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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 4–3 Final Boston BruinsBOS

Monday, October 13, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 220 4 23
Boston BruinsBOS 030 3 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:09 TBL Anthony Cirelli (1) Jake Guentzel (3), Gage Goncalves (2) · tip-in xG 0.24 1–0 ▶
13:16 TBL Anthony Cirelli (2) Jake Guentzel (4), Gage Goncalves (3) · wrist xG 0.10 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:39 TBL Yanni Gourde (2) Pontus Holmberg (1), J.J. Moser (1) · snap xG 0.23 3–0 ▶
1:09 BOS Casey Mittelstadt (2) Viktor Arvidsson (1), Pavel Zacha (3) · wrist xG 0.07 3–1 ▶
3:37 TBL Pontus Holmberg (1) Oliver Bjorkstrand (2), Max Crozier (3) · wrist xG 0.10 4–1 ▶
5:31 BOS Jordan Harris (1) David Pastrnak (4) · snap xG 0.07 4–2 ▶
11:35 BOS Morgan Geekie (2) Pavel Zacha (4) · wrist xG 0.04 4–3 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 69%Deserve to win31% BOS
TBLBOS
3.56Expected goals2.08
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.87Expected goals, 5 on 50.91
54Shot attempts68
42Unblocked attempts53
23Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced BOS 1.33–0.18
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:40 to 10:40 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
18:20 TBL No shift No shift · Geekie, 10:01 on the bench
No shift after 3:58 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:12) before that

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BOS shoots
Elias Lindholm: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:19) Andrew Peeke: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:16) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 6:40) Jordan Harris: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:49) Andrew Peeke: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:53) Casey Mittelstadt: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:55) Brayden Point: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:01) Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:11) Pavel Zacha: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:19) Brayden Point: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:48) Brayden Point: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.43 (P1 8:51) Gage Goncalves: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:11) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:19) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:22) Victor Hedman: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:25) Jordan Harris: wrist, 125 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:29) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:40) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:01) Yanni Gourde: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:44) Mitchell Chaffee: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 13:53) Michael Eyssimont: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:29) Henri Jokiharju: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:34) Mason Lohrei: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:19) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:13) Nikita Zadorov: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:42) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:52) Henri Jokiharju: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:26) Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:29) David Pastrnak: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:00) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:37) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:57) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:07) Sean Kuraly: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:34) Mark Kastelic: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:45) Michael Eyssimont: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:17) Max Crozier: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:34) Oliver Bjorkstrand: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:36) Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:46) Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:51) Fraser Minten: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:54) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:02) Brandon Hagel: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:04) Sean Kuraly: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:40) Charlie McAvoy: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:48) David Pastrnak: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:57) Mason Lohrei: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:25) Emil Lilleberg: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:55) Henri Jokiharju: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:43) Erik Cernak: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:07) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:08) David Pastrnak: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:26) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:48) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:12) Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:37) Mason Lohrei: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:46) Mason Lohrei: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:27) Conor Geekie: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:37) Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 149 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:16) Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:27) Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:21) Erik Cernak: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:23) Sean Kuraly: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:59) Jordan Harris: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:07) Sean Kuraly: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:09) Marat Khusnutdinov: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:15) Curtis Douglas: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:54) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:09) Morgan Geekie: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:18) Elias Lindholm: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 7:13) Marat Khusnutdinov: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:22) David Pastrnak: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:34) Max Crozier: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:56) Michael Eyssimont: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:11) Victor Hedman: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:15) Brayden Point: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:53) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:22) David Pastrnak: tip-in, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:47) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:11) Emil Lilleberg: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:32) Victor Hedman: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:44) Mason Lohrei: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:47) David Pastrnak: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:50) Jordan Harris: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:13) Morgan Geekie: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:22) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 18:29) David Pastrnak: slap, 101 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:37) Charlie McAvoy: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:00) Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:32) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 1:09) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:16) Yanni Gourde: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 0:39) Casey Mittelstadt: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:09) Pontus Holmberg: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:37) Jordan Harris: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:31) Morgan Geekie: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 000 -1 60.27 0322:01
71 Anthony Cirelli 202 +1 20.34 2120:43
86 Nikita Kucherov 000 -2 70.45 0019:24
59 Jake Guentzel 022 +1 20.26 0018:59
21 Brayden Point 000 -1 40.71 1118:03
93 Gage Goncalves 022 +1 10.02 1115:46
37 Yanni Gourde 101 +1 60.61 2015:34
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 011 +2 30.14 1012:14
29 Pontus Holmberg 112 +2 30.29 1011:46
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 10.03 2004:42
Defense
90 J.J. Moser 011 0 40.00 3024:23
77 Victor Hedman 000 0 50.09 0224:10
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 +1 10.02 0122:57
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 20.05 3419:10
24 Max Crozier 011 +1 30.02 1014:11
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 0 20.02 2012:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 33330 .909 2.08 -0.92

