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Edmonton OilersEDM 4–5 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 112 4 24
San Jose SharksSJS 302 5 33
Playoff odds, % Change
EDM -7.4
SJS +6.0
LAK +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 3:48 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:34 SJS Macklin Celebrini (29) Will Smith (23) · wrist xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
11:07 SJS Michael Misa (3)PP Tyler Toffoli (22) · wrist xG 0.47 0–2 ▶
14:51 EDM Leon Draisaitl (31)PP Connor McDavid (66), Evan Bouchard (51) · wrist xG 0.16 1–2 ▶
17:05 SJS Barclay Goodrow (5) Zack Ostapchuk (2), John Klingberg (11) · wrist xG 0.25 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
15:49 EDM Evan Bouchard (17) Connor McDavid (67), Mattias Ekholm (25) · wrist xG 0.13 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:54 EDM Trent Frederic (3) Matt Savoie (14) · wrist xG 0.15 3–3 ▶
5:30 SJS Alexander Wennberg (11) Philipp Kurashev (11), Mario Ferraro (10) · wrist xG 0.19 3–4 ▶
7:13 EDM Jake Walman (8) Connor McDavid (68), Evan Bouchard (52) · slap xG 0.07 4–4 ▶
9:27 SJS Shakir Mukhamadullin (4) William Eklund (25), Michael Misa (8) · slap xG 0.04 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 28%Deserve to win72% SJS
EDMSJS
2.57Expected goals3.93
4Goals (no shootout)5
1.27Expected goals, 5 on 52.73
53Shot attempts58
38Unblocked attempts48
24Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:10 SJS xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.66–0.32
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:00 to 12:00 of the 1st; goals 2–0

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Zack Ostapchuk: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 0:12) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:52) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 4:40) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:41) William Eklund: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:18) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:43) Will Smith: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:44) Will Smith: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:07) John Klingberg: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:11) Kiefer Sherwood: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:12) Adam Henrique: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:35) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:56) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:23) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:57) Sam Dickinson: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:13) Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:20) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 11:02) Michael Misa: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 11:04) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:22) Evan Bouchard: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:39) Zach Hyman: slap, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:40) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:06) Matt Savoie: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:39) Kiefer Sherwood: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 15:16) John Klingberg: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:16) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:18) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:21) Trent Frederic: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:00) Zach Hyman: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:12) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:20) Jack Roslovic: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:21) Collin Graf: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:38) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:47) Darnell Nurse: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:05) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:30) Connor McDavid: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:59) Will Smith: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:14) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:02) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:12) Will Smith: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:48) Matt Savoie: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:24) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:55) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:07) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:35) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:20) Collin Graf: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:22) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:32) Connor McDavid: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:41) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:58) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 16:47) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 17:01) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:20) Michael Misa: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:21) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:42) Will Smith: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:45) Spencer Stastney: backhand, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:05) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:25) Pavol Regenda: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:29) Zach Hyman: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:54) Zach Hyman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:01) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:02) Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:45) Mario Ferraro: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:49) Sam Dickinson: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:00) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:07) Darnell Nurse: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:25) Will Smith: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:10) Kiefer Sherwood: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:11) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:22) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:34) Vincent Desharnais: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:53) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:09) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:13) Evan Bouchard: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:21) Leon Draisaitl: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:50) Connor McDavid: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:55) Evan Bouchard: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:58) Macklin Celebrini: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:34) Michael Misa: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.47 (P1 11:07) Leon Draisaitl: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:51) Barclay Goodrow: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 17:05) Evan Bouchard: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:49) Trent Frederic: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:54) Alexander Wennberg: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 5:30) Jake Walman: GOAL, slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:13) Shakir Mukhamadullin: GOAL, slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:27)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Leon Draisaitl 101 -1 90.84 0021:47
97 Connor McDavid 033 -1 40.16 4021:34
18 Zach Hyman 000 -1 50.18 0020:57
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 -1 50.26 1117:37
96 Jack Roslovic 000 0 40.18 0114:44
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 0 00.00 5114:10
22 Matt Savoie 011 0 40.10 0013:34
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 0 20.10 3013:32
10 Trent Frederic 101 +1 30.16 5112:38
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 10.04 0011:32
26 Andrew Mangiapane 000 0 00.00 1110:20
20 Curtis Lazar 000 0 20.00 4109:09
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 123 -1 50.36 0123:24
25 Darnell Nurse 000 0 50.13 1221:37
96 Jake Walman 101 0 20.07 0020:51
14 Mattias Ekholm 011 -1 00.00 0018:45
24 Spencer Stastney 000 0 10.00 0016:21
49 Ty Emberson 000 0 10.00 0115:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Ingram 33528 .848 3.93 -1.07

