hockeystats.io

Anaheim DucksANA 3–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Anaheim DucksANA 012 3 40
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 121 4 33

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:10 TBL Jake Guentzel (3) Brandon Hagel (2), Anthony Cirelli (2) · wrist xG 0.44 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:42 ANA Jacob Trouba (2) Troy Terry (6), Mason McTavish (6) · slap xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
12:19 TBL Jake Guentzel (4) Brayden Point (5), Nikita Kucherov (4) · deflected xG 0.14 1–2 ▶
14:20 TBL Anthony Cirelli (4) Brandon Hagel (3), Victor Hedman (6) · backhand xG 0.08 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
7:11 ANA Ryan Poehling (1) Ross Johnston (3), Drew Helleson (2) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–3 ▶
8:10 ANA Troy Terry (3) Cutter Gauthier (2), Leo Carlsson (6) · wrist xG 0.22 3–3 ▶
16:45 TBL Anthony Cirelli (5)PP Nikita Kucherov (5), Victor Hedman (7) · wrist xG 0.12 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

ANA 18%Deserve to win82% TBL
ANATBL
2.70Expected goals5.09
3Goals (no shootout)4
2.00Expected goals, 5 on 53.22
64Shot attempts73
49Unblocked attempts55
40Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
6:20 ANA No shift No shift · Granlund, 35:34 on the bench
No shift after 16:15 of the 1st; 9 shifts (6:07) before that
3rd Period
4:00 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced ANA 1.37–0.33
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:00 of the 2nd to 4:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

ANA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:25) Jake Guentzel: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 1:25) Leo Carlsson: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:50) Troy Terry: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:05) Mason McTavish: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:41) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:05) Ryan Poehling: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 6:48) Curtis Douglas: wrist, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:20) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.33 (P1 7:30) Jackson LaCombe: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:55) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:07) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:37) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:07) Jackson LaCombe: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:26) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:33) Troy Terry: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:48) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:04) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:34) Mikael Granlund: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:55) Victor Hedman: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:31) Victor Hedman: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:42) Victor Hedman: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:50) Mason McTavish: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 13:26) Nikita Nesterenko: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:16) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:48) Ryan Poehling: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:22) Troy Terry: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:43) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:03) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:29) J.J. Moser: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:45) Gage Goncalves: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:20) Dominic James: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:21) Brayden Point: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:10) Brandon Hagel: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:48) Jacob Trouba: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:32) Olen Zellweger: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:35) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:56) Dominic James: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:31) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:56) Drew Helleson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:00) Emil Lilleberg: backhand, 174 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:08) Jackson LaCombe: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:32) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:43) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:27) Dominic James: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:56) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:08) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:16) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:19) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:43) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:52) Anthony Cirelli: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:07) Victor Hedman: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:12) Anthony Cirelli: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:18) Brandon Hagel: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 14:19) Mason McTavish: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:59) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:40) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:53) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:01) Victor Hedman: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:34) Brayden Point: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:08) Troy Terry: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:50) Mason McTavish: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 19:28) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:27) Brayden Point: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 1:42) Emil Lilleberg: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:45) Frank Vatrano: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:40) Pontus Holmberg: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:02) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:29) Brayden Point: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 3:31) Victor Hedman: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:34) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:01) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:15) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:51) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:58) Anthony Cirelli: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:03) Jake Guentzel: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 5:13) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:16) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:43) Alex Killorn: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:11) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:53) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:33) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:06) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:07) Ross Johnston: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:28) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:50) Brayden Point: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:00) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:18) Zemgus Girgensons: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:53) Zemgus Girgensons: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:34) Jacob Trouba: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:07) Jackson LaCombe: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:13) Drew Helleson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:17) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:23) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:33) Victor Hedman: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:05) Jacob Trouba: slap, 165 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:05) Brandon Hagel: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:03) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.44 (P1 9:10) Jacob Trouba: GOAL, slap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:42) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:19) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:20) Ryan Poehling: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:11) Troy Terry: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 8:10) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:45)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Leo Carlsson 011 +1 60.13 0022:20
19 Troy Terry 112 +2 60.51 0018:49
17 Alex Killorn 000 0 10.01 0018:15
61 Cutter Gauthier 011 +2 120.36 1118:01
83 Mason McTavish 011 -1 40.46 1217:19
13 Nikita Nesterenko 000 +1 10.04 3115:27
45 Beckett Sennecke 000 -2 10.09 0015:16
25 Ryan Poehling 101 0 40.27 1013:25
77 Frank Vatrano 000 0 40.08 2111:26
12 Sam Colangelo 000 -3 00.00 2008:11
49 Ross Johnston 011 0 10.04 2006:30
64 Mikael Granlund 000 0 30.26 0006:07
Defense
65 Jacob Trouba 101 +1 60.17 2227:31
2 Jackson LaCombe 000 0 40.06 0427:26
14 Drew Helleson 011 0 40.02 0119:29
98 Pavel Mintyukov 000 0 20.00 0317:57
8 Olen Zellweger 000 0 50.20 0215:07
3 Ian Moore 000 -1 00.00 0010:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Lukas Dostal 33429 .879 5.09 +1.09

