| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 25 |
 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 5:37 | |
Eetu Luostarinen (4) Mackie Samoskevich (14), Evan Rodrigues (11) · backhand xG 0.21 | 0–1 ▶ |
| 13:05 | |
Jake Guentzel (18)SH Anthony Cirelli (11), Max Crozier (6) · snap xG 0.14 | 1–1 ▶ |
| 19:52 | |
Pontus Holmberg (5) Yanni Gourde (8), Declan Carlile (2) · snap xG 0.11 | 2–1 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 2:31 | |
Nikita Kucherov (14) Brayden Point (14), Gage Goncalves (6) · backhand xG 0.16 | 3–1 ▶ |
| 7:05 | |
Brad Marchand (21)PP Sam Bennett (14), Sam Reinhart (20) · snap xG 0.17 | 3–2 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 19:04 | |
Nikita Kucherov (15)EN Anthony Cirelli (12) · backhand xG 0.40 | 4–2 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| TBL | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.98 | Expected goals | 3.91 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.46 |
| 44 | Shot attempts | 65 |
| 34 | Unblocked attempts | 47 |
| 25 | Shots on goal | 26 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:20 | FLA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.59–0.39
In xG over 10 minutes, 18:20 of the 2nd to 8:20 of the 3rd; neither team scored |
| 18:27 | FLA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 3–2
With 1:33 left; TBL scored at 19:04 of the 3rd (4–2) |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 59 | Jake Guentzel | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 3 | 27:14 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 0.92 | 2 | 0 | 18:29 |
| 21 | Brayden Point | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 0.02 | 3 | 1 | 17:10 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 2 | 0 | 16:06 |
| 37 | Yanni Gourde | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.04 | 1 | 1 | 15:04 |
| 20 | Nick Paul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 4 | 2 | 14:22 |
| 29 | Pontus Holmberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 2 | 13:20 |
| 28 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 2 | 0 | 12:13 |
| 93 | Gage Goncalves | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 |
| 49 | Scott Sabourin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 06:32 |
| 42 | Curtis Douglas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 03:45 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Darren Raddysh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.33 | 3 | 2 | 25:07 |
| 90 | J.J. Moser | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.03 | 2 | 2 | 22:28 |
| 24 | Max Crozier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.08 | 4 | 3 | 20:25 |
| 72 | Declan Carlile | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 18:32 |
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 16:42 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 26 | 2 | 24 | .923 | 3.91 | +1.91 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 8 | 0.45 | 0 | 1 | 24:43 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 7 | 0.70 | 2 | 0 | 21:55 |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.92 | 6 | 0 | 20:14 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 20:13 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 6 | 0.27 | 3 | 0 | 19:19 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 0 | 18:14 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.21 | 0 | 1 | 16:56 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 0 | 14:37 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 3 | 1 | 10:12 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 07:51 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 04:39 |
| 23 | Jack Studnicka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 03:42 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 3 | Seth Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 7 | 0.04 | 0 | 3 | 25:53 |
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 2 | 1 | 20:36 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 16:47 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 2 | 14:28 |
| 26 | Uvis Balinskis | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 09:51 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 24 | 3 | 21 | .875 | 2.34 | -0.66 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 Nikita Kucherov R | +2.95 | +1.50 | +0.60 | +0.59 | +0.30 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:29 |
| 88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G | +1.91 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.91 | 59:46 |
| 29 Pontus Holmberg R | +1.78 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.66 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.08 | — | 13:20 |
| 37 Yanni Gourde C | +1.57 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.92 | -0.14 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 15:04 |
| 21 Brayden Point C | +1.56 | +0.70 | +0.23 | +0.66 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 17:16 |
| 24 Max Crozier D | +1.11 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.42 | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 20:25 |
| 93 Gage Goncalves C | +0.77 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.20 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 10:52 |
| 67 Declan Carlile D | +0.70 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 18:32 |
| 71 Anthony Cirelli C | +0.58 | +1.40 | +0.01 | -1.02 | +0.13 | -0.04 | +0.09 | — | 17:10 |
| 59 Jake Guentzel C | +0.48 | +0.75 | +0.31 | -0.70 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 | — | 27:14 |
| 51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:42 |
| 43 Darren Raddysh D | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.22 | -0.34 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:07 |
| 22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 12:13 |
| 16 Steven Santini D | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 7:58 |
| 28 Zemgus Girgensons C | -0.11 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.11 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:06 |
| 20 Nick Paul L | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.34 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.10 | — | 14:22 |
| 42 Curtis Douglas C | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 3:45 |
| 90 J.J. Moser D | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 22:28 |
| 46 Scott Sabourin R | -0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.34 | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:32 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Eetu Luostarinen C | +2.62 | +0.75 | +0.60 | +1.09 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | — | 20:14 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | +1.37 | +0.55 | +0.14 | +0.64 | +0.02 | -0.03 | +0.05 | — | 16:56 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +1.29 | +0.70 | +0.39 | +0.37 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:14 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 14:28 |
| 53 Jack Studnicka C | +0.69 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.45 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 3:42 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:51 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | +0.61 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.82 | -0.25 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:36 |
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | +0.44 | +0.55 | +0.29 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 24:43 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | +0.42 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.24 | +0.15 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 4:39 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:13 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:00 |
| 26 Uvis Balinskis D | -0.05 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.10 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:51 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.36 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:47 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:12 |
| 63 Brad Marchand L | -0.14 | +0.75 | +0.46 | -1.36 | +0.08 | -0.01 | -0.06 | — | 21:55 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.69 | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 25:53 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | -0.61 | +0.70 | +0.18 | -1.35 | -0.16 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 19:19 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | -0.66 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.66 | 58:50 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | -0.81 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.97 | +0.04 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:37 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.