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 101 0 80.63 1121:17
44 Kiefer Sherwood 000 +1 100.70 2019:00
2 Will Smith 011 0 60.33 0018:43
21 Alexander Wennberg 101 0 10.19 0218:30
51 Collin Graf 000 -1 20.12 1216:59
27 William Eklund 011 +1 20.04 0014:31
96 Philipp Kurashev 011 0 10.00 1013:32
77 Michael Misa 112 +1 30.87 0012:16
23 Barclay Goodrow 101 0 10.25 3111:49
73 Tyler Toffoli 011 +1 30.27 1011:07
84 Pavol Regenda 000 0 10.04 1110:48
63 Zack Ostapchuk 011 0 20.07 2110:19
Defense
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 -1 60.15 2122:17
38 Mario Ferraro 011 +2 10.02 1221:11
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 0 30.01 3120:01
3 John Klingberg 011 -1 30.05 1019:15
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 101 +2 30.08 0218:27
6 Sam Dickinson 000 0 20.10 3115:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 24420 .833 2.57 -1.43

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
2 Evan Bouchard D +2.20 +1.85 +0.24 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:24
97 Connor McDavid C +1.57 +2.10 +0.10 -0.61 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 21:34
29 Leon Draisaitl C +1.21 +0.75 +0.55 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:47
10 Trent Frederic C +0.90 +0.75 +0.10 -0.02 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:38
22 Matt Savoie C +0.73 +0.70 +0.07 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:34
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.59 +0.55 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:45
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.15 0.00 +0.12 +0.05 0.00 -0.05 +0.03 — 14:44
18 Zach Hyman L -0.31 0.00 +0.12 -0.56 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:57
19 Adam Henrique C -0.37 0.00 +0.02 -0.34 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 11:32
49 Ty Emberson D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:45
88 Andrew Mangiapane L -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:20
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.28 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:21
20 Curtis Lazar C -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 +0.08 +0.05 — 9:09
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -0.62 0.00 +0.17 -0.82 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 17:37
92 Vasily Podkolzin R -0.79 0.00 0.00 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:10
96 Jake Walman D -0.79 +0.75 +0.04 -1.55 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:51
42 Kasperi Kapanen R -0.92 0.00 +0.06 -0.82 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 13:32
39 Connor Ingram G -0.92 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -1.07 58:15
25 Darnell Nurse D -1.14 0.00 +0.08 -1.41 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 21:37

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Macklin Celebrini C +2.89 +0.75 +0.41 +1.47 +0.15 +0.04 +0.07 — 21:17
2 Will Smith C +2.28 +0.70 +0.22 +1.43 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 18:43
44 Kiefer Sherwood L +2.11 0.00 +0.46 +1.82 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:00
77 Michael Misa C +2.08 +1.30 +0.56 +0.26 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 12:16
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D +1.80 +0.75 +0.05 +0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:27
38 Mario Ferraro D +1.62 +0.55 +0.01 +0.96 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:11
3 John Klingberg D +1.57 +0.55 +0.03 +1.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:15
23 Barclay Goodrow C +1.28 +0.75 +0.16 +0.33 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:49
72 William Eklund L +1.13 +0.70 +0.03 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:31
9 Dmitry Orlov D +1.11 0.00 +0.10 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:17
63 Zack Ostapchuk C +1.09 +0.70 +0.05 +0.34 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 10:19
73 Tyler Toffoli C +1.04 +0.70 +0.18 +0.24 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 11:07
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.77 +0.75 +0.12 -0.30 0.00 +0.07 +0.12 — 18:30
84 Pavol Regenda L +0.36 0.00 +0.03 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 10:48
96 Philipp Kurashev C +0.28 +0.70 0.00 -0.26 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 13:32
6 Sam Dickinson D -0.11 0.00 +0.07 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:17
5 Vincent Desharnais D -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:01
51 Collin Graf R -0.46 0.00 +0.08 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:59
30 Yaroslav Askarov G -1.43 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.43 59:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.