| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:15 | Tom Willander (3) Elias Pettersson (19), Jake DeBrusk (13) · wrist xG 0.05 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 1:51 | Macklin Celebrini (27) Will Smith (20), Sam Dickinson (6) · slap xG 0.09 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 4:43 | Adam Gaudette (11) William Eklund (21), Macklin Celebrini (49) · snap xG 0.20 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 5:55 | Tyler Toffoli (15) Alexander Wennberg (25), Sam Dickinson (7) · snap xG 0.22 | 3–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 9:07 | Will Smith (15)PP John Klingberg (9), Macklin Celebrini (50) · snap xG 0.18 | 4–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 0:28 | John Klingberg (10)PP Will Smith (21), Macklin Celebrini (51) · wrist xG 0.05 | 5–1 ▶ | |
| 9:15 | Filip Hronek (5)PP Elias Pettersson (20), Jake DeBrusk (14) · slap xG 0.10 | 5–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| SJS | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.24 | Expected goals | 2.93 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.24 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.04 |
| 67 | Shot attempts | 47 |
| 46 | Unblocked attempts | 35 |
| 33 | Shots on goal | 25 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 5:55 | VAN | Goalie | Goalie · Lankinen −2.3 goals saved
3 goals on 0.67 xG, 6 shots on goal |
| 5:55 | VAN | Goalie change | Goalie change · Tolopilo in for Lankinen
5:55 of the 1st; Lankinen had allowed 3 goals on 6 shots (0.67 xG) |
| 13:40 | SJS | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced VAN 1.35–0.29
In xG over 10 minutes, 3:40 to 13:40 of the 1st; goals 2–0 |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 21 | Alexander Wennberg | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 0 | 20:06 |
| 71 | Macklin Celebrini | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 0.44 | 1 | 1 | 17:38 |
| 2 | Will Smith | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 0 | 17:30 |
| 27 | William Eklund | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 16:15 |
| 84 | Pavol Regenda | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 14:50 |
| 51 | Collin Graf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 0 | 14:50 |
| 77 | Michael Misa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 |
| 73 | Tyler Toffoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 9 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 |
| 23 | Barclay Goodrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 11:52 |
| 75 | Ryan Reaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 3 | 1 | 11:21 |
| 81 | Adam Gaudette | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 |
| 63 | Zack Ostapchuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11:16 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 38 | Mario Ferraro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 2 | 2 | 21:38 |
| 73 | Vincent Desharnais | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.00 | 2 | 4 | 21:07 |
| 3 | John Klingberg | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 |
| 6 | Sam Dickinson | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 19:13 |
| 27 | Timothy Liljegren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.18 | 1 | 0 | 17:21 |
| 9 | Dmitry Orlov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | 1 | 0 | 16:25 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | 25 | 2 | 23 | .920 | 2.93 | +0.93 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 40 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 2 | 3 | 18:10 |
| 74 | Jake DeBrusk | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.59 | 0 | 1 | 17:18 |
| 94 | Linus Karlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 16:23 |
| 88 | Jonathan Lekkerimäki | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.66 | 2 | 0 | 16:05 |
| 73 | Teddy Blueger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 2 | 1 | 15:36 |
| 83 | Conor Garland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.37 | 2 | 1 | 15:08 |
| 77 | Filip Chytil | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 |
| 18 | Drew O'Connor | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 13:41 |
| 92 | Liam Ohgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 0 | 13:33 |
| 91 | Evander Kane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.02 | 3 | 0 | 12:24 |
| 54 | Aatu Räty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 1 | 12:23 |
| 21 | Nils Hoglander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 0 | 11:05 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 17 | Filip Hronek | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 0.31 | 2 | 2 | 23:39 |
| 26 | Marcus Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 3 | 20:54 |
| 57 | Tyler Myers | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 2 | 18:20 |
| 25 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 3 | 2 | 18:05 |
| 90 | Victor Mancini | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 17:35 |
| 5 | Tom Willander | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 16:35 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen | 6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 0.67 | -2.33 |
| Nikita Tolopilo | 27 | 2 | 25 | .926 | 2.57 | +0.57 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 Macklin Celebrini C | +3.37 | +2.40 | +0.29 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:38 |
| 2 Will Smith C | +2.35 | +2.15 | +0.13 | +0.25 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 17:30 |
| 73 Tyler Toffoli C | +1.92 | +0.75 | +0.35 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:55 |
| 3 John Klingberg D | +1.77 | +1.45 | +0.11 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:40 |
| 6 Sam Dickinson D | +1.64 | +1.10 | +0.01 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 19:13 |
| 21 Alexander Wennberg C | +1.62 | +0.70 | +0.26 | +0.79 | 0.00 | -0.11 | -0.02 | — | 20:06 |
| 81 Adam Gaudette R | +1.05 | +0.75 | +0.20 | +0.12 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 11:21 |
| 72 William Eklund L | +1.00 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:15 |
| 84 Pavol Regenda L | +1.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:50 |
| 38 Mario Ferraro D | +0.96 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 21:38 |
| 30 Yaroslav Askarov G | +0.93 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.93 | 59:52 |
| 37 Timothy Liljegren D | +0.93 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.68 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:21 |
| 5 Vincent Desharnais D | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | — | 21:07 |
| 75 Ryan Reaves R | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:21 |
| 51 Collin Graf R | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:50 |
| 63 Zack Ostapchuk C | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | 11:16 |
| 9 Dmitry Orlov D | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:25 |
| 23 Barclay Goodrow C | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.29 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:52 |
| 77 Michael Misa C | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.10 | +0.15 | -0.06 | -0.04 | — | 14:17 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 Elias Pettersson C | +0.68 | +1.40 | +0.09 | -1.03 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.15 | — | 18:10 |
| 5 Tom Willander D | +0.68 | +0.75 | +0.05 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:35 |
| 60 Nikita Tolopilo G | +0.57 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.57 | 54:05 |
| 74 Jake DeBrusk L | +0.55 | +1.10 | +0.38 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:18 |
| 8 Conor Garland R | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 15:08 |
| 21 Nils Hoglander L | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:05 |
| 54 Aatu Räty C | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.07 | — | 12:23 |
| 92 Liam Ohgren L | +0.12 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.13 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:33 |
| 17 Filip Hronek D | -0.01 | +0.75 | +0.20 | -1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 23:39 |
| 29 Marcus Pettersson D | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 20:54 |
| 23 Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.43 | -0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:05 |
| 57 Tyler Myers D | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 18:20 |
| 72 Filip Chytil C | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.27 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | — | 14:14 |
| 53 Teddy Blueger C | -0.24 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.23 | -0.15 | +0.04 | +0.03 | — | 15:36 |
| 91 Evander Kane L | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.09 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 12:24 |
| 18 Drew O'Connor L | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:41 |
| 94 Linus Karlsson C | -0.66 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.93 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 16:23 |
| 90 Victor Mancini D | -0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:35 |
| 25 Elias Pettersson D | -1.01 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 18:05 |
| 32 Kevin Lankinen G | -2.33 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.33 | 5:55 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.