Washington Capitals
Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference
Current Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | DIFF | PTS % | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 29 | 23 | 7 | 65 | 189 | 177 | +12 | 55.1% |
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Playoff Probabilities
Based on 100,000 simulations run on Feb 20, 2026
Analysis
Summary
The Washington Capitals are on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture with a 20.6% chance to qualify, and their odds have stalled despite hovering near .500 hockey. Projected for 91.2 points against a cutoff near 96.7, Washington needs a strong finish and help from multiple teams ahead to extend their season.
Record and Recent Performance
Washington sits at 29-23-7 through 59 games for 65 points and a 55.1% points percentage, which places them ninth in the conference race. Their goal differential of +12, driven by 189 goals for and 177 against, suggests a competent but unspectacular team, while a 54.2% overall strength rating reflects middling underlying performance. Recent form at 55.0% mirrors their season-long output, and the stark home-road split, with a 59.9% strength at home versus 47.5% away, highlights inconsistency that has limited upward movement.
The Competition
The Capitals face a crowded and challenging field, with the New York Islanders currently holding the cutoff spot at 69 points and projected for 96.7, while Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Montreal all project comfortably above the line between roughly 97 and 101 points. Columbus is the most immediate threat behind Washington, tied at 65 points but with games in hand and a much stronger 60.7% team rating, giving them a 56.4% playoff chance. With five teams ahead projecting at least five more points than Washington, gaining ground requires both Capitals surges and notable collapses from multiple rivals.
Remaining Schedule
Washington has 23 games remaining, split almost evenly with 11 at home and 12 on the road, and the schedule rates as average with opponent strength at 53.5%, essentially league normal. Based on that slate, they are expected to earn about 26.2 more points, which would leave them short of the projected playoff threshold. To close the gap, the Capitals likely need to outperform expectations by at least five to six points, particularly by maximizing home games where they have been clearly stronger.
Outlook
The Capitals’ path to the playoffs is narrow and demanding, requiring a noticeable uptick in results and some favorable movement in the standings above them. While not mathematically dire, the combination of average team strength, limited remaining games, and strong competition makes Washington a long shot unless they find another gear quickly.
Required Win Percentage for Playoffs
Win percentage needed in remaining games to achieve each playoff probability threshold. A checkmark (✓) means the team has already reached that threshold. A dash (—) means the threshold is impossible to reach.
Playoff Probability Breakdown
Understanding the factors that drive the 20.4% playoff probability
📊 Schedule Context
🎯 Key Factors
🏒 Playoff Picture
Playoff probabilities are calculated through Monte Carlo simulation, running 10,000+ scenarios of the remaining season. Each game is simulated based on team strength ratings, home ice advantage (~55% win rate), and opponent matchups.
Points Distribution vs. Cutline
Projected to finish with 88–94 points (middle 50%). The playoff cutline is typically 95–97 points. Finishes above the cutline in 21.3% of simulations.
Team Projection
Playoff Cutline
Playoff Race — Eastern Conference
| # | Team | PTS | GP | Left | STR | L10 | SOS | Proj PTS | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 72 | 57 | 25 | 58.5% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 101.2 | 87.5% | |
| 5 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 59.0% | 65.0% | 54.5% | 99.3 | 81.8% | |
| 6 | 70 | 56 | 26 | 62.9% | 80.0% | 55.4% | 101.2 | 91.3% | |
| 7 | 69 | 57 | 25 | 59.9% | 75.0% | 56.0% | 97.7 | 70.1% | |
| 8 | 69 | 58 | 24 | 55.9% | 60.0% | 54.0% | 96.6 | 63.9% | |
