| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 |
 |
0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 42 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
Highlights
Scoring
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:27 | |
Mark Jankowski (5) William Carrier (6), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7) · snap xG 0.18 | 1–0 ▶ |
| 17:51 | |
Sebastian Aho (18) Unassisted · snap xG 0.30 | 2–0 ▶ |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 4:16 | |
Shayne Gostisbehere (9) Jordan Martinook (11), Jordan Staal (11) · snap xG 0.01 | 3–0 ▶ |
| 7:52 | |
Hendrix Lapierre (2) Sonny Milano (4) · snap xG 0.09 | 3–1 ▶ |
| 14:58 | |
Dylan Strome (16) Aliaksei Protas (17), Jakob Chychrun (24) · tip-in xG 0.19 | 3–2 ▶ |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 13:18 | |
Jakob Chychrun (19) Aliaksei Protas (18), Tom Wilson (25) · snap xG 0.08 | 3–3 ▶ |
| Overtime | |||
| 1:42 | |
Justin Sourdif (12) John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11) · snap xG 0.47 | 3–4 ▶ |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| CAR | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.92 | Expected goals | 5.25 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 4 |
| 2.51 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.76 |
| 55 | Shot attempts | 81 |
| 44 | Unblocked attempts | 63 |
| 22 | Shots on goal | 42 |
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 7:49 | CAR | Goalie | Goalie · Andersen +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.07 xG, 22 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 19:50 | WSH | Shortened bench | Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Lapierre and Milano: no shift after 9:47 of the 3rd |
| 19:50 | WSH | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.02–0.01
In xG over 10 minutes, 9:50 to 19:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0 |
Shot map
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
Box score
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 20 | Sebastian Aho | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 |
| 24 | Seth Jarvis | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 |
| 48 | Jordan Martinook | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 16:00 |
| 11 | Jordan Staal | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 7 | 0 | 15:19 |
| 37 | Andrei Svechnikov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 0.59 | 1 | 0 | 15:16 |
| 27 | Nikolaj Ehlers | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 | 14:58 |
| 53 | Jackson Blake | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 |
| 71 | Taylor Hall | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 2 | 13:41 |
| 22 | Logan Stankoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.11 | 3 | 0 | 13:37 |
| 77 | Mark Jankowski | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.37 | 3 | 1 | 12:42 |
| 82 | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.06 | 2 | 1 | 12:26 |
| 28 | William Carrier | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 4 | 0 | 11:04 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 5 | Jalen Chatfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 23:09 |
| 19 | K'Andre Miller | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 1 | 2 | 22:43 |
| 74 | Jaccob Slavin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 3 | 22:41 |
| 26 | Sean Walker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 3 | 3 | 22:10 |
| 4 | Shayne Gostisbehere | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.30 | 1 | 2 | 15:59 |
| 21 | Alexander Nikishin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 3 | 1 | 13:14 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen | 42 | 4 | 38 | .905 | 5.25 | +1.25 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 17 | Dylan Strome | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 |
| 43 | Tom Wilson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.04 | 3 | 0 | 21:24 |
| 21 | Aliaksei Protas | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 0.71 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 |
| 34 | Justin Sourdif | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 8 | 1.13 | 3 | 1 | 18:40 |
| 8 | Alex Ovechkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 |
| 9 | Ryan Leonard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.32 | 1 | 0 | 16:41 |
| 72 | Anthony Beauvillier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 8 | 0.30 | 2 | 1 | 16:18 |
| 53 | Ethen Frank | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 |
| 26 | Nic Dowd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 4 | 2 | 14:13 |
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.06 | 3 | 1 | 08:59 |
| 15 | Sonny Milano | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 08:29 |
| 22 | Hendrix Lapierre | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 0 | 06:13 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 6 | Jakob Chychrun | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 11 | 0.55 | 0 | 1 | 28:02 |
| 74 | John Carlson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 27:57 |
| 38 | Rasmus Sandin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.12 | 2 | 0 | 20:50 |
| 57 | Trevor van Riemsdyk | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.01 | 1 | 2 | 18:46 |
| 47 | Declan Chisholm | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | 10:04 |
| 52 | Dylan McIlrath | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.06 | 3 | 0 | 09:15 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson | 22 | 3 | 19 | .864 | 2.92 | -0.08 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77 Mark Jankowski L | +1.69 | +0.75 | +0.24 | +0.66 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | — | 12:42 |
| 82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | +1.33 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 12:26 |
| 31 Frederik Andersen G | +1.25 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.25 | 61:42 |
| 20 Sebastian Aho C | +1.10 | +0.75 | +0.24 | -0.04 | +0.15 | +0.02 | -0.02 | — | 19:25 |
| 28 William Carrier L | +0.97 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:04 |
| 37 Andrei Svechnikov R | +0.84 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:16 |
| 4 Shayne Gostisbehere D | +0.81 | +0.75 | +0.20 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 15:59 |
| 24 Seth Jarvis C | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.24 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:48 |
| 19 K'Andre Miller D | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 22:43 |
| 26 Sean Walker D | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 22:10 |
| 22 Logan Stankoven C | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.57 | +0.15 | -0.05 | 0.00 | — | 13:37 |
| 21 Alexander Nikishin D | -0.55 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:14 |
| 53 Jackson Blake R | -0.56 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:54 |
| 5 Jalen Chatfield D | -0.63 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 23:09 |
| 48 Jordan Martinook L | -0.67 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:00 |
| 74 Jaccob Slavin D | -0.84 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 22:41 |
| 71 Taylor Hall L | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.66 | -0.45 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 13:41 |
| 11 Jordan Staal C | -0.90 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:19 |
| 27 Nikolaj Ehlers L | -1.33 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:58 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aliaksei Protas C | +3.08 | +1.40 | +0.46 | +1.09 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 19:15 |
| 34 Justin Sourdif R | +2.42 | +0.75 | +0.73 | +0.97 | 0.00 | -0.06 | +0.03 | — | 18:40 |
| 74 John Carlson D | +2.14 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 27:57 |
| 43 Tom Wilson R | +1.88 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:24 |
| 29 Hendrix Lapierre C | +1.87 | +0.75 | +0.44 | +0.57 | +0.15 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 6:13 |
| 6 Jakob Chychrun D | +1.77 | +1.30 | +0.36 | +0.26 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 28:02 |
| 38 Rasmus Sandin D | +1.39 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 20:50 |
| 15 Sonny Milano L | +1.34 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 8:29 |
| 17 Dylan Strome C | +1.21 | +0.75 | +0.27 | +0.13 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.02 | — | 21:48 |
| 53 Ethen Frank C | +0.89 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:47 |
| 22 Brandon Duhaime R | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 8:59 |
| 57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 18:46 |
| 8 Alex Ovechkin L | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.22 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:25 |
| 47 Declan Chisholm D | +0.04 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:04 |
| 26 Nic Dowd C | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.18 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 14:13 |
| 33 Clay Stevenson G | -0.08 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.08 | 61:42 |
| 9 Ryan Leonard R | -0.21 | 0.00 | +0.21 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 16:41 |
| 72 Anthony Beauvillier L | -0.48 | 0.00 | +0.20 | -0.70 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | — | 16:18 |
| 52 Dylan McIlrath D | -0.59 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:15 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.