hockeystats.io

Washington CapitalsWSH 4–3 Final/SO Detroit Red WingsDET

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 10203 4 23
Detroit Red WingsDET 01202 3 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:27 WSH Nic Dowd (3) Connor McMichael (23), Jakob Chychrun (21) · snap xG 0.06 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
9:52 DET Ben Chiarot (5) Alex DeBrincat (27), Patrick Kane (24) · slap xG 0.05 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
9:36 WSH Dylan Strome (15) Alex Ovechkin (24), Jakob Chychrun (22) · wrap-around xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
14:44 WSH Declan Chisholm (1) Jakob Chychrun (23), Dylan Strome (29) · deflected xG 0.15 3–1 ▶
18:20 DET Alex DeBrincat (29) Dylan Larkin (23), Andrew Copp (25) · wrist xG 0.20 3–2 ▶
19:07 DET Alex DeBrincat (30) Moritz Seider (30) · wrist xG 0.01 3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
DET Lucas Raymond vs Charlie Lindgren Goal
WSH Dylan Strome vs John Gibson Goal
DET Patrick Kane vs Charlie Lindgren Goal
WSH Ryan Leonard vs John Gibson Goal
DET Dylan Larkin vs Charlie Lindgren Missed
WSH Nic Dowd vs John Gibson Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 30%Deserve to win70% DET
WSHDET
1.66Expected goals2.73
3Goals (no shootout)3
1.19Expected goals, 5 on 51.02
49Shot attempts63
31Unblocked attempts40
23Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:14 DET Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 3–1
With 2:46 left; DET scored at 18:20 of the 3rd (3–2)
18:25 DET Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 3–2
With 1:35 left; DET scored at 19:07 of the 3rd (3–3)
Overtime
0:40 DET xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.31–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:50 of the 3rd to 0:50 of overtime; goals 2–1

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots
Patrick Kane: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:42) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:45) Moritz Seider: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:55) Patrick Kane: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:13) Ryan Leonard: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:52) Declan Chisholm: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:59) Mason Appleton: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:12) Marco Kasper: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:39) Dylan Strome: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:47) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:48) Martin Fehérváry: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:22) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:08) Rasmus Sandin: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:12) Ryan Leonard: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:31) Justin Sourdif: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:15) Andrew Copp: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:44) Marco Kasper: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:58) Trevor van Riemsdyk: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:31) Marco Kasper: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:20) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:40) Rasmus Sandin: wrist, 120 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:52) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:04) Mason Appleton: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:27) J.T. Compher: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:05) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:12) Michael Rasmussen: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:41) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:48) Andrew Copp: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:32) Lucas Raymond: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:17) Ben Chiarot: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:34) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:49) John Carlson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:43) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:57) Nic Dowd: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:04) John Carlson: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:23) Patrick Kane: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:40) Albert Johansson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:31) Moritz Seider: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:41) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:35) J.T. Compher: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:25) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:09) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:34) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:52) Hendrix Lapierre: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:11) Moritz Seider: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:14) Patrick Kane: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:14) Ryan Leonard: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:26) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:47) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:06) Tom Wilson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:25) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 12:22) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:27) Marco Kasper: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 13:39) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:02) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:20) Ben Chiarot: slap, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:34) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 17:20) Moritz Seider: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:50) Andrew Copp: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:52) Lucas Raymond: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:44) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.26 (OT 0:34) Dylan Larkin: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 0:49) John Carlson: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:10) Ryan Leonard: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:47) Jakob Chychrun: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 4:50) Nic Dowd: GOAL, snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:27) Ben Chiarot: GOAL, slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:52) Dylan Strome: GOAL, wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:36) Declan Chisholm: GOAL, deflected, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 14:44) Alex DeBrincat: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:20) Alex DeBrincat: GOAL, wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:07)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 -2 50.10 4221:13
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 -2 40.03 0121:09
17 Dylan Strome 112 +2 30.09 0118:31
26 Nic Dowd 101 -1 20.16 6217:49
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 +1 10.00 1017:21
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 30.16 0117:10
77 Connor McMichael 011 0 10.00 2016:17
8 Alex Ovechkin 011 +1 70.17 3016:00
9 Ryan Leonard 000 0 40.21 4215:05
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 10.00 1009:13
53 Ethen Frank 000 +1 00.00 1008:48
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 10.04 1106:48
Defense
74 John Carlson 000 -1 60.28 0527:25
6 Jakob Chychrun 033 +3 30.05 0026:58
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 -3 10.09 2421:39
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -1 30.08 1220:04
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 +1 10.01 0016:18
47 Declan Chisholm 101 +1 30.18 0009:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Charlie Lindgren 21318 .857 2.73 -0.27