| 9 | 65 | 59 | 23 | 54.2% | 55.0% | 53.5% | 91.2 | 20.4% | |
| 10 | 65 | 56 | 26 | 60.7% | 90.0% | 54.6% | 95.9 | 56.3% | |
| 11 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 55.5% | 65.0% | 53.8% | 91.8 | 20.4% | |
| 12 | 63 | 57 | 25 | 49.8% | 45.0% | 54.3% | 89.8 | 9.1% | |
Team Strength Metrics
| Overall Strength | Home Strength | Away Strength | Pythagorean Win % | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.2% | 59.9% | 47.5% | 53.3% | 55.0% |
Player Statistics
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | Tom Wilson | R | 50 | 23 | 26 | 49 | +20 | 0 | 132 | 33 | 19:22 | |
| 8 | Alex Ovechkin | L | 59 | 22 | 26 | 48 | +2 | 0 | 98 | 10 | 17:51 | |
| 17 | Dylan Strome | C | 57 | 16 | 31 | 47 | +9 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 18:34 | |
| 6 | Jakob Chychrun | D | 57 | 21 | 25 | 46 | +23 | 0 | 46 | 80 | 23:39 | |
| 74 | John Carlson | D | 55 | 10 | 36 | 46 | +11 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 22:51 | |
| 21 | Aliaksei Protas | C | 56 | 19 | 19 | 38 | +14 | 0 | 26 | 32 | 18:25 | |
| 24 | Connor McMichael | C | 55 | 8 | 23 | 31 | +6 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 17:02 | |
| 9 | Ryan Leonard | R | 52 | 10 | 20 | 30 | +4 | 0 | 74 | 18 | 14:27 | |
| 34 | Justin Sourdif | R | 55 | 12 | 14 | 26 | +12 | 0 | 72 | 25 | 14:39 | |
| 53 | Ethen Frank | C | 48 | 11 | 12 | 23 | +8 | 0 | 43 | 33 | 12:45 | |
| 72 | Anthony Beauvillier | L | 59 | 12 | 8 | 20 | +3 | 0 | 75 | 32 | 15:46 | |
| 42 | Martin Fehérváry | D | 58 | 4 | 16 | 20 | +11 | 0 | 72 | 119 | 18:59 | |
| 38 | Rasmus Sandin | D | 52 | 2 | 16 | 18 | +4 | 0 | 60 | 84 | 18:51 | |
| 26 | Nic Dowd | C | 51 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -5 | 0 | 97 | 41 | 15:38 | |
| 3 | Matt Roy | D | 56 | 1 | 14 | 15 | +13 | 0 | 83 | 110 | 20:41 | |
| 29 | Hendrix Lapierre | C | 56 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 16 | 8:27 | |
| 15 | Sonny Milano | L | 31 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 8:53 | |
| 57 | Trevor van Riemsdyk | D | 45 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 6 | 65 | 15:33 | |
| 22 | Brandon Duhaime | R | 59 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 117 | 38 | 11:00 | |
| 47 | Declan Chisholm | D | 21 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 13:53 | |
| 80 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | L | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15:49 | |
| 52 | Dylan McIlrath | D | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23 | 6 | 9:11 | |
| 20 | Brett Leason | R | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 8:34 |
Recent Games (Last 10)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 05 | vs NSH | 4 - 2 | W |
| Feb 03 | @ PHI | 4 - 2 | L |
| Feb 02 | vs NYI | 4 - 1 | W |
| Jan 31 | vs CAR | 4 - 3 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 29 | @ DET | 3 - 4 | W (OT/SO) |
| Jan 27 | @ SEA | 5 - 1 | L |
| Jan 24 | @ EDM | 6 - 5 | L (OT/SO) |
| Jan 23 | @ CGY | 1 - 3 | W |
| Jan 21 | @ VAN | 4 - 3 | L |
| Jan 19 | @ COL | 5 - 2 | L |
Upcoming Games
| Date | Opponent | Location | Opp Strength | Exp Pts | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 19:00 | vs Philadelphia Flyers | Home | 48.5% | 1.24 | WSH (56%) |
| Feb 27, 19:00 | vs Vegas Golden Knights | Home | 52.5% | 1.19 | WSH (54%) |
| Feb 28, 19:00 | @ Montréal Canadiens | Away | 58.5% | 1.08 | MTL (53%) |
| Mar 03, 19:00 | vs Utah Mammoth | Home | 59.6% | 1.21 | WSH (55%) |
| Mar 07, 12:30 | @ Boston Bruins | Away | 59.9% | 0.95 | BOS (60%) |
| Mar 09, 19:00 | vs Calgary Flames | Home | 44.6% | 1.39 | WSH (65%) |
| Mar 11, 19:30 | @ Philadelphia Flyers | Away | 48.5% | 1.10 | PHI (51%) |
| Mar 12, 19:00 | @ Buffalo Sabres | Away | 59.0% | 1.01 | BUF (56%) |
| Mar 14, 15:00 | vs Boston Bruins | Home | 59.9% | 1.21 | WSH (55%) |
| Mar 18, 19:30 | vs Ottawa Senators | Home | 55.5% | 1.17 | WSH (53%) |
| Total Expected (Next 10 games): | 11.5 pts | ||||
Expected points are calculated based on win probabilities: (2 × win%) + (0.25 × loss%) for overtime losses. Opponent strength ratings help identify which games are easier or harder opportunities to earn points.