Tampa Bay LightningTBL 6–3 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Friday, November 28, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	1	3	2	6	27
Detroit Red WingsDET	1	2	0	3	37

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:29	DET	J.T. Compher (4) Michael Rasmussen (4) · snap xG 0.09	0–1 ▶
17:07	TBL	Darren Raddysh (3)PP Nikita Kucherov (17), Jake Guentzel (13) · slap xG 0.08	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:34	TBL	Gage Goncalves (2) Oliver Bjorkstrand (7), Nick Paul (2) · snap xG 0.19	2–1 ▶
3:01	TBL	Yanni Gourde (4) Unassisted · snap xG 0.33	3–1 ▶
3:13	DET	Michael Rasmussen (3) J.T. Compher (5) · backhand xG 0.31	3–2 ▶
16:09	TBL	Yanni Gourde (5) Unassisted · slap xG 0.12	4–2 ▶
18:26	DET	Dylan Larkin (14) Lucas Raymond (19), Simon Edvinsson (4) · snap xG 0.06	4–3 ▶
3rd Period
12:37	TBL	Jake Guentzel (13) Darren Raddysh (9), Nikita Kucherov (18) · tip-in xG 0.13	5–3 ▶
17:13	TBL	Brandon Hagel (13)EN Darren Raddysh (10) · wrist xG 0.77	6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 54%Deserve to win46% DET

TBL		DET
4.95	Expected goals	3.94
6	Goals (no shootout)	3
3.59	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.62
56	Shot attempts	52
40	Unblocked attempts	48
27	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:01	DET	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 64–36% TBL had led since 1:17 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
5:30	TBL	No shift	No shift · Douglas, 19:22 on the bench No shift from 11:13 of the 1st to 11:11 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (2:02) before that
8:58	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% DET had led since 1:01 of the 2nd, by as much as 65%
3rd Period
16:35	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 5–3 With 3:25 left; TBL scored at 17:13 of the 3rd (6–3)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	2	2	+2	10	0.39	0	0	19:40
59	Jake Guentzel	1	1	2	-1	3	0.30	0	0	18:05
37	Yanni Gourde	2	0	2	+2	5	1.16	1	0	16:21
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	+1	2	0.24	0	0	15:54
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	+2	2	0.13	1	0	15:54
38	Brandon Hagel	1	0	1	+1	12	1.54	2	0	15:19
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	+2	1	0.18	1	0	15:16
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	0	2	0.09	2	1	15:09
20	Nick Paul	0	1	1	-1	1	0.15	0	0	14:00
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	13:56
93	Gage Goncalves	1	0	1	-2	2	0.21	0	0	11:29
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	05:25
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	1	2	3	+2	3	0.18	1	1	24:04
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+2	5	0.08	0	0	23:59
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	2	23:30
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	0	22:56
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	3	0	11:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	3	34	.919	3.94	+0.94

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	1	0	1	0	5	0.40	1	3	19:18
93	Alex DeBrincat	0	0	0	-3	5	0.37	0	1	18:59
23	Lucas Raymond	0	1	1	0	3	0.17	0	0	18:37
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	+1	1	0.12	2	1	16:55
88	Patrick Kane	0	0	0	-3	7	0.93	0	0	16:12
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	14:58
37	J.T. Compher	1	1	2	0	4	0.15	0	0	14:01
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	0	2	0.53	1	0	13:07
27	Michael Rasmussen	1	1	2	+1	4	0.53	3	0	13:01
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	0	0	12:38
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	3	0	12:10
Defense
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	0	6	0.13	4	7	23:43
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	2	1	22:57
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	2	22:10
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	1	0	19:49
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	-2	1	0.11	1	0	14:45
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	-2	3	0.11	2	1	14:02

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	26	5	21	.808	4.18	-0.82

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
37 Yanni Gourde C	+3.83	+1.50	+0.75	+1.62	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	16:21
38 Brandon Hagel L	+2.20	+0.75	+1.00	+0.62	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:19
43 Darren Raddysh D	+1.80	+2.15	+0.12	-0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	24:04
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+1.76	+1.25	+0.25	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	19:40
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+1.57	0.00	+0.12	+1.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:16
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+0.94	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.94	60:00
59 Jake Guentzel C	+0.90	+1.30	+0.19	-0.70	+0.15	-0.02	-0.02	—	18:05
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.86	0.00	+0.01	+0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:56
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.62	0.00	+0.09	+0.56	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:54
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+0.41	0.00	+0.09	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	23:30
67 Declan Carlile D	+0.34	0.00	+0.10	+0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:59
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.04	0.00	+0.16	-0.19	0.00	+0.07	0.00	—	15:54
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	-0.03	+0.70	+0.06	-0.84	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:09
93 Gage Goncalves C	-0.09	+0.75	+0.14	-0.96	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:29
20 Nick Paul L	-0.17	+0.55	+0.10	-0.80	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:00
42 Curtis Douglas C	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:25
16 Steven Santini D	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:04
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.53	0.00	+0.05	-0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:59
17 Dominic James C	-0.80	0.00	+0.01	-0.85	0.00	+0.02	+0.02	—	13:56

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
27 Michael Rasmussen C	+2.36	+1.45	+0.34	+0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:01
37 J.T. Compher L	+2.05	+1.45	+0.10	+0.49	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:01
77 Simon Edvinsson D	+1.14	+0.55	+0.02	+0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:49
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+1.01	0.00	+0.07	+0.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:38
92 Marco Kasper C	+0.96	0.00	+0.34	+0.70	0.00	-0.04	-0.04	—	13:07
71 Dylan Larkin C	+0.74	+0.75	+0.26	-0.39	0.00	-0.03	+0.15	—	19:18
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.67	0.00	+0.03	+0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:10
22 Mason Appleton C	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:58
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.59	0.00	+0.03	+0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:57
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.49	0.00	+0.09	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.39	—	23:43
23 Lucas Raymond L	+0.45	+0.70	+0.11	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:37
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	+0.05	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	16:55
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.02	0.00	+0.03	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	12:10
20 Albert Johansson D	-0.32	0.00	+0.07	-0.54	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:45
29 Nate Danielson C	-0.53	0.00	+0.08	-0.63	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	—	10:40
88 Patrick Kane R	-0.54	0.00	+0.61	-1.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:12
93 Alex DeBrincat R	-0.66	0.00	+0.24	-0.79	-0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	18:59
36 John Gibson G	-0.82	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.82	59:22
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	-0.87	0.00	+0.07	-0.95	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	14:02

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.