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Dylan Larkin 011 +1 60.52 0024:38
93 Alex DeBrincat 213 +2 80.41 0121:28
23 Lucas Raymond 000 +2 80.38 0020:41
88 Patrick Kane 011 +2 50.20 0119:08
18 Andrew Copp 011 +3 30.26 1018:17
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 50.39 3015:56
37 J.T. Compher 000 -1 40.19 0115:07
22 Mason Appleton 000 -1 20.02 0013:56
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 -1 00.00 0013:10
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 -1 20.09 0212:52
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 -1 10.00 3011:29
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 -1 20.00 2010:13
Defense
53 Moritz Seider 011 +2 80.13 0131:57
8 Ben Chiarot 101 -2 50.08 2120:40
20 Albert Johansson 000 -1 20.01 0219:16
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 00.00 1118:44
52 Travis Hamonic 000 +1 00.00 0413:56
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 -2 20.04 1111:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 23320 .870 1.66 -1.34

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
6 Jakob Chychrun D +2.53 +1.80 +0.03 +0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 26:58
17 Dylan Strome C +2.22 +1.30 +0.06 +0.75 0.00 +0.06 +0.05 — 18:31
8 Alex Ovechkin L +1.25 +0.70 +0.11 +0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:00
47 Declan Chisholm D +1.10 +0.75 +0.12 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:22
26 Nic Dowd C +0.75 +0.75 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 -0.05 +0.10 — 17:49
74 John Carlson D +0.63 0.00 +0.18 +0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.27 — 27:25
24 Connor McMichael C +0.56 +0.70 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:17
53 Ethen Frank C +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 8:48
34 Justin Sourdif R +0.37 0.00 +0.10 +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 17:10
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:21
43 Tom Wilson R +0.19 0.00 +0.06 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.15 — 21:13
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.27 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:18
22 Brandon Duhaime R +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:13
29 Hendrix Lapierre C +0.07 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 6:48
9 Ryan Leonard R +0.04 0.00 +0.14 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:05
42 Martin Fehérváry D -0.02 0.00 +0.06 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 21:39
38 Rasmus Sandin D -0.15 0.00 +0.05 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:04
21 Aliaksei Protas C -0.18 0.00 +0.02 -0.23 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 21:09
79 Charlie Lindgren G -0.42 0.00 — — -0.15 — — -0.27 65:00

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R +2.35 +2.20 +0.27 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:28
53 Moritz Seider D +1.21 +0.70 +0.08 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 31:57
71 Dylan Larkin C +0.96 +0.70 +0.34 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:38
18 Andrew Copp C +0.89 +0.55 +0.17 +0.16 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 18:17
88 Patrick Kane R +0.61 +0.55 +0.13 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:08
23 Lucas Raymond L +0.58 0.00 +0.25 +0.18 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:41
92 Marco Kasper C +0.43 0.00 +0.25 +0.16 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 15:56
52 Travis Hamonic D +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 13:56
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:44
37 J.T. Compher L +0.12 0.00 +0.12 -0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 15:07
8 Ben Chiarot D +0.07 +0.75 +0.05 -0.64 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:40
58 Emmitt Finnie C -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:13
22 Mason Appleton C -0.28 0.00 +0.01 -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:56
27 Michael Rasmussen C -0.31 0.00 +0.06 -0.39 0.00 -0.04 +0.06 — 12:52
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D -0.33 0.00 +0.03 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:20
21 James van Riemsdyk L -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:10
85 Elmer Soderblom L -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:29
20 Albert Johansson D -0.58 0.00 +0.01 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:16
36 John Gibson G -1.34 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.34 63:12

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.