New Jersey DevilsNJD 1–5 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
New Jersey DevilsNJD	0	1	0	1	32
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	2	1	2	5	29

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:40	TBL	Jake Guentzel (9) Unassisted · slap xG 0.10	0–1 ▶
19:38	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (9) Anthony Cirelli (5) · wrist xG 0.13	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
10:38	TBL	Jake Guentzel (10)PP Darren Raddysh (4), Oliver Bjorkstrand (6) · tip-in xG 0.11	0–3 ▶
17:47	NJD	Nico Hischier (4) Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jesper Bratt (13) · deflected xG 0.77	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:49	TBL	Darren Raddysh (2) Brayden Point (8), J.J. Moser (4) · slap xG 0.06	1–4 ▶
7:48	TBL	Jake Guentzel (11)PP Nikita Kucherov (9), Darren Raddysh (5) · tip-in xG 0.11	1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NJD 53%Deserve to win47% TBL

NJD		TBL
3.49	Expected goals	3.34
1	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.67	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.14
54	Shot attempts	55
47	Unblocked attempts	43
32	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:21	NJD	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NJD takes the lead, 61–39% TBL had led since 7:58 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
2nd Period
6:44	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% NJD had led since 15:21 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
7:30	TBL	No shift	No shift · Girgensons, 10:34 on the bench No shift from 14:52 of the 1st to 7:55 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (3:57) before that
3rd Period
4:20	NJD	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.52–0.37 In xG over 10 minutes, 14:20 of the 2nd to 4:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
7:48	NJD	Goalie	Goalie · Markstrom −2.0 goals saved 5 goals on 2.98 xG, 25 shots on goal
12:35	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.04 xG, 28 shots on goal

Shot map

NJD shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New Jersey Devils

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Nico Hischier	1	0	1	0	6	1.36	4	1	18:06
91	Dawson Mercer	0	0	0	-2	2	0.15	0	2	18:06
81	Arseny Gritsyuk	0	1	1	0	5	0.17	3	0	16:30
63	Jesper Bratt	0	1	1	0	5	0.31	2	0	15:58
28	Timo Meier	0	0	0	-2	2	0.05	0	0	15:28
16	Connor Brown	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	1	0	15:21
11	Stefan Noesen	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	2	0	15:21
47	Paul Cotter	0	0	0	0	5	0.53	0	0	14:20
81	Ondrej Palat	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	13:20
33	Evgenii Dadonov	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	1	1	12:51
41	Luke Glendening	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	12:04
83	Juho Lammikko	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	11:49
Defense
43	Luke Hughes	0	0	0	0	6	0.15	0	1	23:56
71	Simon Nemec	0	0	0	0	5	0.16	0	2	21:11
7	Dougie Hamilton	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	0	1	19:53
5	Brenden Dillon	0	0	0	-2	5	0.03	1	2	19:21
71	Jonas Siegenthaler	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	18:03
44	Dennis Cholowski	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	13:18

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jacob Markstrom	29	5	24	.828	3.34	-1.66

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	1	2	0	6	0.27	1	0	22:07
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	1	1	21:14
21	Brayden Point	0	1	1	+2	3	0.26	0	0	18:54
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	0	2	0.15	0	0	18:31
59	Jake Guentzel	3	0	3	+2	9	1.25	0	0	18:09
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	0	7	0.49	1	0	14:25
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	1	0	14:00
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	+2	1	0.10	0	0	11:51
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	10:37
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	10:31
37	Jack Finley	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	08:14
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	0	4	0.14	0	0	06:14
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	1	2	3	0	5	0.22	0	1	24:13
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	+2	3	0.01	2	0	23:28
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	0	2	22:21
90	J.J. Moser	0	1	1	+1	2	0.14	3	2	22:08
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	11:42

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	1	31	.969	3.49	+2.49

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New Jersey Devils

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
13 Nico Hischier C	+3.42	+0.75	+0.88	+1.71	0.00	+0.05	+0.03	—	18:06
63 Jesper Bratt L	+2.78	+0.55	+0.20	+1.87	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:58
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R	+2.26	+0.70	+0.11	+1.62	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	16:30
43 Luke Hughes D	+1.22	0.00	+0.10	+1.24	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	23:56
47 Paul Cotter L	+0.64	0.00	+0.34	+0.16	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	14:20
44 Dennis Cholowski D	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:18
17 Simon Nemec D	+0.26	0.00	+0.11	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	21:11
33 Evgenii Dadonov L	+0.09	0.00	+0.03	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:51
14 Luke Glendening C	+0.04	0.00	+0.08	-0.09	0.00	+0.06	0.00	—	12:04
5 Brenden Dillon D	+0.03	0.00	+0.02	-0.24	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	19:21
7 Dougie Hamilton D	-0.01	0.00	+0.12	-0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:53
18 Ondrej Palat L	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:20
83 Juho Lammikko C	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	11:49
11 Stefan Noesen R	-0.41	0.00	+0.10	-0.31	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	—	15:21
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:03
91 Dawson Mercer C	-0.96	0.00	+0.10	-1.12	0.00	-0.02	+0.08	—	18:06
16 Connor Brown R	-1.13	0.00	+0.05	-1.16	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:21
28 Timo Meier R	-1.29	0.00	+0.03	-1.31	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:28
25 Jacob Markstrom G	-1.66	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.66	60:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C	+4.43	+2.25	+0.81	+1.21	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	18:09
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+2.49	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.49	60:00
21 Brayden Point C	+1.71	+0.70	+0.17	+0.97	-0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	18:54
43 Darren Raddysh D	+1.12	+2.00	+0.14	-0.92	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	24:13
93 Gage Goncalves C	+1.04	0.00	+0.07	+1.01	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	11:51
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+0.75	+1.45	+0.17	-0.73	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	22:07
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.48	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	23:28
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.60	+0.55	+0.32	-0.23	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	14:25
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.53	0.00	+0.02	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:21
42 Curtis Douglas C	+0.24	0.00	+0.09	+0.16	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	6:14
67 Declan Carlile D	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:42
16 Steven Santini D	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:37
17 Dominic James C	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	10:31
62 Jack Finley C	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:14
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.11	+0.55	+0.09	-0.83	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:08
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:37
71 Anthony Cirelli C	-0.20	+0.70	+0.10	-0.97	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	18:31
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.59	0.00	+0.04	-0.62	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	14:00
38 Brandon Hagel L	-1.00	0.00	+0.13	-1.29	+0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	21:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.