| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
 |
0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:19 | |
Emil Lilleberg (2) Nikita Kucherov (8) · snap xG 0.07 | 1–0 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 11:31 | |
Brad Marchand (12)PP Sam Reinhart (3), Anton Lundell (11) · backhand xG 0.09 | 1–1 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:09 | |
Jack Finley (1) Curtis Douglas (2), Scott Sabourin (1) · backhand xG 0.15 | 2–1 ▶ |
| 19:09 | |
Zemgus Girgensons (4)EN Yanni Gourde (3) · snap xG 0.94 | 3–1 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| TBL | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.43 | Expected goals | 1.94 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 1 |
| 1.87 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.08 |
| 41 | Shot attempts | 62 |
| 34 | Unblocked attempts | 47 |
| 20 | Shots on goal | 23 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:50 | TBL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.23–0.05
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:20 to 17:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 16:54 | FLA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 2–1
With 3:06 left; TBL scored at 19:09 of the 3rd (3–1) |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 59 | Jake Guentzel | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 2 | 25:05 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 0.35 | 3 | 1 | 22:31 |
| 37 | Yanni Gourde | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.09 | 3 | 3 | 20:21 |
| 21 | Brayden Point | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.94 | 4 | 0 | 19:36 |
| 28 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 |
| 93 | Gage Goncalves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:56 |
| 49 | Scott Sabourin | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.33 | 2 | 0 | 09:06 |
| 37 | Jack Finley | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.47 | 3 | 0 | 08:25 |
| 42 | Curtis Douglas | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.07 | 3 | 0 | 07:07 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 90 | J.J. Moser | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.13 | 2 | 3 | 22:24 |
| 43 | Darren Raddysh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 20:20 |
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 18:13 |
| 81 | Erik Cernak | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 3 | 1 | 18:05 |
| 24 | Max Crozier | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 17:50 |
| 78 | Emil Lilleberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 16:02 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 23 | 1 | 22 | .957 | 1.94 | +0.94 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 0.38 | 1 | 1 | 23:28 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 1 | 23:05 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 0.11 | 4 | 0 | 18:46 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 16:11 |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 1 | 15:26 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 4 | 0 | 10:36 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 0 | 08:04 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 07:33 |
| 79 | Cole Schwindt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 07:26 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 3 | Seth Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.19 | 1 | 1 | 25:30 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 |
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 5 | 1 | 20:46 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 18:50 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
| 73 | Donovan Sebrango | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 10:37 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 19 | 2 | 17 | .895 | 2.49 | +0.49 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 Emil Lilleberg D | +2.03 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +1.37 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 16:02 |
| 62 Jack Finley C | +1.92 | +0.75 | +0.31 | +0.87 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 8:25 |
| 46 Scott Sabourin R | +1.88 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +0.98 | +0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 9:06 |
| 42 Curtis Douglas C | +1.72 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:07 |
| 86 Nikita Kucherov R | +1.40 | +0.70 | +0.23 | +0.31 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 22:31 |
| 24 Max Crozier D | +1.18 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:50 |
| 88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G | +0.94 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.94 | 60:00 |
| 28 Zemgus Girgensons C | +0.92 | +0.75 | +0.61 | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:36 |
| 37 Yanni Gourde C | +0.91 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.08 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.09 | — | 20:21 |
| 59 Jake Guentzel C | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:05 |
| 90 J.J. Moser D | +0.57 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.30 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 22:24 |
| 21 Brayden Point C | +0.49 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:49 |
| 43 Darren Raddysh D | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:20 |
| 11 Jakob Pelletier L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 6:12 |
| 22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:18 |
| 61 Boris Katchouk L | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | 10:35 |
| 93 Gage Goncalves C | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 12:56 |
| 51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | -0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.22 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:13 |
| 81 Erik Cernak D | -0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.33 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 18:05 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63 Brad Marchand L | +0.66 | +0.75 | +0.22 | -0.48 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 17:52 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | +0.49 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.49 | 57:45 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.27 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:11 |
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | +0.42 | +0.70 | +0.25 | -0.51 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | — | 23:28 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +0.27 | +0.55 | +0.09 | -0.47 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | — | 23:05 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.14 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 10:36 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | -0.01 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.28 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 18:46 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 25:30 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.43 | +0.30 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 14:14 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | -0.28 | 0.00 | +0.14 | -0.41 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:35 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.44 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 8:04 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | -0.32 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 18:50 |
| 27 Eetu Luostarinen C | -0.32 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.47 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.07 | — | 15:26 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:30 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 7:33 |
| 79 Cole Schwindt R | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 7:26 |
| 6 Donovan Sebrango D | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:37 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:46 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.50 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:46 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.