hockeystats.io

Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–3 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 200 2 24
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 111 3 31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:58 CBJ Kent Johnson (1) Boone Jenner (3), Adam Fantilli (2) · backhand xG 0.25 0–1 ▶
12:42 TBL Ryan McDonagh (2) Pontus Holmberg (2), Erik Cernak (1) · wrist xG 0.02 1–1 ▶
16:22 TBL Anthony Cirelli (3)PP Jake Guentzel (5), Victor Hedman (5) · backhand xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
13:59 CBJ Damon Severson (1) Mathieu Olivier (1), Charlie Coyle (2) · wrist xG 0.13 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:15 CBJ Kirill Marchenko (5) Dmitri Voronkov (3), Zach Werenski (3) · wrist xG 0.16 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 52%Deserve to win48% CBJ
TBLCBJ
3.02Expected goals2.91
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.45Expected goals, 5 on 52.57
62Shot attempts63
43Unblocked attempts47
24Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
19:30 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.61–0.12
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:30 to 19:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots
Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:12) Victor Hedman: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:45) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:11) Conor Geekie: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:28) Charlie Coyle: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:23) Damon Severson: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:48) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:55) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:23) Boone Jenner: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:08) Ivan Provorov: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:13) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:35) Ivan Provorov: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 8:37) Boone Jenner: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:47) Jake Christiansen: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:53) Cole Sillinger: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:02) Kirill Marchenko: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:08) Victor Hedman: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:34) Egor Chinakhov: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:08) Brandon Hagel: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 11:44) Brayden Point: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:49) Boone Jenner: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:15) Zach Werenski: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:13) Victor Hedman: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:30) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:57) Kent Johnson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:07) Jake Christiansen: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:15) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:38) Zach Werenski: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:00) Sean Monahan: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:34) Ivan Provorov: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:25) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:47) Kirill Marchenko: poke, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:01) Mathieu Olivier: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 6:09) Emil Lilleberg: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:34) Cole Sillinger: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:50) Zachary Aston-Reese: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:08) Boone Jenner: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:32) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:34) Ivan Provorov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:26) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:49) Sean Monahan: wrist, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:05) Denton Mateychuk: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:33) Denton Mateychuk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:54) Kent Johnson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:00) Ivan Provorov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:08) Darren Raddysh: slap, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:37) Boone Jenner: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:43) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:44) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:02) Victor Hedman: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:22) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:35) Mathieu Olivier: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:56) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:54) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:27) Conor Geekie: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:49) Victor Hedman: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:56) Victor Hedman: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:00) Denton Mateychuk: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:34) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:18) Yanni Gourde: tip-in, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:01) Dante Fabbro: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:42) Brandon Hagel: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 9:32) J.J. Moser: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:40) Charlie Coyle: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:08) Victor Hedman: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:54) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:03) Anthony Cirelli: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:07) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:38) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:11) Erik Cernak: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:15) Ivan Provorov: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:36) Denton Mateychuk: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:40) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:39) Zach Werenski: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:46) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:31) Victor Hedman: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:34) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:39) Brandon Hagel: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:45) Brandon Hagel: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 19:20) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:21) Jake Guentzel: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:23) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.39 (P3 19:23) Jake Guentzel: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:23) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:35) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:50) Kent Johnson: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 4:58) Ryan McDonagh: GOAL, wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:42) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:22) Damon Severson: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:59) Kirill Marchenko: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:15)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Anthony Cirelli 101 -1 40.23 0123:06
38 Brandon Hagel 000 -2 100.85 1123:06
59 Jake Guentzel 011 0 90.97 0020:46
21 Brayden Point 000 -2 10.18 0120:09
37 Yanni Gourde 000 +1 30.06 1017:37
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 +1 30.01 0114:39
29 Pontus Holmberg 011 +1 50.16 1113:49
93 Gage Goncalves 000 -3 10.00 0011:51
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 3007:14
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 00.00 1105:05
Defense
77 Victor Hedman 011 0 110.27 0324:23
90 J.J. Moser 000 0 10.01 1121:24
27 Ryan McDonagh 101 -2 40.06 1019:55
43 Darren Raddysh 000 0 30.07 2118:56
81 Erik Cernak 011 -2 20.01 0016:58
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 0 10.01 2214:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 31328 .903 2.91 -0.09

