Tampa Bay LightningTBL 6–1 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	3	1	2	6	27
Montréal CanadiensMTL	0	1	0	1	27

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:27	TBL	Brayden Point (4) Jake Guentzel (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (8) · snap xG 0.18	1–0 ▶
6:03	TBL	Pontus Holmberg (2) Unassisted · snap xG 0.25	2–0 ▶
17:12	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (13) Max Crozier (4) · slap xG 0.05	3–0 ▶
2nd Period
2:43	TBL	Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3) Nikita Kucherov (23) · snap xG 0.18	4–0 ▶
19:06	MTL	Oliver Kapanen (9)PP Nick Suzuki (25), Ivan Demidov (17) · bat xG 0.24	4–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:22	TBL	Darren Raddysh (4) Anthony Cirelli (9) · snap xG 0.35	5–1 ▶
8:41	TBL	Darren Raddysh (5)PP Brayden Point (9) · snap xG 0.04	6–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 49%Deserve to win51% MTL

TBL		MTL
3.01	Expected goals	3.06
6	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.47	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.36
62	Shot attempts	60
40	Unblocked attempts	42
27	Shots on goal	27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:23	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 60–40% MTL had led since 2:08 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
20:00	MTL	Goalie change	Goalie change · Montembeault in for Dobes The start of the 2nd; Dobes had allowed 3 goals on 14 shots (1.19 xG)
2nd Period
7:55	MTL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 63–37% TBL had led since 19:23 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
7:58	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Johansson +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.05 xG, 16 shots on goal
9:00	MTL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.24–0.19 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:30 of the 1st to 9:30 of the 2nd; goals 0–1
12:30	TBL	No shift	No shift · Hedman, 30:03 on the bench No shift after 18:17 of the 1st; 8 shifts (6:14) before that

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
59	Jake Guentzel	0	1	1	+1	4	0.22	0	1	19:28
21	Brayden Point	1	1	2	+2	3	0.33	0	0	17:44
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	1	2	+3	5	0.16	0	1	17:43
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	+3	3	0.02	0	0	16:54
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	2	1	15:59
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	0	4	0.29	1	0	15:44
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	0	7	0.45	3	0	14:58
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	+3	2	0.09	3	0	14:44
29	Pontus Holmberg	1	0	1	+1	10	0.50	1	1	12:34
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	12:22
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	3	1	09:49
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	2	08:26
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	2	0	2	+3	8	0.43	3	1	24:26
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	1	0	1	+5	5	0.22	1	0	23:46
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	5	3	23:45
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	1	22:13
24	Max Crozier	0	1	1	+1	4	0.03	0	3	15:18
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	0	06:14

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	27	1	26	.963	3.06	+2.06

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	0	1	1	-2	7	0.57	1	0	19:45
13	Cole Caufield	0	0	0	-2	5	0.46	0	0	18:02
20	Juraj Slafkovský	0	0	0	-1	4	0.34	1	1	16:41
91	Oliver Kapanen	1	0	1	-2	5	0.52	0	1	16:24
93	Ivan Demidov	0	1	1	-3	2	0.02	0	0	15:48
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	3	1	15:47
85	Alexandre Texier	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	1	14:38
71	Jake Evans	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	3	0	14:08
90	Joseph Veleno	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	1	12:59
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	1	12:46
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	2	1	12:32
Defense
8	Mike Matheson	0	0	0	-3	4	0.07	0	3	22:04
45	Alexandre Carrier	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	1	2	20:52
48	Lane Hutson	0	0	0	-1	6	0.18	0	1	20:14
53	Noah Dobson	0	0	0	-2	4	0.25	0	3	19:24
72	Arber Xhekaj	0	0	0	0	5	0.05	5	1	16:01
3	Jayden Struble	0	0	0	-2	2	0.01	1	1	14:49

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	14	3	11	.786	1.19	-1.81
Samuel Montembeault	13	3	10	.769	1.83	-1.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
43 Darren Raddysh D	+3.08	+1.50	+0.28	+1.27	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	24:26
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+2.69	+0.75	+0.14	+2.11	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	23:46
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+2.20	+0.75	+0.33	+1.16	-0.08	+0.01	+0.03	—	12:34
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+2.19	+1.45	+0.11	+0.77	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	17:43
31 Jonas Johansson G	+2.06	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.06	60:00
21 Brayden Point C	+1.77	+1.45	+0.22	+0.14	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	17:44
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+1.74	+0.70	+0.06	+1.03	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	14:44
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+1.39	0.00	+0.29	+1.01	+0.15	-0.06	0.00	—	14:58
24 Max Crozier D	+1.30	+0.70	+0.02	+0.51	-0.08	0.00	+0.15	—	15:18
38 Brandon Hagel L	+1.22	0.00	+0.01	+1.05	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	16:54
37 Yanni Gourde C	+1.16	0.00	+0.19	+1.00	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	15:44
59 Jake Guentzel C	+0.64	+0.70	+0.14	-0.24	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	19:28
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.53	+0.55	+0.04	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:59
42 Curtis Douglas C	+0.37	0.00	+0.02	+0.15	+0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	9:49
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+0.30	0.00	+0.01	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	23:45
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	8:26
90 J.J. Moser D	+0.06	0.00	+0.05	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	22:13
77 Victor Hedman D	+0.01	0.00	+0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:14
20 Nick Paul L	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:22

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
85 Alexandre Texier L	+0.43	0.00	+0.04	+0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:38
91 Oliver Kapanen C	+0.30	+0.75	+0.34	-0.85	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	16:24
14 Nick Suzuki C	+0.04	+0.70	+0.37	-1.01	0.00	+0.04	-0.06	—	19:45
76 Zachary Bolduc R	-0.06	0.00	+0.03	-0.01	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	15:47
17 Josh Anderson R	-0.08	0.00	+0.13	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:32
71 Jake Evans C	-0.09	0.00	+0.05	-0.27	+0.08	+0.07	-0.02	—	14:08
90 Joseph Veleno C	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.27	0.00	+0.05	+0.05	—	12:59
53 Noah Dobson D	-0.37	0.00	+0.16	-0.79	+0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	19:24
11 Brendan Gallagher R	-0.37	0.00	+0.01	-0.50	+0.08	0.00	+0.05	—	12:46
8 Mike Matheson D	-0.42	0.00	+0.05	-0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	22:04
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	-0.42	0.00	+0.22	-0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:41
48 Lane Hutson D	-0.45	0.00	+0.12	-0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:14
47 Jayden Struble D	-0.48	0.00	0.00	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:49
93 Ivan Demidov R	-0.49	+0.55	+0.01	-1.19	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:48
72 Arber Xhekaj D	-0.50	0.00	+0.03	-0.26	-0.30	0.00	+0.03	—	16:01
49 Jared Davidson C	-0.54	0.00	+0.12	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:15
13 Cole Caufield R	-0.56	0.00	+0.30	-1.01	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:02
45 Alexandre Carrier D	-0.61	0.00	+0.03	-0.73	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:52
35 Samuel Montembeault G	-1.17	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.17	40:00
75 Jakub Dobes G	-1.81	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.81	19:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.