hockeystats.io

Washington CapitalsWSH 4–2 Final New York IslandersNYI

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 220 4 29
New York IslandersNYI 011 2 36

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:50 WSH Martin Fehérváry (1) Alex Ovechkin (1), John Carlson (1) · backhand xG 0.31 1–0 ▶
13:52 WSH Aliaksei Protas (1) Jakob Chychrun (2), Tom Wilson (1) · snap xG 0.13 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
9:50 WSH Ryan Leonard (1) Jakob Chychrun (3), Aliaksei Protas (2) · wrist xG 0.05 3–0 ▶
15:30 WSH Aliaksei Protas (2) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.13 4–0 ▶
18:51 NYI Anthony Duclair (1)PP Bo Horvat (1), Kyle Palmieri (1) · wrist xG 0.06 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:28 NYI Matthew Schaefer (1)PP Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (2) · poke xG 0.36 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 77%Deserve to win23% NYI
WSHNYI
4.92Expected goals2.26
4Goals (no shootout)2
3.40Expected goals, 5 on 51.23
69Shot attempts71
44Unblocked attempts50
29Shots on goal36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
15:00 WSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.33–0.06
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:40 to 15:40 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
15:56 NYI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Sorokin, down 4–2
With 4:04 left
19:28 NYI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Sorokin, down 4–2
With 0:32 left

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots
John Carlson: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:42) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:10) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:59) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 5:34) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:53) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:13) Anthony Beauvillier: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:15) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:42) Martin Fehérváry: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:45) Bo Horvat: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:15) Bo Horvat: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:36) Pierre-Luc Dubois: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:53) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:20) Ryan Leonard: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 14:48) Hendrix Lapierre: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:58) Trevor van Riemsdyk: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:12) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:25) Anders Lee: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:14) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 129 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:17) Nic Dowd: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 0:29) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 0:44) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:38) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:40) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:23) Adam Pelech: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:26) Maxim Shabanov: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:16) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 3:39) Maxim Shabanov: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:49) Maxim Tsyplakov: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:01) Marc Gatcomb: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:40) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:57) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:38) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:10) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 6:51) Ryan Leonard: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:56) Dylan Strome: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:06) Anders Lee: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:26) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 9:00) Dylan Strome: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 9:12) Connor McMichael: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:41) Connor McMichael: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:42) Bo Horvat: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:24) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:54) Bo Horvat: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:07) Anders Lee: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:22) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 14:52) Pierre-Luc Dubois: deflected, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:55) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:43) John Carlson: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:27) Aliaksei Protas: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:30) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:22) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 19:57) Alexander Romanov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:09) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:41) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:08) Kyle Palmieri: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:22) Kyle Palmieri: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:23) Bo Horvat: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:24) Bo Horvat: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:24) Bo Horvat: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 5:10) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:17) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:25) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:34) Anthony Beauvillier: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:15) Matthew Schaefer: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:37) Kyle Palmieri: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:57) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:45) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:31) Maxim Tsyplakov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:31) Tom Wilson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:20) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:23) John Carlson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:29) Maxim Shabanov: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:59) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:01) Martin Fehérváry: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:20) Justin Sourdif: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:36) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:12) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:58) Aliaksei Protas: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:44) Connor McMichael: snap, 96 ft, xG 0.50 (P3 16:20) John Carlson: wrist, 147 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 17:11) Ryan Pulock: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:17) Emil Heineman: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:54) Emil Heineman: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:04) Anders Lee: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:52) Kyle Palmieri: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:53) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:30) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:44) Martin Fehérváry: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 1:50) Aliaksei Protas: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 13:52) Ryan Leonard: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:50) Aliaksei Protas: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:30) Anthony Duclair: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:51) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, poke, 8 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 4:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Aliaksei Protas 213 +3 81.05 0019:19
43 Tom Wilson 011 +2 40.02 2119:18
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 000 +2 60.42 0118:30
17 Dylan Strome 000 +1 30.24 0118:08
8 Alex Ovechkin 011 +1 50.34 2017:28
77 Connor McMichael 000 +2 50.63 1116:01
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 20.19 0114:22
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 10.00 6013:50
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 40.34 2012:37
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 0 40.37 1010:52
9 Ryan Leonard 101 +1 50.34 3010:01
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 10.03 0109:09
Defense
74 John Carlson 011 +1 50.56 0322:44
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 +1 40.03 3221:01
3 Matt Roy 000 0 10.00 2420:06
6 Jakob Chychrun 022 +3 60.01 0119:45
42 Martin Fehérváry 101 +1 30.33 1418:53
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 +2 20.01 0015:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 36234 .944 2.26 +0.26

