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Philadelphia FlyersPHI 3–2 Final/SO Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Monday, March 2, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 10102 3 25
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 10101 2 31
Playoff odds, % Change
PHI +3.0
TOR -0.4
BOS -0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 2, 2026 6:43 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
15:22 TOR Dakota Joshua (7) Matias Maccelli (16) · wrist xG 0.04 0–1 ▶
18:38 PHI Christian Dvorak (13)PP Noah Cates (19), Denver Barkey (8) · wrist xG 0.31 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
14:42 PHI Noah Cates (12) Bobby Brink (13) · wrist xG 0.10 2–1 ▶
17:30 TOR William Nylander (20)PP John Tavares (28), Matthew Knies (34) · snap xG 0.14 2–2 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
TOR William Nylander vs Dan Vladar Goal
PHI Matvei Michkov vs Anthony Stolarz Goal
TOR Auston Matthews vs Dan Vladar Saved
PHI Trevor Zegras vs Anthony Stolarz Goal
TOR Max Domi vs Dan Vladar Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 53%Deserve to win47% TOR
PHITOR
2.78Expected goals2.65
2Goals (no shootout)2
0.94Expected goals, 5 on 51.26
53Shot attempts58
35Unblocked attempts44
25Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
8:30 PHI No shift No shift · Seeler, 19:37 on the bench
No shift after 16:01 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (6:01) before that

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Simon Benoit: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:23) Cam York: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:22) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:28) Bobby Brink: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:00) Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:11) Matvei Michkov: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:39) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:48) Denver Barkey: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:43) Cam York: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:05) Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:24) Max Domi: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:08) Travis Sanheim: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:39) Simon Benoit: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:14) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:14) Garnet Hathaway: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:52) Carl Grundstrom: tip-in, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:05) Nick Seeler: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:35) Owen Tippett: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:14) Bobby Brink: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:27) Scott Laughton: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:07) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:35) Matthew Knies: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 14:58) Morgan Rielly: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:04) Christian Dvorak: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:08) Auston Matthews: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:35) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:02) Christian Dvorak: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.48 (P1 18:36) Garnet Hathaway: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:06) Simon Benoit: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:50) William Nylander: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:22) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:36) Max Domi: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:49) Jake McCabe: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:13) Matias Maccelli: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:44) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:23) Scott Laughton: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:07) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:23) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:52) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:22) Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:13) Auston Matthews: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:49) Steven Lorentz: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:59) Rasmus Ristolainen: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:41) Max Domi: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:52) Auston Matthews: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:40) Bobby Brink: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:44) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:12) Scott Laughton: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:01) Nicolas Deslauriers: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:43) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:38) William Nylander: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:51) Bobby McMann: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:44) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:43) Noah Cates: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 2:09) Rasmus Ristolainen: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:47) Travis Sanheim: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:04) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:58) Max Domi: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:00) William Nylander: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:07) Owen Tippett: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:58) Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:33) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 14:35) William Nylander: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:35) John Tavares: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:51) Auston Matthews: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:23) Auston Matthews: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:24) Simon Benoit: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:35) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 125 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:23) Auston Matthews: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 0:35) Auston Matthews: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 0:37) William Nylander: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:36) Auston Matthews: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.34 (OT 2:53) Travis Sanheim: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 3:15) Auston Matthews: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 4:18) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 4:27) Dakota Joshua: GOAL, wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:22) Christian Dvorak: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 18:38) Noah Cates: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:42) William Nylander: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Christian Dvorak 101 0 30.85 1223:34
74 Owen Tippett 000 0 60.11 0121:51
46 Trevor Zegras 000 0 30.14 0021:43
10 Bobby Brink 011 +1 60.17 2020:47
27 Noah Cates 112 +1 30.23 0219:57
39 Matvei Michkov 000 +1 40.30 1018:30
14 Sean Couturier 000 -1 10.00 0016:49
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 0 20.04 1109:42
86 Denver Barkey 011 -1 10.15 0109:17
17 Nikita Grebenkin 000 -1 20.00 0108:44
91 Carl Grundstrom 000 0 20.01 2008:31
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 10.05 4007:34
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 000 0 30.16 2129:11
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 +1 60.26 2227:13
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 +1 40.22 0124:30
8 Cam York 000 0 30.08 0223:01
36 Emil Andrae 000 -1 10.00 4012:12
24 Nick Seeler 000 -1 20.01 0006:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dan Vladar 31229 .935 2.65 +0.65

