| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 37 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:27 | Mason McTavish (16)PP Jackson LaCombe (48), Ryan Poehling (24) · wrist xG 0.07 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 16:42 | Danila Yurov (12) Vladimir Tarasenko (24) · wrist xG 0.06 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 11:24 | Hunter Haight (1) Nick Foligno (11), Marcus Johansson (34) · wrist xG 0.14 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 13:03 | Robby Fabbri (2) Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2), Ben Jones (2) · wrist xG 0.87 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 19:14 | Mason McTavish (17) Mikael Granlund (19), Cutter Gauthier (28) · tip-in xG 0.10 | 2–3 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| ANA | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4.97 | Expected goals | 3.74 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 3 |
| 2.54 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.32 |
| 81 | Shot attempts | 43 |
| 63 | Unblocked attempts | 36 |
| 37 | Shots on goal | 20 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:12 | MIN | Goalie | Goalie · Wallstedt +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 21 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 9:50 | ANA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced MIN 1.18–0.02
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:30 to 11:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored |
| 16:29 | ANA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Dostal, down 3–1
With 3:31 left; ANA scored at 19:14 of the 3rd (2–3) |
| 19:39 | ANA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Dostal, down 3–2
With 0:21 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 0.56 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.49 | 1 | 0 | 20:53 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 0.55 | 1 | 0 | 18:33 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 11 | 0.73 | 1 | 0 | 18:14 |
| 19 | Troy Terry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 |
| 83 | Mason McTavish | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.77 | 1 | 0 | 17:36 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 14:48 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 3 | 0 | 11:16 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.05 | 4 | 0 | 09:48 |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 08:31 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 1 | 24:14 |
| 74 | John Carlson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 19:22 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.19 | 1 | 1 | 17:44 |
| 55 | Tyson Hinds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.05 | 0 | 2 | 15:06 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 1 | 14:34 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 07:27 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 20 | 3 | 17 | .850 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 10 | Bobby Brink | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 0 | 17:03 |
| 22 | Danila Yurov | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.49 | 4 | 0 | 16:54 |
| 91 | Vladimir Tarasenko | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 |
| 13 | Yakov Trenin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 15:49 |
| 71 | Nick Foligno | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 15:48 |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.12 | 2 | 0 | 14:23 |
| 78 | Nico Sturm | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 |
| 90 | Marcus Johansson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 |
| 18 | Ben Jones | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 13:23 |
| 37 | Hunter Haight | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.77 | 2 | 0 | 12:57 |
| 21 | Robby Fabbri | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 1.21 | 2 | 0 | 12:08 |
| 16 | Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.15 | 2 | 1 | 11:58 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Daemon Hunt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | 21:01 |
| 6 | Viking Gustafsson Nyberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 3 | 20:38 |
| 26 | Matt Kiersted | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 5 | 20:19 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.03 | 2 | 2 | 20:06 |
| 55 | Jake Middleton | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 18:43 |
| 25 | Jonas Brodin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 18:08 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | 37 | 2 | 35 | .946 | 4.97 | +2.97 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mason McTavish C | +2.38 | +1.50 | +0.50 | +0.22 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:36 |
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | +1.30 | +0.70 | +0.32 | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.02 | — | 20:53 |
| 14 Drew Helleson D | +0.66 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:34 |
| 91 Leo Carlsson C | +0.51 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.08 | +0.15 | -0.05 | -0.04 | — | 21:00 |
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:33 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 20:24 |
| 19 Troy Terry R | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:54 |
| 1 Lukas Dostal G | +0.25 | 0.00 | — | — | -0.15 | — | — | +0.40 | 56:53 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 11:16 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | +0.10 | +0.70 | +0.21 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 24:14 |
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 17:44 |
| 60 Tyson Hinds D | -0.13 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 15:06 |
| 74 John Carlson D | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | — | 21:43 |
| 3 Ian Moore D | -0.28 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 7:27 |
| 77 Frank Vatrano R | -0.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:31 |
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | -0.50 | +0.55 | +0.47 | -1.45 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.06 | — | 18:14 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | -0.70 | +0.55 | +0.05 | -1.34 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 14:48 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | -1.51 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -1.52 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.06 | — | 9:48 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | -1.61 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 19:22 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jesper Wallstedt G | +2.97 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.97 | 60:00 |
| 21 Robby Fabbri C | +2.17 | +0.75 | +0.79 | +0.66 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:08 |
| 37 Hunter Haight C | +2.04 | +0.75 | +0.50 | +0.95 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:57 |
| 22 Danila Yurov R | +1.54 | +0.75 | +0.32 | +0.47 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.04 | — | 16:54 |
| 16 Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | +1.53 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 11:58 |
| 39 Ben Jones C | +1.40 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.90 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | — | 13:23 |
| 5 Jake Middleton D | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.47 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:43 |
| 90 Marcus Johansson L | +1.28 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:34 |
| 91 Vladimir Tarasenko R | +1.14 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:17 |
| 71 Nick Foligno L | +0.98 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:48 |
| 6 Viking Gustafsson-Nyberg D | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 20:38 |
| 10 Bobby Brink R | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.47 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:03 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | +0.60 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 20:06 |
| 78 Nico Sturm C | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.29 | 0.00 | +0.05 | 0.00 | — | 13:56 |
| 26 Matt Kiersted D | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 20:19 |
| 25 Jonas Brodin D | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 18:08 |
| 48 Daemon Hunt D | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 21:01 |
| 13 Yakov Trenin C | -0.73 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:49 |
| 47 Michael McCarron C | -1.08 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -1.01 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:23 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.