Tampa Bay LightningTBL 8–4 Final New Jersey DevilsNJD

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	4	2	2	8	35
New Jersey DevilsNJD	1	1	2	4	37

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:57	TBL	Nick Paul (3) Scott Sabourin (2) · snap xG 0.16	1–0 ▶
3:48	TBL	Darren Raddysh (6) Nikita Kucherov (24), Brandon Hagel (13) · slap xG 0.02	2–0 ▶
7:00	NJD	Luke Hughes (2) Brenden Dillon (7), Paul Cotter (5) · snap xG 0.12	2–1 ▶
7:56	TBL	Pontus Holmberg (3) J.J. Moser (7), Yanni Gourde (6) · backhand xG 0.02	3–1 ▶
15:00	TBL	Jake Guentzel (15)PP Oliver Bjorkstrand (9), Darren Raddysh (16) · wrist xG 0.42	4–1 ▶
2nd Period
6:19	TBL	Oliver Bjorkstrand (3) Jake Guentzel (16), Brayden Point (10) · wrist xG 0.18	5–1 ▶
13:12	NJD	Jesper Bratt (6)PP Simon Nemec (10), Stefan Noesen (3) · wrist xG 0.33	5–2 ▶
16:35	TBL	Brandon Hagel (18) Nikita Kucherov (25), Declan Carlile (1) · snap xG 0.04	6–2 ▶
3rd Period
3:13	NJD	Angus Crookshank (1) Colton White (1), Simon Nemec (11) · wrist xG 0.27	6–3 ▶
7:55	TBL	Brayden Point (5) Nikita Kucherov (26), J.J. Moser (8) · wrist xG 0.12	7–3 ▶
15:28	NJD	Paul Cotter (4) Cody Glass (2), Luke Hughes (15) · wrist xG 0.25	7–4 ▶
15:57	TBL	Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)PP Jake Guentzel (17), Nikita Kucherov (27) · wrist xG 0.20	8–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 52%Deserve to win48% NJD

TBL		NJD
3.41	Expected goals	3.26
8	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.18	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.97
55	Shot attempts	64
41	Unblocked attempts	49
35	Shots on goal	37

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
7:56	NJD	Goalie	Goalie · Markstrom −2.5 goals saved 3 goals on 0.54 xG, 7 shots on goal
7:56	NJD	Goalie change	Goalie change · Allen in for Markstrom 7:56 of the 1st; Markstrom had allowed 3 goals on 7 shots (0.54 xG)
15:00	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 68–32% NJD had led since 5:29 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
15:30	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NJD 1.31–0.20 In xG over 10 minutes, 5:40 to 15:40 of the 1st; goals 2–1
2nd Period
17:40	NJD	No shift	No shift · Parent, 10:21 on the bench No shift from 6:19 to 17:59 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (3:34) before that
17:40	NJD	No shift	No shift · Glendening, 10:23 on the bench No shift from 6:19 to 18:01 of the 2nd; 8 shifts (4:46) before that
3rd Period
15:57	NJD	Goalie	Goalie · Allen −2.3 goals saved 5 goals on 2.70 xG, 27 shots on goal

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NJD shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
37	Yanni Gourde	0	1	1	+2	1	0.02	1	1	19:31
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	3	1	18:44
38	Brandon Hagel	1	1	2	+2	7	0.60	1	2	16:55
29	Pontus Holmberg	1	0	1	+2	3	0.03	0	0	16:19
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	4	4	+2	6	0.24	0	0	16:12
21	Brayden Point	1	1	2	+1	4	0.22	0	1	15:27
59	Jake Guentzel	1	2	3	+1	4	0.59	0	1	15:22
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	0	1	14:17
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	2	1	3	0	3	0.50	1	0	13:47
20	Nick Paul	1	0	1	0	2	0.26	0	0	12:38
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	0	09:48
49	Scott Sabourin	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	1	09:08
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	1	1	2	+2	3	0.02	2	1	23:09
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	2	0	20:59
90	J.J. Moser	0	2	2	+2	5	0.13	0	0	20:49
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	+1	3	0.04	3	2	19:23
24	Max Crozier	0	0	0	0	4	0.04	0	2	17:12
72	Declan Carlile	0	1	1	+2	3	0.12	2	0	16:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	37	4	33	.892	3.26	-0.74