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
34 Auston Matthews 000 -1 111.03 3326:06
88 William Nylander 101 -1 70.36 0025:39
91 John Tavares 011 0 10.04 1019:15
89 Matthew Knies 011 0 20.12 5018:18
74 Bobby McMann 000 -1 20.02 2017:42
11 Max Domi 000 0 50.06 0114:36
10 Nicolas Roy 000 +1 10.08 0313:36
21 Scott Laughton 000 0 30.19 1011:51
81 Dakota Joshua 101 +1 20.09 3111:21
63 Matias Maccelli 011 +1 40.13 0011:13
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 20.19 2011:05
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 00.00 2008:23
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 10.02 1324:24
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 +1 50.07 0024:00
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -1 40.09 0223:54
44 Simon Benoit 000 0 40.14 2117:51
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -1 20.02 4017:29
51 Philippe Myers 000 +1 20.00 0212:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 25223 .920 2.78 +0.78

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Noah Cates L +1.83 +1.45 +0.15 +0.18 0.00 -0.03 +0.08 — 19:56
22 Christian Dvorak C +1.31 +0.75 +0.55 -0.09 0.00 -0.02 +0.12 — 23:34
10 Bobby Brink R +1.28 +0.70 +0.11 +0.34 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:47
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D +0.86 0.00 +0.17 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 27:14
80 Dan Vladar G +0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.65 65:00
39 Matvei Michkov R +0.53 0.00 +0.20 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:30
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.15 0.00 +0.10 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 29:11
46 Trevor Zegras C +0.15 0.00 +0.09 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:43
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L +0.13 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:34
52 Denver Barkey C +0.11 +0.55 +0.10 -0.44 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 9:17
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.10 0.00 +0.14 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:30
19 Garnet Hathaway R +0.09 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 9:42
74 Owen Tippett R -0.03 0.00 +0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 21:51
91 Carl Grundstrom R -0.24 0.00 +0.01 -0.22 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 8:31
36 Emil Andrae D -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:12
24 Nick Seeler D -0.36 0.00 +0.01 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 6:01
29 Nikita Grebenkin R -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:44
8 Cam York D -0.51 0.00 +0.05 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:01
14 Sean Couturier C -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.59 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 16:49

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Dakota Joshua C +1.30 +0.75 +0.06 +0.30 +0.15 +0.01 +0.03 — 11:21
63 Matias Maccelli L +1.12 +0.70 +0.08 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:13
91 John Tavares C +0.95 +0.70 +0.03 +0.18 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 19:15
88 William Nylander R +0.79 +0.75 +0.24 -0.32 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 25:39
41 Anthony Stolarz G +0.78 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.78 65:00
51 Philippe Myers D +0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:26
23 Matthew Knies L +0.71 +0.55 +0.08 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:18
34 Auston Matthews C +0.46 0.00 +0.67 -0.40 0.00 +0.01 +0.17 — 26:06
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D +0.45 0.00 +0.05 +0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:00
24 Scott Laughton C +0.41 0.00 +0.12 +0.25 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 11:51
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.39 0.00 +0.13 +0.25 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:05
55 Nicolas Roy C +0.36 0.00 +0.05 +0.32 -0.15 -0.01 +0.15 — 13:36
53 Easton Cowan R +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.40 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:23
22 Jake McCabe D +0.17 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 24:24
11 Max Domi C +0.13 0.00 +0.04 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:36
2 Simon Benoit D +0.08 0.00 +0.09 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:51
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.11 0.00 +0.06 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 23:54
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.31 0.00 +0.01 -0.17 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:29
74 Bobby McMann C -0.40 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:42

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.