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Ottawa SenatorsOTT 5–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 122 5 34
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 301 4 25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:35 TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (1)PP Jake Guentzel (1), Brayden Point (1) · snap xG 0.22 0–1 ▶
7:00 TBL Brayden Point (1) Jake Guentzel (2), Darren Raddysh (1) · wrist xG 0.08 0–2 ▶
10:18 OTT Dylan Cozens (1)PP Brady Tkachuk (1), Jake Sanderson (1) · slap xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
14:46 TBL Nikita Kucherov (1)PP Victor Hedman (1), Brayden Point (2) · wrist xG 0.14 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
0:42 OTT Artem Zub (1) Brady Tkachuk (2), Tim Stützle (1) · wrist xG 0.01 2–3 ▶
15:09 OTT Shane Pinto (1) Artem Zub (1), Brady Tkachuk (3) · wrist xG 0.16 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
18:13 OTT Shane Pinto (2) Jake Sanderson (2) · snap xG 0.08 4–3 ▶
19:12 OTT Claude Giroux (1)EN Shane Pinto (1), Artem Zub (2) · wrist xG 0.59 5–3 ▶
19:46 TBL Nikita Kucherov (2) Darren Raddysh (2), Victor Hedman (2) · wrist xG 0.02 5–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 65%Deserve to win35% TBL
OTTTBL
3.70Expected goals2.27
5Goals (no shootout)4
2.43Expected goals, 5 on 51.24
67Shot attempts49
46Unblocked attempts38
34Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
15:50 OTT No shift No shift · MacDermid, 17:37 on the bench
No shift after 16:59 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (2:13) before that
18:46 TBL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 4–3
With 1:14 left; OTT scored at 19:12 of the 3rd (5–3)

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Tim Stützle: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:47) Thomas Chabot: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:55) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:49) Victor Hedman: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:51) Emil Lilleberg: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:34) Ridly Greig: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:42) Max Crozier: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:42) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:03) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:32) Ridly Greig: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:10) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:45) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:25) Max Crozier: backhand, 125 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:45) Darren Raddysh: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:20) Mitchell Chaffee: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:42) Emil Lilleberg: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:18) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:32) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:33) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 13:10) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:47) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:20) Jake Guentzel: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:33) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:53) Claude Giroux: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:57) Ridly Greig: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:05) Ridly Greig: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 17:07) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:35) Nick Cousins: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:50) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:45) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:48) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:53) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:00) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:12) Jake Sanderson: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:58) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 3:34) Max Crozier: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:19) Max Crozier: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:03) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:43) Artem Zub: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:55) Shane Pinto: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:02) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:35) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:42) Nikolas Matinpalo: wrist, 140 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:44) David Perron: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 7:52) Tim Stützle: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:49) Claude Giroux: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:47) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:52) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:03) Tim Stützle: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 11:19) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:30) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:48) Ridly Greig: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:16) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:30) David Perron: wrist, 138 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:24) Nikita Kucherov: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 13:46) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:17) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:56) Artem Zub: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:27) Artem Zub: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:36) Artem Zub: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:43) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:49) Brandon Hagel: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:38) Ridly Greig: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:05) Lars Eller: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:28) Shane Pinto: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:06) Artem Zub: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:12) Victor Hedman: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:51) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:46) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:34) Curtis Douglas: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:38) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:18) Thomas Chabot: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:53) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:57) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:33) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:12) Oliver Bjorkstrand: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 5:35) Brayden Point: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:00) Dylan Cozens: GOAL, slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:18) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:46) Artem Zub: GOAL, wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:42) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 15:09) Shane Pinto: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:13) Claude Giroux: GOAL, wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.59 (P3 19:12) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Brady Tkachuk 033 +1 90.56 3019:24
12 Shane Pinto 213 +2 40.28 0019:21
18 Tim Stützle 011 +1 70.40 1019:03
22 Michael Amadio 000 0 00.00 3118:54
71 Ridly Greig 000 +1 60.68 1018:09
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 +1 20.08 7116:34
24 Dylan Cozens 101 -1 40.15 3115:35
28 Claude Giroux 101 +2 30.64 2015:11
20 Lars Eller 000 0 10.06 4114:20
16 David Perron 000 -1 30.18 1012:37
21 Nick Cousins 000 0 10.03 3010:46
23 Kurtis MacDermid 000 0 00.00 1002:13
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 022 +3 60.43 2323:10
72 Thomas Chabot 000 0 60.11 0322:00
2 Artem Zub 123 +4 90.11 2020:44
4 Nick Jensen 000 -1 00.00 2019:35
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 -1 20.00 1014:18
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 -1 40.00 1013:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 25421 .840 2.27 -1.73

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 022 -2 20.37 0222:32
86 Nikita Kucherov 202 -2 90.63 0020:55
21 Brayden Point 123 -2 10.08 0119:40
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 30.04 1017:08
38 Brandon Hagel 000 0 60.19 2015:40
71 Anthony Cirelli 000 0 20.17 2014:56
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 101 0 50.34 2114:39
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 30.03 4111:56
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 00.00 2111:52
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 10.01 2005:09
Defense
77 Victor Hedman 022 -1 20.13 1323:49
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 0 20.01 4119:02
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 -1 40.05 0118:45
81 Erik Cernak 000 -1 00.00 2518:25
24 Max Crozier 000 0 40.15 4017:52
43 Darren Raddysh 022 -1 40.04 1117:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33429 .879 3.12 -0.88

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
12 Shane Pinto C +3.58 +2.20 +0.18 +1.19 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:21
2 Artem Zub D +3.12 +2.00 +0.07 +1.20 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:44
7 Brady Tkachuk L +3.04 +1.95 +0.36 +0.62 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:24
85 Jake Sanderson D +2.74 +1.25 +0.28 +0.93 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:10
28 Claude Giroux R +2.36 +0.75 +0.42 +1.22 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:11
18 Tim Stützle C +1.28 +0.55 +0.26 +0.47 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 19:03
72 Thomas Chabot D +1.23 0.00 +0.07 +1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:00
71 Ridly Greig C +1.20 0.00 +0.44 +0.80 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 18:09
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.82 0.00 +0.05 +0.57 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:34
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.72 +0.75 +0.10 -0.20 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 15:35
3 Nick Jensen D +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:35
89 Lars Eller C +0.24 0.00 +0.04 +0.09 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 — 14:20
57 David Perron L +0.04 0.00 +0.12 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:37
21 Nick Cousins C +0.01 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:46
23 Kurtis MacDermid L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 2:13
22 Michael Amadio R -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 18:54
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:35
37 Donovan Sebrango D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:18
35 Linus Ullmark G -1.73 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.73 59:53

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Brayden Point C +0.84 +1.85 +0.05 -1.05 0.00 -0.02 +0.01 — 19:40
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.60 +1.25 +0.02 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:33
77 Victor Hedman D +0.60 +1.25 +0.08 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 23:49
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.57 +1.40 +0.24 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:32
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.56 +1.50 +0.41 -1.31 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:55
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.40 +0.75 +0.22 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:39
14 Conor Geekie C +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.11 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 10:39
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:56
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:09
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.01 0.00 +0.11 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 14:56
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.10 -0.15 -0.04 +0.05 — 11:52
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:45
81 Erik Cernak D -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 18:25
41 Mitchell Chaffee R -0.24 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:24
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.27 0.00 +0.03 -0.45 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:08
38 Brandon Hagel L -0.31 0.00 +0.12 -0.27 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 15:40
24 Max Crozier D -0.39 0.00 +0.10 -0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:52
78 Emil Lilleberg D -0.42 0.00 +0.01 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:02
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.88 58:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.