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Philadelphia FlyersPHI 4–3 Final/SO Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 12001 4 16
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 12000 3 23
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -4.8
PHI +3.8
CBJ +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 4:03 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:00 PIT Tommy Novak (13)PP Justin Brazeau (14), Ville Koivunen (4) · wrist xG 0.09 0–1 ▶
3:54 PHI Owen Tippett (20) Trevor Zegras (30), Cam York (19) · wrist xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:38 PIT Rickard Rakell (12) Egor Chinakhov (8), Bryan Rust (25) · wrist xG 0.04 1–2 ▶
4:46 PHI Alex Bump (1) Nikita Grebenkin (9) · wrist xG 0.14 2–2 ▶
5:45 PIT Erik Karlsson (6) Egor Chinakhov (9), Rickard Rakell (15) · slap xG 0.03 2–3 ▶
10:03 PHI Denver Barkey (3) Matvei Michkov (17), Noah Cates (20) · backhand xG 0.20 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
PIT Anthony Mantha vs Dan Vladar Saved
PHI Matvei Michkov vs Stuart Skinner Saved
PIT Rickard Rakell vs Dan Vladar Saved
PHI Trevor Zegras vs Stuart Skinner Goal
PIT Egor Chinakhov vs Dan Vladar Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PHI 38%Deserve to win62% PIT
PHIPIT
2.19Expected goals2.87
3Goals (no shootout)3
1.47Expected goals, 5 on 51.58
40Shot attempts64
33Unblocked attempts46
16Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:45 PHI Goalie Goalie · Vladar −2.3 goals saved
3 goals on 0.75 xG, 10 shots on goal
14:42 PHI Deserve to win Deserve to win · PHI takes the lead, 60–40%
PIT had led since 3:24 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
Overtime
3:40 PIT Deserve to win Deserve to win · PIT takes the lead, 61–39%
PHI had led since 14:42 of the 2nd, by as much as 60%

Shot map

PHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Noel Acciari: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:24) Connor Dewar: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:35) Avery Hayes: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:24) Egor Chinakhov: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:12) Bryan Rust: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:25) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:20) Noel Acciari: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:52) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:38) Owen Tippett: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:40) Samuel Girard: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:37) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 11:54) Travis Sanheim: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:57) Matvei Michkov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:21) Noel Acciari: wrist, 159 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:23) Egor Chinakhov: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:20) Tommy Novak: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:51) Matvei Michkov: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:06) Ben Kindel: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:26) Ben Kindel: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 0:39) Sean Couturier: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:40) Travis Sanheim: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:09) Noah Juulsen: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:46) Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:05) Ryan Shea: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:16) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:38) Christian Dvorak: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 8:16) Emil Andrae: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:22) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:36) Kris Letang: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:29) Connor Dewar: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:31) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:37) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:49) Connor Dewar: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:14) Travis Sanheim: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:58) Trevor Zegras: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:05) Denver Barkey: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:48) Alex Bump: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:14) Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:42) Connor Dewar: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 15:01) Parker Wotherspoon: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:41) Trevor Zegras: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:28) Garnet Hathaway: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:38) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:15) Connor Clifton: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:40) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:12) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 3:51) Tommy Novak: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:35) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:45) Alex Bump: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:15) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:47) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:53) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:58) Connor Clifton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:59) Alex Bump: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:57) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:03) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:23) Denver Barkey: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:36) Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:15) Ben Kindel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:30) Kris Letang: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:22) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:18) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:18) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:33) Kris Letang: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:55) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.26 (OT 1:04) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 1:05) Kris Letang: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:40) Rickard Rakell: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:56) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 2:44) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 3:15) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 3:39) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 3:40) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 3:54) Tommy Novak: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 3:00) Owen Tippett: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 3:54) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:38) Alex Bump: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:46) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:45) Denver Barkey: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 10:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Christian Dvorak 000 +1 20.32 1020:47
27 Noah Cates 011 +1 00.00 2019:19
46 Trevor Zegras 011 0 50.27 1018:15
14 Sean Couturier 000 -1 10.00 0016:55
39 Matvei Michkov 011 +1 40.09 0016:46
74 Owen Tippett 101 0 20.22 4116:25
20 Alex Bump 101 +1 70.23 1116:07
86 Denver Barkey 101 +1 30.48 1014:41
41 Luke Glendening 000 -1 00.00 2211:44
17 Nikita Grebenkin 011 +1 00.00 1010:30
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 -1 10.07 4210:19
91 Carl Grundstrom 000 0 20.04 6009:51
Defense
8 Cam York 011 +2 20.00 1130:48
6 Travis Sanheim 000 -1 30.10 0428:26
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 -1 00.00 0023:26
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 +2 50.35 1222:18
47 Noah Juulsen 000 0 20.01 0111:27
36 Emil Andrae 000 0 10.01 1107:36
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dan Vladar 23320 .870 2.87 -0.13

