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Dallas StarsDAL 4–3 Final/SO Buffalo SabresBUF

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 12003 4 28
Buffalo SabresBUF 12002 3 24
Playoff odds, % Change
DAL +0.0
BUF +0.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 15, 2026 6:12 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:19 DAL Mavrik Bourque (20) Esa Lindell (26), Ilya Lyubushkin (8) · snap xG 0.18 1–0 ▶
12:48 BUF Josh Norris (13) Zach Benson (30), Owen Power (20) · wrist xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:32 BUF Zach Benson (13)SH Tyson Kozak (4) · snap xG 0.35 1–2 ▶
4:24 DAL Esa Lindell (6)PP Jamie Benn (21), Justin Hryckowian (16) · wrist xG 0.09 2–2 ▶
11:09 BUF Alex Tuch (33) Tanner Pearson (8), Owen Power (21) · snap xG 0.05 2–3 ▶
16:00 DAL Justin Hryckowian (14) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.08 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
BUF Josh Norris vs Jake Oettinger Goal
DAL Jason Robertson vs Colten Ellis Goal
BUF Jack Quinn vs Jake Oettinger Goal
DAL Mikko Rantanen vs Colten Ellis Missed
BUF Alex Tuch vs Jake Oettinger Missed
DAL Matt Duchene vs Colten Ellis Goal
BUF Josh Doan vs Jake Oettinger Saved
DAL Wyatt Johnston vs Colten Ellis Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 30%Deserve to win70% BUF
DALBUF
1.98Expected goals3.10
3Goals (no shootout)3
1.89Expected goals, 5 on 51.44
51Shot attempts59
37Unblocked attempts43
28Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
16:00 BUF Goalie Goalie · Ellis −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.89 xG, 15 shots on goal

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Thomas Harley: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:16) Jack Quinn: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:45) Esa Lindell: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:16) Michael Bunting: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:58) Josh Doan: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:07) Logan Stanley: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:23) Conor Timmins: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:51) Logan Stanley: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:09) Conor Timmins: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:04) Jack Quinn: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:45) Jack Quinn: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:55) Jack Quinn: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 10:08) Jack Quinn: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 10:22) Zach Benson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:27) Jack Quinn: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:30) Josh Doan: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:36) Peyton Krebs: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:32) Logan Stanley: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:20) Jason Robertson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:27) Thomas Harley: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:56) Thomas Harley: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:21) Zach Benson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:58) Owen Power: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:51) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 1:56) Jordan Greenway: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:06) Ilya Lyubushkin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:36) Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:37) Zach Benson: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:11) Josh Dunne: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:12) Josh Dunne: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:14) Conor Timmins: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:22) Tyler Myers: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:36) Michael Bunting: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:17) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:20) Radek Faksa: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:48) Radek Faksa: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:49) Radek Faksa: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:50) Adam Erne: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:22) Thomas Harley: wrist, 135 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:16) Logan Stanley: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:43) Michael Bunting: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:21) Conor Timmins: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:28) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:27) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:21) Esa Lindell: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:32) Josh Dunne: wrist, 123 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:32) Luke Schenn: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:14) Justin Hryckowian: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:48) Esa Lindell: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:56) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:37) Tyler Myers: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:44) Adam Erne: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:08) Oskar Bäck: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:09) Adam Erne: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 4:12) Michael Bunting: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:14) Thomas Harley: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:23) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:36) Jason Robertson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:15) Jack Quinn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:58) Conor Timmins: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:54) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:27) Mikko Rantanen: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:19) Jack Quinn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:55) Tyler Myers: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:41) Michael Bunting: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:39) Michael Bunting: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:04) Logan Stanley: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:43) Tanner Pearson: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 19:30) Lian Bichsel: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:41) Josh Norris: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 2:34) Jack Quinn: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 3:34) Bowen Byram: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 3:59) Josh Doan: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.24 (OT 4:03) Jack Quinn: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:17) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:19) Josh Norris: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:48) Zach Benson: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.35 (P2 3:32) Esa Lindell: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:24) Alex Tuch: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:09) Justin Hryckowian: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:00)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
96 Mikko Rantanen 000 -2 10.05 1018:33
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 -1 20.07 1018:11
95 Matt Duchene 000 -2 00.00 1017:26
21 Jason Robertson 000 -1 50.08 0017:26
49 Justin Hryckowian 112 +1 30.26 2017:18
22 Mavrik Bourque 101 0 30.21 1017:06
18 Sam Steel 000 -1 00.00 2015:43
14 Jamie Benn 011 +1 00.00 0013:46
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 20.05 0013:36
73 Adam Erne 000 0 30.29 3113:23
12 Radek Faksa 000 0 30.31 3213:09
58 Michael Bunting 000 +1 80.18 1012:36
Defense
55 Thomas Harley 000 -1 60.08 0322:45
23 Esa Lindell 112 0 50.20 1222:14
57 Tyler Myers 000 0 50.13 1321:30
6 Lian Bichsel 000 0 30.04 3020:37
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 10.01 0120:26
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 011 0 10.02 1215:39
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 24321 .875 3.10 +0.10