Boston Bruins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 David Pastrnak 011 -1 120.14 4123:17
39 Morgan Geekie 101 -1 40.23 3020:42
28 Elias Lindholm 000 -2 20.24 2020:34
18 Pavel Zacha 022 +3 20.04 1119:34
33 Viktor Arvidsson 011 +1 40.11 0016:33
11 Casey Mittelstadt 101 +2 20.10 0015:15
81 Michael Eyssimont 000 -2 60.14 1013:18
93 Fraser Minten 000 -2 10.04 0113:14
84 Tanner Jeannot 000 -2 20.00 4012:19
92 Marat Khusnutdinov 000 0 20.07 0010:29
52 Sean Kuraly 000 0 40.17 1309:26
47 Mark Kastelic 000 0 10.07 3009:20
Defense
73 Charlie McAvoy 000 0 60.21 0122:23
6 Mason Lohrei 000 0 70.28 2219:21
20 Andrew Peeke 000 -1 20.04 2018:37
91 Nikita Zadorov 000 0 10.00 7217:41
43 Jordan Harris 101 0 60.12 1016:59
20 Henri Jokiharju 000 -1 40.05 0116:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joonas Korpisalo 23419 .826 3.17 -0.83

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Pontus Holmberg R +2.56 +1.45 +0.19 +1.21 -0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 11:46
37 Yanni Gourde C +2.30 +0.75 +0.40 +1.26 0.00 -0.05 -0.06 — 15:34
71 Anthony Cirelli C +2.19 +1.50 +0.22 +0.56 0.00 -0.14 +0.05 — 20:43
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.10 +1.40 +0.17 +0.56 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:59
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +2.06 +0.70 +0.09 +1.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:14
90 J.J. Moser D +1.60 +0.55 0.00 +0.92 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 24:23
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.54 +1.10 +0.01 +0.57 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 15:46
24 Max Crozier D +1.50 +0.55 +0.01 +0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:11
86 Nikita Kucherov R +1.16 0.00 +0.29 +0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:24
21 Brayden Point C +1.14 0.00 +0.46 +0.63 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:03
27 Ryan McDonagh D +1.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.95 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:57
38 Brandon Hagel L +0.92 0.00 +0.17 +0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:01
81 Erik Cernak D +0.90 0.00 +0.03 +0.82 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 19:10
77 Victor Hedman D +0.81 0.00 +0.06 +0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 24:10
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.57 0.00 +0.01 +0.77 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 12:11
41 Mitchell Chaffee R +0.12 0.00 +0.12 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:23
14 Conor Geekie C +0.11 0.00 +0.04 +0.07 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 6:12
42 Curtis Douglas C -0.18 0.00 +0.02 -0.24 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 4:42
31 Jonas Johansson G -0.92 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.92 59:38

Boston Bruins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Pavel Zacha C +1.23 +1.25 +0.03 -0.13 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 19:34
71 Viktor Arvidsson L +1.01 +0.70 +0.07 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:33
11 Casey Mittelstadt C +0.89 +0.75 +0.07 -0.11 +0.15 +0.02 +0.02 — 15:15
43 Jordan Harris D +0.72 +0.75 +0.08 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:59
52 Sean Kuraly C +0.18 0.00 +0.11 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 9:26
47 Mark Kastelic C +0.17 0.00 +0.04 -0.01 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:20
92 Marat Khusnutdinov C +0.06 0.00 +0.05 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:29
88 David Pastrnak R -0.24 +0.70 +0.09 -1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:17
39 Morgan Geekie C -0.25 +0.75 +0.15 -1.31 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 20:42
26 Andrew Peeke D -0.44 0.00 +0.03 -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 18:37
6 Mason Lohrei D -0.77 0.00 +0.18 -1.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 19:21
91 Nikita Zadorov D -0.83 0.00 0.00 -0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:41
70 Joonas Korpisalo G -0.83 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.83 57:59
93 Fraser Minten C -0.90 0.00 +0.03 -1.03 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 13:14
20 Henri Jokiharju D -0.98 0.00 +0.03 -1.05 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:35
28 Elias Lindholm C -1.02 0.00 +0.16 -1.25 0.00 +0.10 -0.02 — 20:34
73 Charlie McAvoy D -1.13 0.00 +0.14 -1.30 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:23
84 Tanner Jeannot L -1.17 0.00 0.00 -1.03 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 12:19
81 Michael Eyssimont C -1.53 0.00 +0.09 -1.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:18

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.