Florida PanthersFLA 5–2 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Monday, December 15, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	2	2	1	5	24
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	1	1	2	28

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:16	FLA	Sam Reinhart (16)SH Aaron Ekblad (8) · wrist xG 0.10	1–0 ▶
3:48	FLA	Anton Lundell (10) Uvis Balinskis (5), Seth Jones (14) · wrist xG 0.13	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
11:48	FLA	Brad Marchand (19) Carter Verhaeghe (16), Aaron Ekblad (9) · tip-in xG 0.11	3–0 ▶
18:08	FLA	Sam Reinhart (17)PP Mackie Samoskevich (12) · snap xG 0.22	4–0 ▶
19:27	TBL	Max Crozier (1) Oliver Bjorkstrand (10), Brayden Point (12) · slap xG 0.04	4–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:11	TBL	J.J. Moser (3) Brayden Point (13), Darren Raddysh (17) · snap xG 0.09	4–2 ▶
6:37	FLA	Carter Verhaeghe (10) Uvis Balinskis (6) · backhand xG 0.24	5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 56%Deserve to win44% TBL

FLA		TBL
2.37	Expected goals	2.05
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.44	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.06
34	Shot attempts	63
29	Unblocked attempts	46
24	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:08	FLA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 64–36% TBL had led since 3:36 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
3rd Period
6:37	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Johansson −2.6 goals saved 5 goals on 2.37 xG, 24 shots on goal
14:20	FLA	No shift	No shift · Gregor, 10:20 on the bench No shift from 2:11 to 16:55 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (4:09) before that
14:20	FLA	No shift	No shift · Forsling, 12:30 on the bench No shift after 3:18 of the 3rd; 24 shifts (13:57) before that
16:50	TBL	No shift	No shift · Hagel, 12:22 on the bench No shift after 4:22 of the 3rd; 18 shifts (13:32) before that

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	2	0	2	+2	6	0.62	0	0	22:19
15	Anton Lundell	1	0	1	+2	1	0.13	2	2	19:50
17	Evan Rodrigues	0	0	0	0	4	0.32	1	1	18:18
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	1	1	0	2	0.18	5	0	16:42
9	Sam Bennett	0	0	0	+2	4	0.17	4	0	16:04
63	Brad Marchand	1	0	1	+2	2	0.11	2	0	15:55
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	2	1	15:24
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	0	4	0.27	0	0	15:02
23	Carter Verhaeghe	1	1	2	+2	3	0.36	2	1	14:57
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	07:59
73	Noah Gregor	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	06:24
23	Jack Studnicka	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	05:40
Defense
3	Seth Jones	0	1	1	+1	4	0.13	2	5	26:14
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	2	2	0	0	0.00	0	2	23:06
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	19:24
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	0	16:34
2	Jeff Petry	0	0	0	+2	3	0.04	0	0	16:11
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	13:57

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	28	2	26	.929	2.05	+0.05

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Brayden Point	0	2	2	+1	3	0.35	0	0	20:41
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	2	0	20:24
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	0	0	-2	6	0.33	1	0	18:40
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	+1	3	0.16	2	0	17:28
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-2	3	0.20	2	0	16:53
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	1	0	15:59
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	7	1	14:53
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	-2	4	0.07	6	0	13:33
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	-1	6	0.08	1	0	13:32
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	0	0	12:06
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	09:25
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	2	0	09:05
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	1	1	-1	12	0.18	2	1	24:56
90	J.J. Moser	1	0	1	+2	5	0.11	2	1	21:50
24	Max Crozier	1	0	1	-1	2	0.04	2	0	19:59
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-2	2	0.03	0	0	19:08
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	2	0	13:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	24	5	19	.792	2.37	-2.63

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+2.22	+1.45	+0.24	+0.52	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	14:57
13 Sam Reinhart C	+2.02	+1.50	+0.40	+0.10	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	22:19
26 Uvis Balinskis D	+1.71	+1.40	0.00	+0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:34
63 Brad Marchand L	+1.57	+0.75	+0.07	+0.52	+0.22	0.00	0.00	—	15:55
5 Aaron Ekblad D	+1.57	+1.25	0.00	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	23:06
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+1.54	+0.70	+0.12	+0.74	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:42
15 Anton Lundell C	+1.14	+0.75	+0.09	+0.11	+0.15	-0.05	+0.10	—	19:50
17 Evan Rodrigues C	+0.95	0.00	+0.21	+0.78	-0.08	+0.03	+0.01	—	18:18
9 Sam Bennett C	+0.79	0.00	+0.11	+0.65	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	16:04
3 Seth Jones D	+0.76	+0.55	+0.09	-0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	26:14
2 Jeff Petry D	+0.73	0.00	+0.03	+0.72	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:11
10 A.J. Greer L	+0.72	0.00	+0.17	+0.40	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:02
42 Gustav Forsling D	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.36	-0.30	0.00	+0.10	—	13:57
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	+0.05	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.05	60:00
77 Niko Mikkola D	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	19:24
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	-0.34	0.00	+0.02	-0.40	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	15:24
18 Noah Gregor L	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	6:24
70 Jesper Boqvist C	-0.80	0.00	0.00	-0.83	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	7:59
53 Jack Studnicka C	-0.87	0.00	0.00	-0.83	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	5:40

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
21 Brayden Point C	+1.97	+1.25	+0.22	+0.51	0.00	+0.03	-0.04	—	20:41
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.61	+0.75	+0.07	+0.74	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:50
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+1.11	+0.70	+0.10	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	17:28
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.79	+0.55	+0.12	+0.24	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	24:56
59 Jake Guentzel C	+0.68	0.00	+0.09	+0.48	+0.15	-0.04	0.00	—	20:24
24 Max Crozier D	+0.39	+0.75	+0.03	-0.31	-0.08	0.00	0.00	—	19:59
86 Nikita Kucherov R	-0.03	0.00	+0.21	-0.37	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:40
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.04	0.00	+0.07	-0.27	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	12:06
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:25
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:53
42 Curtis Douglas C	-0.24	0.00	+0.04	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	9:05
71 Anthony Cirelli C	-0.34	0.00	+0.07	-0.37	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	15:59
16 Steven Santini D	-0.38	0.00	+0.02	-0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:00
67 Declan Carlile D	-0.47	0.00	+0.07	-0.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:04
20 Nick Paul L	-0.50	0.00	+0.04	-0.54	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	13:33
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.54	0.00	+0.13	-0.55	-0.15	+0.05	-0.02	—	16:53
38 Brandon Hagel L	-0.66	0.00	+0.05	-0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:32
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-0.67	0.00	+0.02	-0.59	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	—	19:08
31 Jonas Johansson G	-2.63	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.63	59:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.