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Colorado AvalancheCOL 1–3 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 001 1 29
Winnipeg JetsWPG 021 3 19
Playoff odds, % Change
WPG +1.9
COL +0.0
SEA -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 14, 2026 3:15 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
2:05 WPG Kyle Connor (30) Mark Scheifele (50) · wrist xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
11:52 WPG Alex Iafallo (11) Mark Scheifele (51), Kyle Connor (44) · wrist xG 0.47 0–2 ▶
3rd Period
18:44 COL Martin Necas (31) Nathan MacKinnon (65), Cale Makar (48) · snap xG 0.10 1–2 ▶
19:18 WPG Cole Perfetti (9)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.59 1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 81%Deserve to win19% WPG
COLWPG
3.26Expected goals2.99
1Goals (no shootout)3
2.31Expected goals, 5 on 51.46
79Shot attempts37
52Unblocked attempts30
29Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
0:26 WPG Goalie Goalie · Hellebuyck +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.05 xG, 17 shots on goal
6:10 COL Shortened bench Shortened bench · 1 forward, 1 defenseman sat
Blankenburg and Bardakov: last shifts between 14:00 and 15:01 of the 2nd
15:50 COL No shift No shift · Brindley, 14:16 on the bench
No shift after 2:45 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (5:26) before that
16:17 COL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Blackwood, down 2–0
With 3:43 left
18:05 COL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Blackwood, down 2–0
With 1:55 left; COL scored at 18:44 of the 3rd (1–2)
18:10 WPG Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Lambert and Koepke: no shift after 6:24 of the 3rd
19:00 COL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Blackwood, down 2–1
With 1:00 left; WPG scored at 19:18 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Cole Koepke: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:22) Josh Morrissey: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:26) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:10) Martin Necas: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:32) Brent Burns: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:18) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:40) Martin Necas: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:15) Cale Makar: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:17) Isak Rosen: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:29) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:20) Cale Makar: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:26) Zakhar Bardakov: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:01) Martin Necas: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:06) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 17:10) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:02) Morgan Barron: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:48) Morgan Barron: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:51) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:34) Josh Manson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:25) Cole Perfetti: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:45) Nicolas Roy: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:55) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:01) Brock Nelson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:24) Cale Makar: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:30) Martin Necas: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:33) Jack Drury: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:52) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:56) Cole Koepke: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 12:32) Gustav Nyquist: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:22) Joel Kiviranta: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:28) Cale Makar: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:30) Brock Nelson: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:52) Cale Makar: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:59) Devon Toews: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:23) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:39) Haydn Fleury: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:10) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:27) Mark Scheifele: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:52) Sam Malinski: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:29) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:44) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:49) Brock Nelson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:50) Jack Drury: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:09) Brock Nelson: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 0:25) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:26) Cale Makar: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:32) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:18) Brett Kulak: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:00) Josh Manson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:30) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:40) Isak Rosen: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:18) Brent Burns: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:04) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:42) Devon Toews: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:40) Devon Toews: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:17) Martin Necas: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 10:00) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:09) Devon Toews: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:53) Alex Iafallo: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:05) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:49) Isak Rosen: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:56) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 12:12) Parker Kelly: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:14) Cale Makar: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:22) Elias Salomonsson: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:40) Morgan Barron: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:54) Gustav Nyquist: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:01) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:22) Josh Morrissey: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:37) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:53) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:03) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:05) Cale Makar: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:15) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:22) Brock Nelson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:36) Nazem Kadri: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:36) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 51 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:46) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.75 (P3 19:51) Kyle Connor: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:05) Alex Iafallo: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.47 (P2 11:52) Martin Necas: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:44) Cole Perfetti: GOAL, wrist, 127 ft, xG 0.59 (P3 19:18)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 101 -1 90.38 0026:48
29 Nathan MacKinnon 011 -1 50.15 0025:26
91 Nazem Kadri 000 -1 60.52 1024:20
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 100.51 2123:03
11 Brock Nelson 000 0 60.55 0022:35
18 Jack Drury 000 0 30.22 0015:39
10 Nicolas Roy 000 0 10.09 1015:22
17 Parker Kelly 000 -1 40.01 4013:20
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 40.22 0012:13
54 Gavin Brindley 000 -1 00.00 0105:26
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 -1 10.01 1003:48
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 -1 130.39 1125:21
7 Devon Toews 000 -1 50.10 1020:42
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 20.00 4216:15
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 30.00 0015:54
42 Josh Manson 000 -1 30.05 1014:18
84 Brent Burns 000 -1 40.05 0014:06
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 00.00 1006:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 18216 .889 1.50 -0.50