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 011 +1 30.13 1024:19
67 Rickard Rakell 112 +2 90.56 0122:06
59 Egor Chinakhov 022 +1 60.37 1021:02
39 Anthony Mantha 000 0 10.00 2018:51
18 Tommy Novak 101 0 50.30 0117:10
16 Justin Brazeau 011 0 40.19 2015:22
81 Ben Kindel 000 -3 40.28 0015:16
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 20.00 1115:02
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 60.59 2014:02
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 50.09 0013:27
41 Ville Koivunen 011 -2 00.00 0012:35
85 Avery Hayes 000 -2 10.02 1107:48
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 101 +1 50.10 1026:12
58 Kris Letang 000 -1 60.13 1023:55
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 +1 20.03 3117:48
49 Samuel Girard 000 -1 20.01 0017:38
6 Ryan Shea 000 -1 10.02 1015:32
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 20.06 3015:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 16313 .813 2.19 -0.81

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
52 Denver Barkey C +1.23 +0.75 +0.31 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:41
20 Alex Bump L +1.20 +0.75 +0.15 +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:07
39 Matvei Michkov R +0.97 +0.70 +0.06 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:46
74 Owen Tippett R +0.87 +0.75 +0.14 -0.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 16:25
29 Nikita Grebenkin R +0.83 +0.70 0.00 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:30
46 Trevor Zegras C +0.78 +0.70 +0.18 -0.04 0.00 -0.07 +0.02 — 18:15
27 Noah Cates L +0.76 +0.55 0.00 +0.18 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 19:19
8 Cam York D +0.57 +0.55 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 30:48
36 Emil Andrae D +0.52 0.00 +0.01 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:36
47 Noah Juulsen D +0.40 0.00 +0.01 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:27
22 Christian Dvorak C +0.29 0.00 +0.21 +0.20 -0.15 +0.02 +0.02 — 20:47
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.25 0.00 +0.23 +0.07 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 22:18
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.05 0.00 +0.07 -0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 28:26
91 Carl Grundstrom R -0.14 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:51
19 Garnet Hathaway R -0.21 0.00 +0.05 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 10:19
41 Luke Glendening C -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 +0.04 +0.10 — 11:44
80 Dan Vladar G -0.28 0.00 — — -0.15 — — -0.13 65:00
14 Sean Couturier C -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.38 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 16:55
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 23:26

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
67 Rickard Rakell R +2.83 +1.30 +0.36 +0.83 +0.30 -0.01 +0.05 — 22:06
59 Egor Chinakhov R +2.44 +1.40 +0.24 +0.65 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:02
65 Erik Karlsson D +1.38 +0.75 +0.07 +0.47 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 26:12
17 Bryan Rust R +1.16 +0.55 +0.09 +0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:19
18 Tommy Novak C +1.08 +0.75 +0.19 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:10
16 Justin Brazeau R +1.04 +0.70 +0.12 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:22
19 Connor Dewar C +0.70 0.00 +0.39 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:02
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.39 0.00 +0.02 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:48
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 15:02
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 18:51
55 Noel Acciari C +0.05 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 13:27
5 Ryan Shea D 0.00 0.00 +0.01 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 15:32
75 Connor Clifton D -0.07 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:04
58 Kris Letang D -0.43 0.00 +0.08 -0.33 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 23:55
49 Samuel Girard D -0.44 0.00 +0.01 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:38
41 Ville Koivunen R -0.46 +0.55 0.00 -1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:35
85 Avery Hayes R -0.71 0.00 +0.01 -0.93 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 7:48
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.81 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.81 65:00
81 Ben Kindel C -1.05 0.00 +0.18 -1.18 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 15:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.