| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No scoring | |||
| 2nd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| 3rd Period | |||
| 5:24 | Dante Fabbro (4) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.02 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 12:05 | Mathieu Olivier (7) Cole Sillinger (19), Boone Jenner (19) · backhand xG 0.15 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 16:00 | Mathieu Olivier (8)EN Charlie Coyle (25), Zach Werenski (42) · xG 0.99 | 3–0 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| CBJ | NJD | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.24 | Expected goals | 2.32 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 0 |
| 1.78 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.19 |
| 48 | Shot attempts | 52 |
| 37 | Unblocked attempts | 38 |
| 25 | Shots on goal | 24 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1:48 | CBJ | Goalie | Goalie · Merzlikins +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.08 xG, 18 shots on goal |
| 6:40 | NJD | No shift | No shift · Tsyplakov, 18:34 on the bench
No shift from 11:36 of the 2nd to 16:00 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (6:43) before that |
| 12:50 | NJD | No shift | No shift · Glendening, 12:20 on the bench
No shift from 18:46 of the 2nd to 16:00 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:38) before that |
| 13:10 | NJD | No shift | No shift · Lammikko, 13:04 on the bench
No shift from 17:06 of the 2nd to 16:00 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:38) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 19 | Adam Fantilli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 1 | 17:56 |
| 27 | Mason Marchment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
| 3 | Charlie Coyle | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.31 | 3 | 0 | 16:35 |
| 23 | Sean Monahan | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 0.10 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 |
| 22 | Boone Jenner | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 15:30 |
| 21 | Isac Lundeström | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| 4 | Cole Sillinger | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.05 | 2 | 1 | 14:14 |
| 24 | Mathieu Olivier | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1.16 | 3 | 0 | 14:09 |
| 58 | Danton Heinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 |
| 10 | Dmitri Voronkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.08 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 |
| 91 | Kent Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
| 18 | Miles Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 3 | 1 | 10:42 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 78 | Damon Severson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 24:38 |
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 1 | 23:11 |
| 9 | Ivan Provorov | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 22:21 |
| 5 | Denton Mateychuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 |
| 44 | Erik Gudbranson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 17:54 |
| 15 | Dante Fabbro | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 14:17 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins | 24 | 0 | 24 | 1.000 | 2.32 | +2.32 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 1 | 24:10 |
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 9 | 0.86 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 11 | 0.64 | 1 | 0 | 20:06 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.18 | 1 | 1 | 18:06 |
| 12 | Cody Glass | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 |
| 29 | Lenni Hameenaho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 14:15 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 0 | 13:07 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 08:04 |
| 72 | Maxim Tsyplakov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 1 | 07:52 |
| 83 | Juho Lammikko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 07:13 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 8 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 23:27 |
| 22 | Brett Pesce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 19:59 |
| 71 | Simon Nemec | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | 18:30 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 18:15 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 17:41 |
| 8 | Johnathan Kovacevic | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 17:15 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | 25 | 2 | 23 | .920 | 2.25 | +0.25 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mathieu Olivier R | +2.65 | +1.50 | +0.76 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 14:09 |
| 90 Elvis Merzlikins G | +2.32 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +2.32 | 59:55 |
| 15 Dante Fabbro D | +1.37 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 14:17 |
| 38 Boone Jenner C | +1.23 | +0.55 | +0.15 | +0.48 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.07 | — | 15:30 |
| 8 Zach Werenski D | +1.20 | +0.55 | +0.30 | +0.47 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 23:11 |
| 3 Charlie Coyle C | +1.13 | +0.70 | +0.20 | -0.02 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.04 | — | 16:35 |
| 4 Cole Sillinger C | +1.11 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 14:14 |
| 43 Danton Heinen L | +0.93 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.79 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:54 |
| 78 Damon Severson D | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 24:38 |
| 23 Sean Monahan C | +0.56 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.41 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.10 | — | 15:54 |
| 91 Kent Johnson C | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:58 |
| 10 Dmitri Voronkov L | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 11:10 |
| 5 Denton Mateychuk D | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:57 |
| 19 Adam Fantilli C | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.07 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 17:56 |
| 11 Miles Wood L | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.15 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:42 |
| 44 Erik Gudbranson D | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:54 |
| 9 Ivan Provorov D | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 22:21 |
| 17 Mason Marchment L | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:43 |
| 21 Isac Lundeström C | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.56 | +0.15 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:02 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jacob Markstrom G | +0.40 | 0.00 | — | — | +0.15 | — | — | +0.25 | 58:42 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:06 |
| 12 Cody Glass C | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.43 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | — | 14:48 |
| 42 Maxim Tsyplakov R | +0.27 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 7:52 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 24:10 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:41 |
| 8 Johnathan Kovacevic D | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 17:15 |
| 83 Juho Lammikko C | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:13 |
| 14 Luke Glendening C | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:04 |
| 22 Brett Pesce D | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | — | 19:59 |
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | -0.32 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:15 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 13:07 |
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | 12:17 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | -0.37 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.39 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:06 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | -0.43 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:52 |
| 17 Simon Nemec D | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 18:30 |
| 29 Lenni Hameenaho R | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.63 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:15 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | -0.63 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.84 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 23:27 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | -0.68 | 0.00 | +0.56 | -1.13 | -0.15 | +0.04 | 0.00 | — | 21:21 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.