Columbus Blue Jackets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
23 Sean Monahan 000 +1 20.04 1019:17
3 Charlie Coyle 011 +1 30.08 1018:34
22 Boone Jenner 011 0 90.27 2118:27
4 Cole Sillinger 000 +1 50.25 0118:11
86 Kirill Marchenko 101 +1 70.47 1117:30
24 Mathieu Olivier 011 +1 20.21 2415:38
19 Adam Fantilli 011 0 50.31 3015:02
10 Dmitri Voronkov 011 +1 00.00 1014:43
91 Kent Johnson 101 0 40.32 0013:51
21 Isac Lundeström 000 0 00.00 1009:26
21 Zachary Aston-Reese 000 0 10.06 2108:22
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 0 10.14 1106:47
Defense
8 Zach Werenski 011 +2 40.11 0225:02
9 Ivan Provorov 000 +1 70.32 2224:48
5 Denton Mateychuk 000 +1 50.09 1321:22
78 Damon Severson 101 +1 40.18 1019:32
15 Dante Fabbro 000 0 10.01 1216:51
2 Jake Christiansen 000 -1 30.05 3010:28
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jet Greaves 24222 .917 3.02 +1.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.29 +0.70 +0.63 -0.05 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 20:46
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.98 +0.70 +0.10 +0.03 +0.08 +0.03 +0.05 — 13:49
77 Victor Hedman D +0.64 +0.55 +0.18 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 24:23
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.44 +0.75 +0.15 -0.47 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 23:06
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.14 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 17:37
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.04 +0.15 -0.01 +0.01 — 14:39
62 Jack Finley C +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.03 +0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 7:14
41 Mitchell Chaffee R +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:40
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:05
31 Jonas Johansson G -0.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.09 57:57
90 J.J. Moser D -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.36 +0.08 0.00 +0.03 — 21:24
81 Erik Cernak D -0.26 +0.55 +0.01 -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:58
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.30 +0.75 +0.04 -1.01 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 19:55
43 Darren Raddysh D -0.34 0.00 +0.04 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:56
78 Emil Lilleberg D -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:36
38 Brandon Hagel L -0.40 0.00 +0.55 -1.00 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 23:06
21 Brayden Point C -0.67 0.00 +0.12 -0.74 0.00 -0.07 +0.03 — 20:09
14 Conor Geekie C -0.78 0.00 +0.09 -0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 13:49
93 Gage Goncalves C -1.51 0.00 0.00 -1.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:51

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Mathieu Olivier R +1.79 +0.70 +0.14 +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 15:38
3 Charlie Coyle C +1.77 +0.55 +0.05 +1.18 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 18:34
38 Boone Jenner C +1.55 +0.70 +0.18 +0.80 -0.22 +0.05 +0.05 — 18:27
19 Adam Fantilli C +1.53 +0.55 +0.20 +0.87 0.00 -0.05 -0.04 — 15:02
86 Kirill Marchenko R +1.53 +0.75 +0.31 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:30
78 Damon Severson D +1.49 +0.75 +0.12 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:32
91 Kent Johnson C +1.42 +0.75 +0.20 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:51
8 Zach Werenski D +1.42 +0.55 +0.07 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 25:02
73 Jet Greaves G +1.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.02 59:53
4 Cole Sillinger C +1.02 0.00 +0.17 +0.94 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 18:11
9 Ivan Provorov D +1.02 0.00 +0.21 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:48
10 Dmitri Voronkov L +0.96 +0.70 0.00 +0.34 -0.08 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:43
5 Denton Mateychuk D +0.64 0.00 +0.06 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:22
15 Dante Fabbro D +0.57 0.00 +0.01 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:51
23 Sean Monahan C +0.49 0.00 +0.02 +0.42 0.00 +0.06 -0.02 — 19:17
2 Jake Christiansen D +0.05 0.00 +0.03 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:28
59 Egor Chinakhov R -0.23 0.00 +0.09 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 6:47
27 Zachary Aston-Reese C -0.48 0.00 +0.04 -0.55 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 8:22
21 Isac Lundeström C -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 9:26

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.