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St. Louis BluesSTL 2–3 Final Winnipeg JetsWPG

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 002 2 31
Winnipeg JetsWPG 201 3 16
Playoff odds, % Change
WPG +2.2
STL -1.8
DET +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 15, 2026 3:01 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:31 WPG Haydn Fleury (1) Brad Lambert (1), Morgan Barron (11) · snap xG 0.11 0–1 ▶
7:51 WPG Mark Scheifele (31) Josh Morrissey (34) · backhand xG 0.15 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
5:17 STL Dalibor Dvorsky (10) Jonatan Berggren (11), Pius Suter (12) · tip-in xG 0.10 1–2 ▶
11:53 WPG Kyle Connor (31) Morgan Barron (12), Haydn Fleury (1) · snap xG 0.23 1–3 ▶
19:09 STL Dylan Holloway (14) Logan Mailloux (3), Jimmy Snuggerud (20) · wrist xG 0.74 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 70%Deserve to win30% WPG
STLWPG
3.52Expected goals2.69
2Goals (no shootout)3
2.43Expected goals, 5 on 51.53
60Shot attempts37
44Unblocked attempts31
31Shots on goal16

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:13 STL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Binnington, down 3–1
With 3:47 left; STL scored at 19:09 of the 3rd (2–3)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WPG shoots
Philip Broberg: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:34) Pius Suter: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:48) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:29) Dylan DeMelo: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:36) Theo Lindstein: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:10) Pavel Buchnevich: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:23) Theo Lindstein: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:28) Haydn Fleury: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:33) Cam Fowler: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:29) Cole Koepke: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:49) Mark Scheifele: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:58) Logan Mailloux: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:46) Pius Suter: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:53) Jimmy Snuggerud: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:03) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:04) Dylan Holloway: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:14) Colton Parayko: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:39) Josh Morrissey: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:22) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:58) Cole Perfetti: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:04) Cam Fowler: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:26) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.36 (P2 0:32) Kyle Connor: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:18) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:44) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:01) Theo Lindstein: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:14) Cole Perfetti: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:30) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:43) Jordan Kyrou: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:40) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 7:06) Jordan Kyrou: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:19) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:09) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:28) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:59) Justin Holl: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:06) Colton Parayko: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:11) Cole Koepke: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:01) Dylan Holloway: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:22) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:45) Cole Perfetti: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 17:50) Josh Morrissey: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:21) Cole Perfetti: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 19:17) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:19) Colton Parayko: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:41) Haydn Fleury: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:04) Colton Parayko: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:29) Dylan DeMelo: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:37) Haydn Fleury: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:48) Jacob Bryson: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:56) Jordan Kyrou: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 5:57) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:39) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 6:44) Jimmy Snuggerud: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:51) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:58) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:40) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:00) Cam Fowler: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:11) Colton Parayko: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:16) Dylan Holloway: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:10) Jordan Kyrou: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:02) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:06) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:33) Morgan Barron: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:39) Pius Suter: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:49) Theo Lindstein: backhand, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:08) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 174 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:14) Dylan Holloway: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:25) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:57) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:06) Morgan Barron: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 19:38) Haydn Fleury: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:31) Mark Scheifele: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:51) Dalibor Dvorsky: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:17) Kyle Connor: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 11:53) Dylan Holloway: GOAL, wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.74 (P3 19:09)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 000 +1 10.00 1122:18
81 Dylan Holloway 101 +1 111.52 2021:13
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 011 +1 90.39 1019:53
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -3 40.17 0016:30
22 Pius Suter 011 +1 40.25 0015:27
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 -3 40.41 0014:13
63 Jake Neighbours 000 -2 10.15 3013:24
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 101 +1 20.13 0012:16
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 00.00 2011:13
37 Jack Finley 000 0 10.00 0011:03
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 00.00 0210:47
29 Jonatan Berggren 011 +1 10.02 1010:19
Defense
23 Logan Mailloux 011 0 40.11 0124:58
6 Philip Broberg 000 0 10.01 0024:42
55 Colton Parayko 000 -1 60.19 2122:19
17 Cam Fowler 000 0 50.09 0019:18
4 Theo Lindstein 000 -1 50.04 1115:12
4 Justin Holl 000 0 10.04 0012:42
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 16313 .813 2.35 -0.65

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 101 +2 30.26 2022:57
55 Mark Scheifele 101 0 40.38 0022:12
17 Adam Lowry 000 -2 00.00 1117:22
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -2 90.95 0216:53
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 10.16 5116:47
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 20.23 0016:34
36 Morgan Barron 022 +2 20.34 0216:02
19 Jonathan Toews 000 +1 00.00 1012:35
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 +1 00.00 0012:11
27 Isak Rosen 000 +1 00.00 1111:24
45 Cole Koepke 000 +1 20.03 5009:10
93 Brad Lambert 011 +1 00.00 0009:08
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 011 -1 30.09 1124:54
54 Dylan Samberg 000 0 00.00 1523:16
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 -1 20.03 2122:53
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 0 30.05 5020:25
78 Jacob Bryson 000 +2 20.02 0011:53
24 Haydn Fleury 112 +2 40.16 2011:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Eric Comrie 31229 .935 3.52 +1.52

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Dylan Holloway L +2.82 +0.75 +0.99 +1.17 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 21:13
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.79 +0.55 +0.26 +0.96 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:53
23 Logan Mailloux D +1.56 +0.70 +0.07 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:58
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +1.55 +0.75 +0.09 +0.70 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:16
29 Jonatan Berggren R +1.40 +0.70 +0.01 +0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:19
18 Robert Thomas C +1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 22:18
6 Philip Broberg D +0.71 0.00 +0.01 +0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:42
22 Pius Suter C +0.68 +0.55 +0.16 +0.14 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 15:27
55 Colton Parayko D +0.63 0.00 +0.12 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:19
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.28 0.00 +0.10 +0.20 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:24
17 Cam Fowler D +0.16 0.00 +0.06 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:18
25 Jordan Kyrou R 0.00 0.00 +0.27 -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:13
41 Theo Lindstein D -0.13 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:12
89 Pavel Buchnevich L -0.15 0.00 +0.11 -0.22 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 16:30
4 Justin Holl D -0.25 0.00 +0.03 -0.13 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:42
37 Jack Finley C -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.65 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 11:03
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 10:47
50 Jordan Binnington G -0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.65 56:13
70 Oskar Sundqvist C -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.61 -0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 11:13

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Haydn Fleury D +1.84 +1.30 +0.10 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:32
1 Eric Comrie G +1.52 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.52 59:52
36 Morgan Barron C +1.19 +1.25 +0.22 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 16:02
91 Cole Perfetti C +1.07 0.00 +0.62 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:53
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.74 +0.75 +0.25 -0.31 0.00 +0.07 -0.02 — 22:12
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.64 0.00 +0.15 +0.35 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:34
93 Brad Lambert C +0.62 +0.70 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:08
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 23:16
81 Kyle Connor L +0.51 +0.75 +0.17 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 22:57
78 Jacob Bryson D +0.41 0.00 +0.01 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:53
57 Elias Salomonsson D +0.32 0.00 +0.03 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:25
17 Adam Lowry C +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 17:22
45 Cole Koepke L -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:10
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.28 0.00 +0.10 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:47
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:11
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 12:35
27 Isak Rosen R -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.62 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:24
44 Josh Morrissey D -0.96 +0.70 +0.06 -1.76 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:54
2 Dylan DeMelo D -1.27 0.00 +0.02 -1.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.