hockeystats.io

Tampa Bay LightningTBL 5–2 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 113 5 32
Nashville PredatorsNSH 002 2 20

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:31 TBL Zemgus Girgensons (1) Pontus Holmberg (3), Yanni Gourde (1) · snap xG 0.20 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
15:37 TBL Brandon Hagel (2) Anthony Cirelli (3) · wrist xG 0.44 2–0 ▶
3rd Period
5:05 NSH Luke Evangelista (1)PP Erik Haula (3), Brady Skjei (3) · wrist xG 0.24 2–1 ▶
7:58 TBL Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1) Brayden Point (6), Nikita Kucherov (6) · wrist xG 0.09 3–1 ▶
17:54 NSH Filip Forsberg (4) Luke Evangelista (5), Erik Haula (4) · wrist xG 0.06 3–2 ▶
19:07 TBL Nikita Kucherov (4)EN Brandon Hagel (5), Anthony Cirelli (4) · wrist xG 0.93 4–2 ▶
19:33 TBL Zemgus Girgensons (2) Pontus Holmberg (4), Erik Cernak (2) · wrist xG 0.23 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 80%Deserve to win20% NSH
TBLNSH
5.70Expected goals1.90
5Goals (no shootout)2
2.65Expected goals, 5 on 50.36
50Shot attempts43
45Unblocked attempts26
32Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:44 TBL Deserve to win Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39%
NSH had led since 2:08 of the 1st, by as much as 80%
3:20 TBL No shift No shift · Douglas, 10:23 on the bench
No shift from 11:10 of the 1st to 3:40 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (1:31) before that
12:50 NSH No shift No shift · Wilsby, 25:08 on the bench
No shift after 2:47 of the 2nd; 8 shifts (5:36) before that
15:40 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.73–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:40 to 19:40 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
18:00 TBL No shift No shift · Douglas, 11:28 on the bench
No shift from 5:48 of the 2nd to 2:02 of the 3rd; 5 shifts (2:44) before that
3rd Period
16:02 NSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Saros, down 3–1
With 3:58 left; NSH scored at 17:54 of the 3rd (3–2)
18:37 NSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Saros, down 3–2
With 1:23 left; TBL scored at 19:07 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Brady Skjei: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:10) Nick Perbix: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:30) Justin Barron: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:06) Matthew Wood: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 2:08) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:38) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:39) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 2:43) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:56) Brayden Point: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:47) Brayden Point: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:48) Brandon Hagel: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:35) Dominic James: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:50) Victor Hedman: wrist, 118 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:52) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:38) Emil Lilleberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:10) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:21) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:56) Brayden Point: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:25) Brady Skjei: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:42) Ozzy Wiesblatt: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:54) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:24) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 15:26) Jake Guentzel: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:29) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:38) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:27) Erik Cernak: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:34) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:35) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:44) Erik Cernak: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:18) Erik Haula: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:19) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:28) Curtis Douglas: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:58) Yanni Gourde: deflected, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:20) Erik Haula: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:47) Spencer Stastney: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:52) Victor Hedman: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:00) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:34) Dominic James: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:32) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:14) Erik Haula: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:20) Dominic James: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:09) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 15:11) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:14) Dominic James: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:33) Anthony Cirelli: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 15:35) Brayden Point: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:16) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:37) Cole Smith: wrist, 140 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:54) J.J. Moser: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 3:16) Victor Hedman: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:28) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:15) Erik Haula: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:03) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:14) Brady Skjei: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:35) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:45) Matthew Wood: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:34) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:19) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:26) Brady Skjei: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:18) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.56 (P3 16:59) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:21) Luke Evangelista: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:51) Brandon Hagel: slap, 116 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 18:40) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:49) Zemgus Girgensons: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 10:31) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.44 (P2 15:37) Luke Evangelista: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 5:05) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:58) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:54) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 19:07) Zemgus Girgensons: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 19:33)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 112 +2 51.42 0123:55
71 Anthony Cirelli 022 +2 30.77 0121:30
86 Nikita Kucherov 112 +2 51.01 0119:57
21 Brayden Point 011 +1 40.32 0017:30
59 Jake Guentzel 000 0 10.06 0017:13
37 Yanni Gourde 011 +2 10.00 0214:32
28 Zemgus Girgensons 202 +1 50.48 1113:14
17 Dominic James 000 +1 50.29 1012:32
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 20.09 1011:48
29 Pontus Holmberg 022 +2 30.41 1211:38
93 Gage Goncalves 000 +1 20.21 1109:22
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 10.07 1004:37
Defense
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 +1 20.07 1221:51
77 Victor Hedman 000 0 30.09 1121:14
81 Erik Cernak 011 +1 20.02 6018:26
90 J.J. Moser 000 0 10.13 1218:15
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 101 +3 30.24 0117:11
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 +1 20.03 1016:06
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 20218 .900 1.90 -0.10