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Adam Lowry 000 +1 00.00 1220:14
55 Mark Scheifele 022 +1 40.27 1219:53
91 Cole Perfetti 101 +1 41.38 0019:12
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 0 00.00 0318:52
81 Kyle Connor 112 +1 20.19 1118:49
9 Alex Iafallo 101 +3 30.57 0117:56
36 Morgan Barron 000 -1 30.08 5113:19
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 0 30.08 0012:53
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 00.00 0112:01
27 Isak Rosen 000 0 30.06 1209:27
93 Brad Lambert 000 0 20.00 0007:35
45 Cole Koepke 000 0 20.22 3007:25
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 +2 30.02 0225:02
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 +2 20.06 3224:36
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 0 30.02 1320:53
54 Dylan Samberg 000 -1 20.02 0220:33
24 Haydn Fleury 000 0 10.01 4115:11
78 Jacob Bryson 000 +1 00.00 0112:28
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 29128 .966 3.26 +2.26

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 Martin Necas C +1.78 +0.75 +0.24 +0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 26:48
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +1.51 +0.70 +0.10 +0.75 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 — 25:26
8 Cale Makar D +1.25 +0.55 +0.26 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 25:21
27 Brett Kulak D +1.14 0.00 0.00 +1.19 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 15:54
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.86 0.00 +0.33 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:03
70 Sam Malinski D +0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:15
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.74 0.00 +0.14 +0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:13
18 Jack Drury C +0.73 0.00 +0.14 +0.55 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 15:39
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.44 0.00 +0.34 +0.11 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 24:20
7 Devon Toews D +0.43 0.00 +0.07 +0.23 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:42
11 Brock Nelson C +0.36 0.00 +0.36 +0.12 -0.15 +0.05 -0.02 — 22:35
17 Parker Kelly C +0.11 0.00 +0.01 -0.07 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 13:20
10 Nicolas Roy C -0.15 0.00 +0.06 -0.20 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:22
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:43
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G -0.50 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.50 56:41
42 Josh Manson D -0.54 0.00 +0.03 -0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:18
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:48
84 Brent Burns D -0.56 0.00 +0.03 -0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:06
54 Gavin Brindley C -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:26

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +2.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.26 59:41
81 Kyle Connor L +1.78 +1.30 +0.12 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:49
55 Mark Scheifele C +1.72 +1.40 +0.18 +0.24 -0.15 -0.02 +0.08 — 19:53
9 Alex Iafallo L +1.56 +0.75 +0.37 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:56
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.91 +0.75 +0.90 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:12
45 Cole Koepke L +0.33 0.00 +0.14 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:25
57 Elias Salomonsson D +0.27 0.00 +0.02 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:53
93 Brad Lambert C +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:35
78 Jacob Bryson D +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 12:28
36 Morgan Barron C +0.05 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 13:19
27 Isak Rosen R -0.08 0.00 +0.04 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:27
2 Dylan DeMelo D -0.09 0.00 +0.04 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 24:36
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 20:33
44 Josh Morrissey D -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 25:02
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.35 0.00 +0.05 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:53
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.45 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 12:01
13 Gabriel Vilardi C -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.73 0.00 +0.01 +0.11 — 18:52
24 Haydn Fleury D -0.61 0.00 +0.01 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:11
17 Adam Lowry C -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.71 0.00 -0.07 +0.16 — 20:14

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.