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
6 Zach Benson 112 +2 50.53 0124:22
89 Alex Tuch 101 +1 20.05 0220:36
22 Jack Quinn 000 -1 110.90 1019:29
19 Peyton Krebs 000 0 30.19 3019:00
70 Tanner Pearson 011 0 20.19 2117:04
9 Josh Norris 101 +1 20.22 0316:55
12 Jordan Greenway 000 0 30.02 0016:03
91 Josh Doan 000 +1 30.40 0015:57
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 -1 10.08 6014:59
48 Tyson Kozak 011 0 10.01 4113:34
44 Josh Dunne 000 -1 50.15 1111:52
Defense
25 Owen Power 022 +1 30.01 0222:17
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 80.19 1020:16
24 Bowen Byram 000 -1 10.05 0019:35
21 Conor Timmins 000 0 50.07 1216:58
7 Michael Kesselring 000 +2 20.03 1015:03
73 Zach Metsa 000 -1 10.00 0114:43
2 Luke Schenn 000 +1 10.01 3012:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Colten Ellis 28325 .893 1.98 -1.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
49 Justin Hryckowian C +2.05 +1.30 +0.17 +0.53 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 17:18
23 Esa Lindell D +1.96 +1.45 +0.13 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 22:14
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +1.42 +0.55 +0.01 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 15:39
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.98 +0.75 +0.14 +0.23 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 17:06
12 Radek Faksa C +0.98 0.00 +0.20 +0.72 0.00 -0.04 +0.10 — 13:09
73 Adam Erne L +0.91 0.00 +0.19 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:23
14 Jamie Benn L +0.83 +0.70 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:46
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.67 0.00 +0.03 +0.66 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:36
57 Tyler Myers D +0.43 0.00 +0.08 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:30
55 Thomas Harley D +0.35 0.00 +0.05 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:45
58 Michael Bunting L +0.30 0.00 +0.12 +0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:36
6 Lian Bichsel D +0.14 0.00 +0.03 +0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:37
29 Jake Oettinger G +0.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.10 65:00
21 Jason Robertson L -0.08 0.00 +0.05 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:26
53 Wyatt Johnston C -0.33 0.00 +0.05 -0.39 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 18:11
95 Matt Duchene C -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:26
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.41 0.00 +0.01 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:26
18 Sam Steel C -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:43
96 Mikko Rantanen R -0.43 0.00 +0.03 -0.38 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 18:33

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Zach Benson L +1.93 +1.45 +0.35 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:22
25 Owen Power D +1.16 +1.10 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:17
89 Alex Tuch R +0.99 +0.75 +0.03 -0.05 +0.15 -0.01 +0.12 — 20:36
9 Josh Norris C +0.82 +0.75 +0.15 -0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 16:55
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.69 +0.70 +0.13 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:04
64 Logan Stanley D +0.62 0.00 +0.12 +0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:16
22 Jack Quinn R +0.56 0.00 +0.59 -0.15 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:29
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.39 0.00 +0.12 +0.26 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 19:00
44 Josh Dunne C +0.20 0.00 +0.10 +0.02 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 11:52
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.19 0.00 +0.05 +0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:59
21 Conor Timmins D +0.17 0.00 +0.04 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 16:58
91 Josh Doan R -0.03 0.00 +0.26 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:57
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:03
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.12 +0.70 0.00 -0.87 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:34
12 Jordan Greenway L -0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:03
73 Zach Metsa D -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:43
5 Luke Schenn D -0.62 0.00 +0.01 -0.46 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:41
4 Bowen Byram D -0.64 0.00 +0.03 -0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:35
92 Colten Ellis G -1.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.02 65:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.