New Jersey Devils

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
81	Arseny Gritsyuk	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	0	19:44
16	Connor Brown	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	0	0	19:20
13	Nico Hischier	0	0	0	-2	5	0.29	2	1	17:21
63	Jesper Bratt	1	0	1	-1	5	0.73	3	0	16:46
91	Dawson Mercer	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	1	16:45
11	Stefan Noesen	0	1	1	-2	6	0.26	1	0	15:59
12	Cody Glass	0	1	1	0	3	0.26	1	0	15:46
81	Ondrej Palat	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	4	3	14:43
47	Paul Cotter	1	1	2	0	4	0.45	6	0	14:04
41	Luke Glendening	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	10:16
Defense
43	Luke Hughes	1	1	2	0	4	0.16	0	1	23:52
71	Simon Nemec	0	2	2	-2	6	0.20	1	1	20:52
7	Dougie Hamilton	0	0	0	-2	10	0.35	1	0	19:53
5	Brenden Dillon	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4	3	19:37
71	Jonas Siegenthaler	0	0	0	-2	7	0.04	2	1	17:23
6	Colton White	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	4	2	14:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jacob Markstrom	7	3	4	.571	0.54	-2.46
Jake Allen	28	5	23	.821	2.87	-2.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+3.60	+2.65	+0.15	+0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:12
38 Brandon Hagel L	+3.42	+1.30	+0.39	+1.63	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:55
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+2.91	+2.20	+0.33	+0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:47
59 Jake Guentzel C	+2.54	+2.15	+0.38	-0.05	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:22
21 Brayden Point C	+2.00	+1.30	+0.15	+0.50	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:27
43 Darren Raddysh D	+1.77	+1.30	+0.01	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:09
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.69	+1.25	+0.09	+0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:49
67 Declan Carlile D	+1.47	+0.55	+0.08	+0.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:04
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+1.15	0.00	+0.16	+0.77	+0.15	+0.02	+0.05	—	14:17
20 Nick Paul L	+1.01	+0.75	+0.17	+0.10	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	12:38
24 Max Crozier D	+0.55	0.00	+0.03	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	17:12
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.48	+0.70	0.00	+0.03	-0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	9:08
42 Curtis Douglas C	+0.43	0.00	+0.11	+0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:48
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.27	+0.75	+0.02	-0.65	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:19
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+0.13	0.00	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:23
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.19	+0.55	+0.01	-0.57	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	—	19:31
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-0.27	0.00	+0.11	-0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:59
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.78	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	18:44
31 Jonas Johansson G	-0.74	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.74	59:22

New Jersey Devils

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
63 Jesper Bratt L	+1.67	+0.75	+0.47	+0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:46
47 Paul Cotter L	+1.23	+1.30	+0.29	-0.36	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:04
11 Stefan Noesen R	+1.14	+0.55	+0.17	+0.44	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	15:59
43 Luke Hughes D	+0.89	+1.30	+0.11	-0.59	+0.04	0.00	+0.03	—	23:52
5 Brenden Dillon D	+0.78	+0.70	0.00	-0.30	+0.26	0.00	+0.13	—	19:37
36 Angus Crookshank C	+0.61	+0.75	+0.23	-0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:24
7 Dougie Hamilton D	+0.61	0.00	+0.23	+0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:53
12 Cody Glass C	+0.59	+0.70	+0.17	-0.26	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:46
17 Simon Nemec D	+0.53	+1.25	+0.13	-0.71	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	20:52
45 Colton White D	+0.43	+0.70	+0.01	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	14:46
13 Nico Hischier C	+0.39	0.00	+0.19	+0.26	-0.15	+0.04	+0.05	—	17:21
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D	+0.02	0.00	+0.02	-0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:23
16 Connor Brown R	-0.08	0.00	+0.03	-0.27	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	19:20
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R	-0.26	0.00	+0.01	-0.25	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:44
91 Dawson Mercer C	-0.39	0.00	+0.02	-0.36	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	—	16:45
14 Luke Glendening C	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.47	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	10:16
18 Ondrej Palat L	-0.60	0.00	+0.03	-0.62	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	14:43
67 Xavier Parent C	-0.68	0.00	+0.01	-0.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:42
34 Jake Allen G	-2.13	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.13	52:02
25 Jacob Markstrom G	-2.46	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.46	7:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.