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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 4–2 Final Utah MammothUTA

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 112 4 26
Utah MammothUTA 101 2 27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:55 UTA Lawson Crouse (2) Ian Cole (4) · snap xG 0.21 0–1 ▶
15:17 TBL Yanni Gourde (3) Emil Lilleberg (1), Zemgus Girgensons (1) · snap xG 0.16 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:47 TBL Anthony Cirelli (7) Jake Guentzel (7), Victor Hedman (9) · slap xG 0.04 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:21 UTA Kailer Yamamoto (1) Ian Cole (5) · snap xG 0.22 2–2 ▶
12:06 TBL Jake Guentzel (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
19:44 TBL Brandon Hagel (4)EN Ryan McDonagh (3) · wrist xG 0.93 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 35%Deserve to win65% UTA
TBLUTA
3.43Expected goals2.69
4Goals (no shootout)2
1.41Expected goals, 5 on 51.86
52Shot attempts53
38Unblocked attempts38
26Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:33 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vejmelka, down 3–2
With 1:27 left; TBL scored at 19:44 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:13) Dylan Guenther: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:20) Dominic James: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:32) Clayton Keller: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:07) Yanni Gourde: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:19) J.J. Moser: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:51) Gage Goncalves: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:49) Olli Maatta: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:54) J.J. Moser: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:13) Brayden Point: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:29) Brayden Point: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:29) Brayden Point: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:30) Brandon Hagel: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:31) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:42) JJ Peterka: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 14:37) Kailer Yamamoto: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:38) Erik Cernak: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:52) Victor Hedman: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:35) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:19) J.J. Moser: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:28) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:37) Victor Hedman: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:44) Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 3:34) Zemgus Girgensons: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:05) John Marino: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:56) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:37) Dmitri Simashev: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:54) Yanni Gourde: snap, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:20) Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:27) Clayton Keller: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:01) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 157 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:03) Olli Maatta: snap, 165 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:16) Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:43) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:04) Dylan Guenther: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:55) Dylan Guenther: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:00) Nate Schmidt: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:34) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:30) Dominic James: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:23) J.J. Moser: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:02) Brandon Hagel: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:30) Brayden Point: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:59) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:09) Erik Cernak: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:18) Lawson Crouse: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:45) Nate Schmidt: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:52) Michael Carcone: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:56) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 0:31) Nate Schmidt: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:52) Brayden Point: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:39) JJ Peterka: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:24) Logan Cooley: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:55) John Marino: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:28) Yanni Gourde: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:40) Brandon Tanev: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:12) Dominic James: tip-in, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:37) Michael Carcone: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:39) Brandon Hagel: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:37) Nate Schmidt: backhand, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:57) Ryan McDonagh: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:58) Olli Maatta: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:42) Logan Cooley: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:41) JJ Peterka: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:58) Clayton Keller: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 14:03) Erik Cernak: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:34) Lawson Crouse: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:51) Jack McBain: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 16:57) Clayton Keller: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:39) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 132 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:59) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 124 ft, xG 0.48 (P3 19:17) Lawson Crouse: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 5:55) Yanni Gourde: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 15:17) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:47) Kailer Yamamoto: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 2:21) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:06) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 19:44)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 101 +1 61.66 1023:08
86 Nikita Kucherov 000 +1 40.16 0020:19
37 Yanni Gourde 101 +1 50.31 1017:33
21 Brayden Point 000 0 50.48 0116:52
28 Zemgus Girgensons 011 +1 10.04 3116:21
71 Anthony Cirelli 101 +2 30.04 0116:19
59 Jake Guentzel 112 +1 10.15 0014:56
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 10.00 1014:08
17 Dominic James 000 -1 60.11 4011:28
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -1 20.01 1010:36
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 30.12 1009:54
42 Curtis Douglas 000 +1 00.00 1003:01
Defense
27 Ryan McDonagh 011 +1 40.13 1121:55
90 J.J. Moser 000 +1 60.08 1121:02
81 Erik Cernak 000 +1 30.06 0420:27
77 Victor Hedman 011 0 20.09 0220:08
78 Emil Lilleberg 011 +1 00.00 1319:23
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 0 00.00 0014:30
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 27225 .926 2.69 +0.69

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 -3 20.01 0120:22
9 Clayton Keller 000 -3 50.43 0020:01
92 Logan Cooley 000 -1 30.06 1118:30
11 Dylan Guenther 000 -1 40.20 1118:11
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -2 10.00 0116:58
10 JJ Peterka 000 -2 30.29 0016:43
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 +1 20.05 0013:49
67 Lawson Crouse 101 +1 30.24 3212:41
22 Jack McBain 000 +1 20.16 6012:21
56 Kailer Yamamoto 101 +1 50.69 1012:10
53 Michael Carcone 000 +1 30.05 2110:26
13 Brandon Tanev 000 -1 10.11 3010:22
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 -2 40.15 0124:49
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 40.09 1021:55
6 John Marino 000 -2 30.07 0218:43
28 Ian Cole 022 +1 20.00 1016:32
3 Olli Maatta 000 +1 40.08 0113:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 25322 .880 1.88 -1.12

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.84 +0.75 +1.08 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:08
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.78 +1.45 +0.10 +0.06 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 14:56
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.92 +0.70 +0.08 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:55
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.79 +0.75 +0.20 -0.12 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 17:33
71 Anthony Cirelli C +0.69 +0.75 +0.03 -0.07 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 16:19
31 Jonas Johansson G +0.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.69 60:00
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.56 +0.70 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:23
77 Victor Hedman D +0.48 +0.55 +0.06 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:08
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.47 +0.55 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:21
21 Brayden Point C +0.41 0.00 +0.31 +0.03 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 16:52
90 J.J. Moser D +0.32 0.00 +0.05 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:02
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:01
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.17 0.00 +0.08 +0.10 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:54
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.14 0.00 +0.11 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:19
81 Erik Cernak D -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.10 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 20:27
17 Dominic James C -0.21 0.00 +0.07 -0.29 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:28
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.30 0.00 +0.01 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:36
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.55 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 14:08
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.50 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:30

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
28 Ian Cole D +2.25 +1.40 0.00 +0.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:32
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +2.06 +0.75 +0.45 +0.73 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 12:10
67 Lawson Crouse L +1.49 +0.75 +0.15 +0.46 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 — 12:41
2 Olli Maatta D +1.01 0.00 +0.05 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:14
22 Jack McBain C +0.74 0.00 +0.11 +0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 12:21
53 Michael Carcone L +0.70 0.00 +0.04 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:26
82 Kevin Stenlund C +0.70 0.00 +0.03 +0.60 0.00 +0.06 0.00 — 13:49
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.02 0.00 +0.06 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 21:55
11 Dylan Guenther R -0.10 0.00 +0.13 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:11
26 Dmitri Simashev D -0.13 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:26
98 Mikhail Sergachev D -0.13 0.00 +0.10 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 24:49
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.14 0.00 +0.07 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:22
9 Clayton Keller R -0.20 0.00 +0.28 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 20:01
77 JJ Peterka R -0.20 0.00 +0.19 -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:43
8 Nick Schmaltz C -0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:22
92 Logan Cooley C -0.23 0.00 +0.04 -0.12 -0.15 -0.03 +0.03 — 18:30
27 Barrett Hayton C -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 16:58
6 John Marino D -0.41 0.00 +0.05 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:43
70 Karel Vejmelka G -1.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.12 58:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.