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -1 00.00 2021:19
9 Filip Forsberg 101 0 30.06 3017:08
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -1 50.19 1016:23
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 -2 60.41 1016:22
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 00.00 2015:30
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 00.00 0014:17
56 Erik Haula 022 -2 40.24 2114:04
22 Cole Smith 000 -2 20.00 3014:03
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 20.27 1013:53
77 Luke Evangelista 112 0 30.33 0013:27
17 Tyson Jost 000 -2 00.00 2112:13
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt 000 -1 10.04 0009:28
Defense
76 Brady Skjei 011 -2 70.18 2126:55
48 Nick Perbix 000 -2 30.11 0024:57
41 Nicolas Hague 000 -1 20.00 3020:12
72 Justin Barron 000 -1 30.03 2218:14
24 Spencer Stastney 000 -3 20.02 0016:29
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 00.00 0005:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 31427 .871 3.76 -0.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.95 +1.45 +0.93 +1.40 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 23:55
71 Anthony Cirelli C +3.14 +1.25 +0.50 +1.40 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 21:30
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +3.08 +1.50 +0.31 +1.24 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:14
29 Pontus Holmberg R +3.03 +1.40 +0.27 +1.15 +0.15 -0.05 +0.12 — 11:38
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +2.95 +0.75 +0.16 +1.97 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:11
86 Nikita Kucherov R +2.51 +1.30 +0.66 +0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 19:57
37 Yanni Gourde C +1.78 +0.55 0.00 +1.15 0.00 -0.02 +0.10 — 14:32
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.34 0.00 +0.13 +1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:22
21 Brayden Point C +1.24 +0.70 +0.21 +0.56 -0.15 0.00 -0.08 — 17:30
81 Erik Cernak D +1.15 +0.55 +0.01 +0.76 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:26
78 Emil Lilleberg D +1.12 0.00 +0.02 +1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:06
17 Dominic James C +1.09 0.00 +0.19 +1.09 -0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 12:32
77 Victor Hedman D +0.86 0.00 +0.06 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:14
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.59 0.00 +0.04 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:51
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.44 0.00 +0.04 +0.41 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:13
90 J.J. Moser D +0.43 0.00 +0.08 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:15
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.27 0.00 +0.04 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 4:37
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.26 0.00 +0.06 +0.21 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:48
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.10 59:49

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Luke Evangelista R +1.67 +1.45 +0.22 -0.13 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:27
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.79 +0.75 +0.04 -0.32 +0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 17:08
56 Erik Haula L +0.44 +1.25 +0.16 -0.94 -0.15 +0.07 +0.05 — 14:04
47 Michael McCarron C -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.20 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 15:30
74 Juuse Saros G -0.24 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.24 57:30
58 Michael Bunting L -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:17
76 Brady Skjei D -0.25 +0.55 +0.12 -0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 26:55
71 Matthew Wood R -0.47 0.00 +0.18 -0.66 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:53
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C -0.47 0.00 +0.03 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:28
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.34 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 5:36
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.66 0.00 +0.13 -0.78 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 16:23
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:12
36 Cole Smith R -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:03
17 Tyson Jost C -1.00 0.00 0.00 -1.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:13
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -1.05 0.00 +0.26 -1.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:22
20 Justin Barron D -1.34 0.00 +0.02 -1.44 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:14
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -1.40 0.00 0.00 -1.44 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 21:19
48 Nick Perbix D -1.54 0.00 +0.07 -1.59 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:57
24 Spencer Stastney D -2.28 0.00 +0.01 -2.12 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:29

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.