| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 39 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:32 | Matt Boldy (39) Marcus Johansson (31), Joel Eriksson Ek (28) · wrist xG 0.08 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 16:00 | Tom Willander (5) Teddy Blueger (6), Max Sasson (6) · wrist xG 0.36 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 16:42 | Jake DeBrusk (18)PP Filip Hronek (36), Elias Pettersson (33) · wrist xG 0.40 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 0:23 | Matt Boldy (40) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.11 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 6:08 | Kirill Kaprizov (40) Mats Zuccarello (31) · snap xG 0.09 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 6:03 | Ryan Hartman (19) Mats Zuccarello (32), Quinn Hughes (67) · tip-in xG 0.12 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 18:52 | Ryan Hartman (20)EN Kirill Kaprizov (43), Matt Boldy (39) · wrist xG 0.43 | 2–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| VAN | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.96 | Expected goals | 4.33 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.39 |
| 65 | Shot attempts | 65 |
| 45 | Unblocked attempts | 51 |
| 33 | Shots on goal | 39 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:42 | VAN | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · VAN takes the lead, 67–33%
MIN had led since 14:43 of the 1st, by as much as 60% |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 1:37 | MIN | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · MIN takes the lead, 62–38%
VAN had led since 16:42 of the 1st, by as much as 70% |
| 15:50 | VAN | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Tolopilo, down 4–2
With 4:10 left |
| 17:39 | VAN | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Tolopilo, down 4–2
With 2:21 left; MIN scored at 18:52 of the 3rd (2–5) |
| 19:20 | VAN | No shift | No shift · Joseph, 10:18 on the bench
No shift after 7:22 of the 3rd; 19 shifts (10:52) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 6 | Brock Boeser | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 |
| 40 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 1 | 18:07 |
| 23 | Marco Rossi | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 6 | 0.14 | 1 | 0 | 17:35 |
| 94 | Linus Karlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 17:09 |
| 73 | Teddy Blueger | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.68 | 3 | 0 | 16:51 |
| 18 | Drew O'Connor | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 |
| 74 | Jake DeBrusk | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 0.66 | 1 | 0 | 15:44 |
| 92 | Liam Ohgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 15:19 |
| 63 | Max Sasson | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 13:30 |
| 54 | Aatu Räty | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.15 | 4 | 0 | 12:03 |
| 39 | Ty Mueller | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 09:55 |
| 42 | Curtis Douglas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 08:44 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 17 | Filip Hronek | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 7 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 26:49 |
| 26 | Marcus Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 5 | 23:09 |
| 8 | Zeev Buium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 3 | 1 | 23:01 |
| 5 | Tom Willander | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 2 | 22:48 |
| 25 | Elias Pettersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 11:28 |
| 7 | Pierre-Olivier Joseph | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 | 10:52 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo | 38 | 4 | 34 | .895 | 3.61 | -0.39 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 36 | Mats Zuccarello | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | 20:02 |
| 97 | Kirill Kaprizov | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 8 | 0.44 | 1 | 0 | 19:45 |
| 38 | Ryan Hartman | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 1.01 | 0 | 1 | 18:30 |
| 14 | Joel Eriksson Ek | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.19 | 3 | 0 | 15:56 |
| 12 | Matt Boldy | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 9 | 0.65 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 |
| 91 | Vladimir Tarasenko | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 1 | 14:44 |
| 10 | Bobby Brink | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 2 | 1 | 13:09 |
| 17 | Marcus Foligno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 13:06 |
| 22 | Danila Yurov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 2 | 12:53 |
| 47 | Michael McCarron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 12:43 |
| 13 | Yakov Trenin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 |
| 90 | Marcus Johansson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Quinn Hughes | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0 | 2 | 24:48 |
| 7 | Brock Faber | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 0.07 | 2 | 0 | 23:08 |
| 55 | Jake Middleton | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 18:54 |
| 46 | Jared Spurgeon | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 17:22 |
| 25 | Jonas Brodin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 16:30 |
| 24 | Zach Bogosian | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.04 | 1 | 3 | 16:17 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson | 33 | 2 | 31 | .939 | 2.96 | +0.96 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 Teddy Blueger C | +1.04 | +0.70 | +0.44 | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 16:51 |
| 63 Max Sasson C | +0.43 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 13:30 |
| 74 Jake DeBrusk L | +0.38 | +0.75 | +0.43 | -0.79 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:44 |
| 5 Tom Willander D | +0.04 | +0.75 | +0.25 | -1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 22:48 |
| 40 Elias Pettersson C | +0.02 | +0.55 | +0.11 | -0.72 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.05 | — | 18:07 |
| 42 Curtis Douglas C | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.33 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 8:44 |
| 17 Filip Hronek D | -0.18 | +0.70 | +0.10 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 26:49 |
| 54 Aatu Räty C | -0.21 | 0.00 | +0.10 | -0.39 | 0.00 | +0.08 | 0.00 | — | 12:03 |
| 24 Zeev Buium D | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 23:01 |
| 94 Linus Karlsson C | -0.35 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 17:09 |
| 39 Ty Mueller C | -0.37 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.36 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 9:55 |
| 60 Nikita Tolopilo G | -0.39 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.39 | 57:17 |
| 29 Marcus Pettersson D | -0.64 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | — | 23:09 |
| 7 Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | -0.85 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.76 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:52 |
| 92 Liam Ohgren L | -0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.96 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:19 |
| 6 Brock Boeser R | -0.96 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -1.10 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 19:46 |
| 93 Marco Rossi C | -1.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 17:35 |
| 25 Elias Pettersson D | -1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 11:28 |
| 18 Drew O'Connor L | -1.36 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -1.22 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:53 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 Ryan Hartman R | +3.57 | +1.50 | +0.66 | +1.39 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 18:30 |
| 12 Matt Boldy L | +3.21 | +2.05 | +0.42 | +0.65 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 15:45 |
| 97 Kirill Kaprizov L | +3.15 | +1.45 | +0.28 | +1.31 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 19:45 |
| 36 Mats Zuccarello R | +2.74 | +1.40 | +0.19 | +1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 20:02 |
| 43 Quinn Hughes D | +2.23 | +0.55 | +0.22 | +1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 24:48 |
| 7 Brock Faber D | +1.30 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 23:08 |
| 90 Marcus Johansson L | +1.20 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:13 |
| 14 Joel Eriksson Ek C | +1.15 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.69 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 0.00 | — | 15:56 |
| 46 Jared Spurgeon D | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:22 |
| 32 Filip Gustavsson G | +0.96 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.96 | 60:00 |
| 5 Jake Middleton D | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 18:54 |
| 91 Vladimir Tarasenko R | +0.77 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:44 |
| 10 Bobby Brink R | +0.68 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.59 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 13:09 |
| 24 Zach Bogosian D | +0.64 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 16:17 |
| 47 Michael McCarron C | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 12:43 |
| 25 Jonas Brodin D | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:30 |
| 13 Yakov Trenin C | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:57 |
| 17 Marcus Foligno L | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 13:06 |
| 22 Danila Yurov R | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.03 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.08 | — | 12:53 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.