'Connor: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:48) Logan O'Connor: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:49) Nic Dowd: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:46) Nic Dowd: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:47) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:45) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:03) Nathan MacKinnon: backhand, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:33) Jack Drury: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:29) Mitch Marner: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:55) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:53) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 0:13) Brock Nelson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:58) Brent Burns: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:05) Sam Malinski: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:05) Ross Colton: deflected, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:12) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:21) Shea Theodore: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:01) Tomas Hertl: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:10) Cole Smith: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:30) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:06) Artturi Lehkonen: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:07) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:59) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:20) Brandon Saad: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 8:23) Nic Dowd: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:22) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:25) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:34) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:50) Jack Eichel: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:43) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:40) Brandon Saad: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:50) Tomas Hertl: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 14:45) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:19) Jack Drury: backhand, 172 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:28) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:13) Shea Theodore: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:26) Nic Dowd: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 16:36) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 16:38) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:45) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:48) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:28) Martin Necas: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:40) Brent Burns: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:04) Devon Toews: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 1:10) Devon Toews: GOAL, wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:17) Mark Stone: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 13:47) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:09) Nick Blankenburg: GOAL, wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:56) Jack Eichel: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 1:19)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 101 +1 60.37 0020:44
93 Mitch Marner 011 0 30.24 0120:30
61 Mark Stone 101 +1 50.59 1119:19
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 101 +1 70.48 0017:11
21 Brett Howden 000 +1 40.11 1017:11
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 +1 40.07 1216:32
48 Tomas Hertl 011 0 90.48 1015:14
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 20.03 1013:45
26 Nic Dowd 000 -1 60.35 2012:09
22 Cole Smith 000 -1 20.04 1111:47
20 Brandon Saad 000 0 40.35 0010:41
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 -1 20.29 2110:12
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 0 60.06 0125:51
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +1 30.03 1021:25
27 Shea Theodore 000 0 30.07 0020:08
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 30.04 1418:43
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 20.00 5015:17
6 Kaedan Korczak 011 0 20.01 1111:49
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Carter Hart 32230 .938 3.48 +1.48

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 011 -1 50.33 0021:51
29 Nathan MacKinnon 000 -1 110.71 0021:38
11 Brock Nelson 011 0 30.34 0519:59
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 0 40.44 2018:13
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 -1 60.57 0016:52
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 20.07 0015:39
10 Nicolas Roy 011 +1 10.02 0113:38
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 40.09 1012:19
17 Parker Kelly 000 -1 10.09 0011:36
79 Ross Colton 000 +1 20.17 2010:14
25 Logan O'Connor 000 0 20.16 1009:54
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 +1 00.00 1009:50
Defense
7 Devon Toews 101 -1 30.20 0326:53
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 30.03 1222:37
70 Sam Malinski 000 -1 30.02 1321:48
84 Brent Burns 000 0 50.03 0218:52
3 Nick Blankenburg 101 +1 60.20 0314:06
42 Josh Manson 000 0 40.02 4111:46
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 29326 .897 3.59 +0.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
79 Carter Hart G +1.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.48 61:19
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.34 +0.70 +0.31 +0.31 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:14
61 Mark Stone R +1.06 +0.75 +0.38 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:19
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.93 +0.75 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:11
9 Jack Eichel C +0.89 +0.75 +0.24 -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 20:44
93 Mitch Marner R +0.72 +0.55 +0.16 -0.07 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 20:30
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.52 0.00 +0.19 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:12
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.51 +0.70 +0.04 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:32
20 Brandon Saad L +0.50 0.00 +0.23 +0.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:41
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.48 0.00 +0.02 +0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:25
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.44 +0.55 +0.01 -0.29 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:49
21 Brett Howden C +0.40 0.00 +0.07 +0.18 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:11
22 Cole Smith R +0.38 0.00 +0.02 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 11:47
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.27 0.00 +0.03 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 18:43
26 Nic Dowd C +0.19 0.00 +0.23 +0.11 -0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 12:09
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.18 0.00 +0.04 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 25:51
10 Colton Sissons C -0.02 0.00 +0.02 +0.13 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 13:45
27 Shea Theodore D -0.07 0.00 +0.04 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 20:08
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:17

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Devon Toews D +1.42 +0.75 +0.13 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 26:54
88 Martin Necas C +1.32 +0.55 +0.21 +0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:51
37 Nick Blankenburg D +1.22 +0.75 +0.13 -0.11 +0.30 0.00 +0.15 — 14:06
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.86 0.00 +0.37 +0.36 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:52
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.85 0.00 +0.46 +0.38 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 21:38
11 Brock Nelson C +0.79 +0.70 +0.22 -0.15 -0.15 -0.04 +0.21 — 19:59
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G +0.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.59 61:19
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.48 0.00 +0.04 +0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:39
10 Nicolas Roy C +0.36 +0.70 +0.01 -0.44 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 13:38
70 Sam Malinski D +0.35 0.00 +0.01 +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:46
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +0.08 0.00 +0.29 -0.01 -0.15 -0.03 -0.02 — 18:13
25 Logan O'Connor R +0.03 0.00 +0.11 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:54
27 Brett Kulak D -0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:37
42 Josh Manson D -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:46
20 Ross Colton C -0.20 0.00 +0.11 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:13
18 Jack Drury C -0.37 0.00 +0.06 -0.41 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 12:19
17 Parker Kelly C -0.45 0.00 +0.06 -0.45 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 11:38
94 Joel Kiviranta L -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:50
84 Brent Burns D -0.66 0.00 +0.02 -0.60 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 18:52

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.