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 202 +1 91.33 0022:28
71 Anthony Cirelli 213 +1 70.59 0220:56
86 Nikita Kucherov 022 0 160.88 1020:54
38 Brandon Hagel 022 +1 30.37 2019:58
21 Brayden Point 011 0 60.90 0019:48
17 Dominic James 000 0 40.17 2015:35
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 00.00 0114:34
37 Yanni Gourde 000 -1 00.00 2113:14
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 -1 40.26 3012:18
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 40.12 2012:10
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 -1 10.04 4010:31
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 10.00 0002:46
Defense
77 Victor Hedman 022 +3 90.36 0124:20
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 -2 20.01 2320:43
90 J.J. Moser 000 +3 40.00 1019:49
81 Erik Cernak 000 -2 00.00 0418:45
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 -1 10.05 1114:57
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 -1 20.01 1212:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 40337 .925 2.70 -0.30

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Troy Terry R +2.68 +1.45 +0.33 +0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:49
61 Cutter Gauthier L +1.35 +0.70 +0.23 +0.38 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 18:01
91 Leo Carlsson C +1.33 +0.55 +0.09 +0.74 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 22:20
1 Lukas Dostal G +1.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.09 60:00
65 Jacob Trouba D +1.05 +0.75 +0.11 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 27:31
25 Ryan Poehling C +0.39 +0.75 +0.18 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:25
14 Drew Helleson D +0.34 +0.55 +0.01 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:29
64 Mikael Granlund C +0.21 0.00 +0.17 +0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 6:07
44 Ross Johnston L +0.15 +0.70 +0.02 -0.42 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 6:30
2 Jackson LaCombe D +0.12 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 27:26
13 Nikita Nesterenko C -0.03 0.00 +0.03 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:27
51 Olen Zellweger D -0.27 0.00 +0.13 -0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.14 — 15:07
77 Frank Vatrano R -0.31 0.00 +0.05 -0.43 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 11:26
17 Alex Killorn L -0.45 0.00 +0.01 -0.42 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 18:15
98 Pavel Mintyukov D -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 17:57
23 Mason McTavish C -0.62 +0.55 +0.30 -1.40 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 17:19
74 Ian Moore D -1.24 0.00 0.00 -1.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:22
45 Beckett Sennecke R -1.29 0.00 +0.06 -1.36 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:16
12 Sam Colangelo R -1.59 0.00 0.00 -1.44 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:11

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Anthony Cirelli C +3.65 +2.05 +0.38 +0.97 0.00 +0.11 +0.14 — 20:56
59 Jake Guentzel C +3.53 +1.50 +0.86 +1.17 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 22:28
77 Victor Hedman D +3.52 +1.10 +0.24 +2.00 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 24:20
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.12 +1.40 +0.24 +1.36 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 19:58
86 Nikita Kucherov R +3.00 +1.25 +0.57 +1.05 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:54
90 J.J. Moser D +1.78 0.00 0.00 +1.83 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 19:49
21 Brayden Point C +1.65 +0.70 +0.58 +0.42 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 19:48
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.35 0.00 +0.08 +0.12 +0.15 -0.02 +0.02 — 12:10
17 Dominic James C +0.19 0.00 +0.11 +0.12 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 15:35
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:34
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 2:46
81 Erik Cernak D -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.14 — 18:45
78 Emil Lilleberg D -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.37 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 12:14
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 20:43
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.23 0.00 +0.03 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:57
31 Jonas Johansson G -0.30 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.30 60:00
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:14
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.43 0.00 +0.17 -0.56 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 12:18
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.56 0.00 +0.03 -0.57 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 10:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.