Calgary FlamesCGY 1–5 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY	0	0	1	1	32
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	4	0	1	5	23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:39	TBL	Brandon Hagel (12) Anthony Cirelli (8), Nikita Kucherov (16) · wrist xG 0.15	0–1 ▶
1:26	TBL	Charle-Edouard D'Astous (2) Nick Paul (1), Jake Guentzel (11) · slap xG 0.05	0–2 ▶
5:52	TBL	Zemgus Girgensons (5) Yanni Gourde (4), Pontus Holmberg (5) · wrist xG 0.02	0–3 ▶
10:01	TBL	Declan Carlile (1) Steven Santini (1), Jake Guentzel (12) · snap xG 0.07	0–4 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
1:04	CGY	Joel Farabee (6)SH John Beecher (1), Yan Kuznetsov (2) · wrist xG 0.03	1–4 ▶
14:23	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (11) Brandon Hagel (12), Darren Raddysh (8) · snap xG 0.17	1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 65%Deserve to win35% TBL

CGY		TBL
3.74	Expected goals	2.81
1	Goals (no shootout)	5
2.86	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.79
63	Shot attempts	60
46	Unblocked attempts	41
32	Shots on goal	23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
5:52	CGY	Goalie	Goalie · Wolf −2.8 goals saved 3 goals on 0.22 xG, 4 shots on goal
5:52	CGY	Goalie change	Goalie change · Cooley in for Wolf 5:52 of the 1st; Wolf had allowed 3 goals on 4 shots (0.22 xG)
2nd Period
19:07	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.02 xG, 14 shots on goal
3rd Period
3:12	CGY	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 60–40% TBL had led since 5:52 of the 1st, by as much as 70%
6:30	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.28–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:00 of the 2nd to 7:00 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
7:50	TBL	No shift	No shift · Douglas, 14:40 on the bench No shift from 13:10 of the 2nd to 12:29 of the 3rd; 5 shifts (4:43) before that

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
91	Nazem Kadri	0	0	0	-1	8	0.72	3	0	19:51
10	Jonathan Huberdeau	0	0	0	-2	2	0.17	0	0	19:15
11	Mikael Backlund	0	0	0	-2	3	0.07	0	0	18:19
27	Matt Coronato	0	0	0	-2	8	0.85	1	0	17:37
16	Morgan Frost	0	0	0	-2	6	0.43	2	0	16:42
20	Blake Coleman	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	3	1	14:39
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	-2	3	0.23	0	0	14:37
17	Yegor Sharangovich	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	1	14:31
86	Joel Farabee	1	0	1	0	6	0.38	0	2	13:21
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	2	0	11:43
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	3	0	10:12
17	John Beecher	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	09:13
Defense
52	MacKenzie Weegar	0	0	0	-1	7	0.05	3	3	23:39
4	Rasmus Andersson	0	0	0	-4	3	0.08	1	5	21:37
37	Yan Kuznetsov	0	1	1	-1	2	0.10	2	2	20:54
7	Kevin Bahl	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	0	18:17
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	0	5	0.26	2	1	13:52
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	1	13:41

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dustin Wolf	4	3	1	.250	0.22	-2.78
Devin Cooley	19	2	17	.895	2.59	+0.59

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
59	Jake Guentzel	0	2	2	+1	3	0.01	0	2	21:21
38	Brandon Hagel	1	1	2	+2	7	0.24	0	1	20:11
20	Nick Paul	0	1	1	+1	5	0.37	2	1	19:46
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	1	2	+1	6	0.46	0	1	17:28
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	+2	3	0.21	0	0	17:27
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	0	0	15:03
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	0	13:37
28	Zemgus Girgensons	1	0	1	+1	3	0.06	4	0	12:59
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	-1	4	0.49	0	0	12:53
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	1	1	+1	3	0.13	1	1	09:35
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	1	0	09:14
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	06:31
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	1	1	+1	5	0.24	1	3	22:18
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	1	0	1	+1	5	0.08	1	1	21:58
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	0	1	20:44
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	+2	2	0.02	1	1	18:27
72	Declan Carlile	1	0	1	+2	5	0.13	0	2	15:10

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	1	31	.969	3.74	+2.74

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	+1.69	+0.55	+0.06	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:54
86 Joel Farabee L	+1.67	+0.75	+0.25	+0.12	+0.45	0.00	+0.10	—	13:21
52 MacKenzie Weegar D	+1.10	0.00	+0.03	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	23:39
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	+1.01	0.00	+0.01	+0.96	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	14:31
18 John Beecher C	+0.83	+0.70	0.00	+0.09	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	9:13
27 Matt Coronato R	+0.67	0.00	+0.55	+0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:37
1 Devin Cooley G	+0.59	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.59	54:08
10 Jonathan Huberdeau L	+0.52	0.00	+0.11	+0.58	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	19:15
94 Brayden Pachal D	+0.48	0.00	+0.17	+0.43	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	13:52
16 Morgan Frost C	+0.39	0.00	+0.28	+0.13	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	16:42
91 Nazem Kadri C	+0.38	0.00	+0.46	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	19:51
44 Joel Hanley D	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:41
47 Connor Zary C	+0.14	0.00	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:37
20 Blake Coleman L	+0.09	0.00	+0.04	+0.16	-0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	14:39
11 Mikael Backlund C	0.00	0.00	+0.05	-0.05	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	18:19
7 Kevin Bahl D	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.32	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:17
70 Ryan Lomberg L	-0.30	0.00	+0.13	-0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:12
43 Adam Klapka R	-0.59	0.00	+0.06	-0.61	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	11:43
4 Rasmus Andersson D	-1.10	0.00	+0.05	-1.23	-0.15	0.00	+0.23	—	21:37
32 Dustin Wolf G	-2.78	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.78	5:52

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+2.74	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.74	60:00
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+2.01	+1.30	+0.30	+0.53	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:28
38 Brandon Hagel L	+1.49	+1.45	+0.16	-0.32	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	20:11
67 Declan Carlile D	+1.44	+0.75	+0.08	+0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	15:10
20 Nick Paul L	+1.43	+0.70	+0.24	+0.41	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	—	19:46
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.23	+1.10	+0.01	+0.05	0.00	-0.02	+0.10	—	21:21
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.77	+0.55	+0.09	-0.08	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	9:35
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.73	+0.70	+0.13	-0.24	+0.15	+0.01	-0.02	—	17:27
16 Steven Santini D	+0.70	+0.70	+0.02	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:18
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.62	+0.55	+0.16	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	22:18
37 Yanni Gourde C	+0.60	+0.70	+0.02	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:03
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.43	+0.75	+0.04	-0.35	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	12:59
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.33	0.00	+0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	12:53
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.04	+0.75	+0.05	-0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:58
93 Gage Goncalves C	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:37
78 Emil Lilleberg D	-0.25	0.00	+0.02	-0.01	-0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	18:27
42 Curtis Douglas C	-0.29	0.00	0.00	-0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:31
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.42	0.00	0.00	-0.28	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	20:44
17 Dominic James C	-0.45	0.00	+0.20	-0.66	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	9:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.