Buffalo SabresBUF 2–1 Final New Jersey DevilsNJD

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	1	1	2	30
New Jersey DevilsNJD	0	0	1	1	28

Playoff odds, %	Change
BUF	+3.9
NJD	-0.6
OTT	-0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 23, 2026 9:51 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
8:10	BUF	Tage Thompson (31) Peyton Krebs (19), Bowen Byram (19) · wrist xG 0.16	1–0 ▶
3rd Period
10:36	BUF	Peyton Krebs (8) Tage Thompson (30) · wrist xG 0.16	2–0 ▶
17:30	NJD	Timo Meier (15) Jack Hughes (25), Jesper Bratt (29) · wrist xG 0.74	2–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 35%Deserve to win65% NJD

BUF		NJD
3.22	Expected goals	4.19
2	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.90	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.81
59	Shot attempts	57
46	Unblocked attempts	46
30	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:05	NJD	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NJD takes the lead, 61–39% BUF had led since 3:13 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
2nd Period
17:21	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Luukkonen +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.05 xG, 22 shots on goal
3rd Period
8:45	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% NJD had led since 13:05 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
15:50	BUF	No shift	No shift · Metsa, 11:38 on the bench No shift after 3:43 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (8:16) before that
16:26	NJD	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Allen, down 2–0 With 3:34 left; NJD scored at 17:30 of the 3rd (2–1)
17:30	NJD	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NJD takes the lead, 64–36% BUF had led since 8:45 of the 3rd, by as much as 62%
17:48	NJD	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Allen, down 2–1 With 2:12 left
18:50	NJD	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.91–0.35 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:50 to 18:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–1

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NJD shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	+1	5	0.05	2	1	19:50
72	Tage Thompson	1	1	2	+2	6	0.36	1	0	19:19
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	0	5	0.40	0	1	17:34
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	+1	4	0.23	1	0	15:45
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	0	4	0.12	0	0	15:28
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	0	6	0.63	1	0	14:58
9	Josh Norris	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	0	14:33
19	Peyton Krebs	1	1	2	+2	2	0.18	0	0	13:41
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	0	6	0.72	1	1	13:28
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	3	0	12:04
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	3	0	11:49
44	Josh Dunne	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	0	0	11:15
Defense
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	0	5	0.15	5	1	24:15
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	0	0	5	0.04	2	2	24:07
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	2	23:08
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	1	1	21:51
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	1	14:43
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	08:16

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	1	27	.964	4.19	+3.19

New Jersey Devils

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Jack Hughes	0	1	1	0	5	0.12	0	0	21:25
13	Nico Hischier	0	0	0	+1	4	0.31	1	1	21:11
28	Timo Meier	1	0	1	+1	8	1.46	4	0	19:47
63	Jesper Bratt	0	1	1	0	5	0.54	2	0	18:49
16	Connor Brown	0	0	0	0	2	0.48	1	0	18:38
91	Dawson Mercer	0	0	0	0	5	0.40	0	1	18:15
81	Arseny Gritsyuk	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	0	1	14:25
29	Lenni Hameenaho	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	2	1	12:31
12	Cody Glass	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	0	11:53
72	Nick Bjugstad	0	0	0	0	5	0.39	0	0	10:35
72	Maxim Tsyplakov	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	0	09:20
47	Paul Cotter	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	3	0	07:45
Defense
71	Simon Nemec	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	1	1	22:23
5	Brenden Dillon	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	1	20:15
7	Dougie Hamilton	0	0	0	0	7	0.08	2	3	20:02
22	Brett Pesce	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	1	18:50
71	Jonas Siegenthaler	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	15:59
8	Johnathan Kovacevic	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	2	15:13

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jake Allen	30	2	28	.933	3.22	+1.22

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	+3.19	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+3.19	60:00
72 Tage Thompson C	+1.89	+1.45	+0.23	+0.27	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	—	19:19
19 Peyton Krebs C	+1.83	+1.45	+0.12	+0.29	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	13:41
91 Josh Doan R	+1.36	0.00	+0.41	+0.78	+0.15	-0.02	+0.04	—	14:58
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.27	0.00	+0.10	+1.18	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	24:15
4 Bowen Byram D	+1.13	+0.55	+0.01	+0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	23:08
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+1.10	0.00	+0.03	+0.87	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	24:07
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.07	0.00	+0.15	+0.92	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:45
17 Jason Zucker L	+1.03	0.00	+0.47	+0.41	+0.15	-0.01	+0.01	—	13:28
9 Josh Norris C	+0.83	0.00	+0.09	+0.76	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	14:33
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.80	0.00	+0.08	+0.73	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:28
8 Michael Kesselring D	+0.77	0.00	+0.02	+0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:43
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.73	0.00	+0.26	+0.43	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	17:34
25 Owen Power D	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.28	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	21:51
44 Josh Dunne C	+0.07	0.00	+0.05	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:15
48 Tyson Kozak C	+0.06	0.00	+0.02	+0.04	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	12:04
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:49
89 Alex Tuch R	-0.13	0.00	+0.04	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:50
73 Zach Metsa D	-0.49	0.00	+0.03	-0.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:16

New Jersey Devils

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
28 Timo Meier R	+1.44	+0.75	+0.95	-0.19	0.00	-0.01	-0.06	—	19:47
34 Jake Allen G	+1.22	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.22	56:44
91 Dawson Mercer C	+0.56	0.00	+0.26	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:15
17 Simon Nemec D	+0.29	0.00	+0.04	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	22:23
29 Lenni Hameenaho R	+0.18	0.00	+0.12	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:31
63 Jesper Bratt L	+0.17	+0.55	+0.35	-0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:49
13 Nico Hischier C	+0.15	0.00	+0.20	+0.07	-0.15	-0.02	+0.05	—	21:11
72 Nick Bjugstad C	-0.01	0.00	+0.25	-0.40	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	10:35
12 Cody Glass C	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.12	0.00	+0.09	0.00	—	11:53
16 Connor Brown R	-0.05	0.00	+0.31	-0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:38
7 Dougie Hamilton D	-0.10	0.00	+0.05	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	20:02
47 Paul Cotter L	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	-0.16	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	7:45
5 Brenden Dillon D	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:15
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R	-0.38	0.00	+0.05	-0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	14:25
86 Jack Hughes C	-0.40	+0.70	+0.08	-1.06	0.00	-0.02	-0.10	—	21:25
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D	-0.67	0.00	+0.02	-0.55	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	15:59
22 Brett Pesce D	-0.91	0.00	0.00	-0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	18:50
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D	-1.19	0.00	0.00	-1.12	-0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	15:13
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R	-1.25	0.00	+0.02	-1.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:20

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.