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 000 0 40.14 0221:28
21 Kyle Palmieri 022 -2 70.17 2220:41
14 Bo Horvat 022 -1 70.31 0020:37
11 Anthony Duclair 101 0 50.17 0019:25
51 Emil Heineman 000 -1 40.13 6015:54
72 Anders Lee 000 0 40.15 0115:42
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -3 10.04 2115:35
49 Maxim Shabanov 000 -2 50.26 0012:53
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 -3 20.12 0212:49
72 Maxim Tsyplakov 000 0 20.08 2011:14
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 00.00 7010:57
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 10.02 7008:33
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 101 0 140.57 0126:04
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -1 40.02 0218:48
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 -2 40.03 0318:20
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 30.00 3217:22
3 Adam Pelech 000 -1 20.01 0216:57
28 Alexander Romanov 000 -3 20.03 4416:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 29425 .862 3.95 -0.05

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Aliaksei Protas C +4.78 +2.05 +0.68 +1.76 +0.30 -0.01 0.00 — 19:19
6 Jakob Chychrun D +2.86 +1.40 +0.01 +1.56 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:45
74 John Carlson D +2.51 +0.55 +0.36 +1.45 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:44
42 Martin Fehérváry D +2.46 +0.75 +0.22 +1.31 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 18:53
43 Tom Wilson R +1.90 +0.55 +0.01 +1.31 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:18
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L +1.58 0.00 +0.27 +1.24 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 18:30
8 Alex Ovechkin L +1.44 +0.70 +0.22 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:28
9 Ryan Leonard R +1.37 +0.75 +0.22 +0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:01
17 Dylan Strome C +1.29 0.00 +0.16 +1.10 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 — 18:08
24 Connor McMichael C +1.05 0.00 +0.41 +0.58 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 16:01
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D +0.97 0.00 +0.01 +0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:02
34 Justin Sourdif R +0.91 0.00 +0.22 +0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:37
26 Nic Dowd C +0.72 0.00 +0.13 +0.54 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 14:22
22 Brandon Duhaime R +0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.56 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 13:50
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +0.50 0.00 +0.24 +0.27 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:52
38 Rasmus Sandin D +0.39 0.00 +0.02 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:01
3 Matt Roy D +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 20:06
48 Logan Thompson G +0.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.26 59:44
29 Hendrix Lapierre C -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.11 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 9:09

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.81 +0.75 +0.37 -0.47 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 26:04
14 Bo Horvat C +0.49 +1.25 +0.20 -0.96 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 20:37
21 Kyle Palmieri C +0.32 +1.25 +0.11 -1.00 -0.15 +0.01 +0.10 — 20:41
11 Anthony Duclair L +0.06 +0.75 +0.11 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:25
30 Ilya Sorokin G -0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.05 56:09
27 Anders Lee L -0.06 0.00 +0.10 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:42
10 Simon Holmstrom R -0.38 0.00 +0.08 -0.67 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 12:49
13 Mathew Barzal C -0.47 0.00 +0.09 -0.42 -0.15 -0.06 +0.08 — 21:28
7 Maxim Tsyplakov R -0.54 0.00 +0.05 -0.56 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:14
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:33
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 10:57
49 Max Shabanov R -0.67 0.00 +0.17 -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 12:53
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.81 0.00 +0.01 -0.88 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:48
77 Tony DeAngelo D -0.83 0.00 +0.02 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 18:20
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.89 0.00 +0.03 -1.03 0.00 +0.08 +0.03 — 15:35
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.95 0.00 0.00 -1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:22
3 Adam Pelech D -1.11 0.00 0.00 -1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:57
28 Alexander Romanov D -1.15 0.00 +0.02 -1.33 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 16:32
51 Emil Heineman L -1.29 0.00 +0.08 -1.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.