Tampa Bay LightningTBL 4–1 Final New York RangersNYR

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	1	1	2	4	35
New York RangersNYR	0	1	0	1	13

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:53	TBL	Brandon Hagel (14) Darren Raddysh (11), Nikita Kucherov (19) · wrist xG 0.06	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
8:57	TBL	Brandon Hagel (15) Nikita Kucherov (20), Darren Raddysh (12) · wrist xG 0.04	2–0 ▶
17:31	NYR	J.T. Miller (7) Adam Fox (23), Mika Zibanejad (10) · deflected xG 0.27	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:02	TBL	Nick Paul (2) Nikita Kucherov (21), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6) · tip-in xG 0.11	3–1 ▶
19:42	TBL	Jake Guentzel (14)EN Yanni Gourde (5), Darren Raddysh (13) · wrist xG 0.92	4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 84%Deserve to win16% NYR

TBL		NYR
6.02	Expected goals	1.70
4	Goals (no shootout)	1
3.35	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.03
70	Shot attempts	52
55	Unblocked attempts	30
35	Shots on goal	13

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NYR 1.45–0.02 In xG over 10 minutes, 1:00 to 11:00 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
8:10	TBL	No shift	No shift · Douglas, 11:47 on the bench No shift from 12:46 of the 1st to 8:57 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (2:04) before that
3rd Period
10:00	NYR	No shift	No shift · Carrick, 11:19 on the bench No shift from 17:09 of the 2nd to 10:49 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (5:11) before that
10:00	TBL	No shift	No shift · Douglas, 16:01 on the bench No shift from 17:31 of the 2nd to 19:42 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:48) before that
10:30	NYR	No shift	No shift · Edstrom, 11:20 on the bench No shift from 17:09 of the 2nd to 10:50 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (5:18) before that
17:27	NYR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Shesterkin, down 3–1 With 2:33 left
18:45	NYR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Shesterkin, down 3–1 With 1:15 left; TBL scored at 19:42 of the 3rd (4–1)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	3	3	+3	6	0.74	1	1	21:40
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	+2	3	0.42	1	1	19:05
38	Brandon Hagel	2	0	2	+3	10	1.10	2	2	18:59
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	0	18:21
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	0	7	0.69	4	1	17:51
59	Jake Guentzel	1	0	1	+1	8	1.34	0	0	17:51
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	+1	3	0.50	0	1	16:03
20	Nick Paul	1	0	1	0	4	0.25	1	2	14:11
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	4	0.36	1	2	13:25
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	09:20
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	08:15
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	05:06
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	3	3	+3	9	0.22	0	2	25:22
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+3	6	0.25	1	0	23:44
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	2	22:17
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	1	1	0	2	0.07	1	4	20:44
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	13:05

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	13	1	12	.923	1.70	+0.70

New York Rangers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
10	Artemi Panarin	0	0	0	-1	7	0.28	0	0	23:40
16	Vincent Trocheck	0	0	0	-2	7	0.27	0	0	22:51
50	Will Cuylle	0	0	0	-2	4	0.06	0	1	22:07
93	Mika Zibanejad	0	1	1	-2	3	0.09	2	0	21:18
10	J.T. Miller	1	0	1	-2	4	0.42	2	0	20:18
13	Alexis Lafrenière	0	0	0	-2	2	0.02	4	0	18:30
42	Noah Laba	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	1	14:14
37	Brett Berard	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	3	11:49
22	Jonny Brodzinski	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	11:13
14	Taylor Raddysh	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	3	2	09:39
84	Adam Edstrom	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	07:01
10	Sam Carrick	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	06:55
Defense
44	Vladislav Gavrikov	0	0	0	-1	5	0.00	1	0	24:23
17	Will Borgen	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	6	2	19:50
7	Carson Soucy	0	0	0	-2	5	0.22	1	4	19:12
23	Adam Fox	0	1	1	+1	6	0.04	0	0	16:27
4	Braden Schneider	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	0	15:48
29	Matthew Robertson	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	13:10

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Igor Shesterkin	34	3	31	.912	3.92	+0.92

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+4.53	+1.95	+0.48	+2.07	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:40
38 Brandon Hagel L	+4.47	+1.50	+0.71	+2.07	+0.15	-0.02	+0.06	—	18:59
43 Darren Raddysh D	+3.92	+1.80	+0.14	+1.96	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	25:22
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+2.10	0.00	+0.27	+1.87	0.00	-0.07	+0.03	—	19:05
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.98	0.00	+0.16	+1.83	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:44
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.83	+0.75	+0.87	+0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:51
37 Yanni Gourde C	+1.40	+0.70	0.00	+0.76	0.00	-0.06	0.00	—	18:21
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+1.30	0.00	+0.45	+0.85	0.00	-0.01	+0.01	—	17:51
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+1.26	+0.55	+0.05	+0.60	-0.15	0.00	+0.22	—	20:44
20 Nick Paul L	+1.11	+0.75	+0.16	+0.11	0.00	-0.01	+0.10	—	14:11
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+1.07	0.00	+0.32	+0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:03
31 Jonas Johansson G	+0.70	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.70	60:00
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+0.63	0.00	+0.03	+0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:17
17 Dominic James C	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.33	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	9:20
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.49	0.00	+0.23	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	13:25
67 Declan Carlile D	+0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:05
16 Steven Santini D	+0.20	0.00	+0.03	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	10:41
93 Gage Goncalves C	-0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	8:15
42 Curtis Douglas C	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	5:06

New York Rangers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
23 Adam Fox D	+1.10	+0.70	+0.03	+0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	16:27
31 Igor Shesterkin G	+0.77	0.00	—	—	-0.15	—	—	+0.92	57:35
8 J.T. Miller C	+0.64	+0.75	+0.27	-0.42	0.00	+0.06	-0.02	—	20:18
93 Mika Zibanejad C	-0.03	+0.55	+0.06	-0.64	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	21:18
10 Artemi Panarin L	-0.14	0.00	+0.18	-0.48	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	23:40
14 Taylor Raddysh R	-0.28	0.00	+0.12	-0.64	+0.15	-0.01	+0.10	—	9:39
39 Sam Carrick C	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.41	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	6:55
50 Will Cuylle L	-0.42	0.00	+0.04	-0.45	0.00	-0.01	+0.01	—	22:07
84 Adam Edstrom C	-0.43	0.00	+0.01	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	7:01
4 Braden Schneider D	-0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:48
16 Vincent Trocheck C	-0.59	0.00	+0.18	-0.79	0.00	+0.06	-0.04	—	22:51
13 Alexis Lafrenière L	-0.70	0.00	+0.01	-0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:30
22 Jonny Brodzinski C	-0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.75	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	11:13
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	24:23
42 Noah Laba C	-1.08	0.00	+0.05	-1.21	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	—	14:14
29 Matthew Robertson D	-1.20	0.00	0.00	-1.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:10
65 Brett Berard L	-1.23	0.00	0.00	-1.38	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	11:49
24 Carson Soucy D	-1.51	0.00	+0.14	-1.81	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	19:12
17 Will Borgen D	-1.84	0.00	0.00	-1.92	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.