Thursday, April 2, 2026
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
NSH 59%Deserve to win 41% LAK
NSH LAK
3.71 Expected goals 3.15
4 Goals (no shootout) 4
2.59 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.75
72 Shot attempts 68
54 Unblocked attempts 52
34 Shots on goal 33
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
1:20
NSH
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced LAK 1.41–0.13
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:10 of the 1st to 2:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
Shot map
NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → LAK shoots
Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:16)
Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:40)
Artemi Panarin: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:06)
Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:39)
Tyson Jost: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:30)
Joakim Kemell: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:10)
Quinton Byfield: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:19)
Joel Edmundson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:27)
Brandt Clarke: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:30)
Roman Josi: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:40)
Scott Laughton: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:17)
Joel Armia: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 4:20)
Adrian Kempe: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:13)
Joel Edmundson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:28)
Adam Wilsby: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:22)
Taylor Ward: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:11)
Adrian Kempe: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:41)
Tyson Jost: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:40)
Tyson Jost: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:41)
Tyson Jost: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:42)
Erik Haula: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:43)
Roman Josi: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 12:49)
Nick Perbix: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:55)
Steven Stamkos: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:03)
Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 15:05)
Zachary L'Heureux: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:06)
Tyson Jost: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 17:05)
Alex Laferriere: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:02)
Samuel Helenius: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:27)
Mikey Anderson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:36)
Artemi Panarin: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:28)
Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:51)
Filip Forsberg: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:51)
Matthew Wood: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:09)
Filip Forsberg: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:10)
Joel Armia: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:32)
Matthew Wood: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:59)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:29)
Steven Stamkos: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:42)
Joel Edmundson: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:09)
Joel Armia: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:17)
Filip Forsberg: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:19)
Filip Forsberg: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:34)
Zachary L'Heureux: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:35)
Justin Barron: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:19)
Jared Wright: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:30)
Brandt Clarke: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:40)
Trevor Moore: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:27)
Alex Laferriere: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:58)
Reid Schaefer: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:36)
Roman Josi: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:22)
Brady Skjei: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:25)
Steven Stamkos: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:24)
Tyson Jost: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:18)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:53)
Trevor Moore: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:17)
Joel Armia: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:43)
Reid Schaefer: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:05)
Trevor Moore: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:14)
Quinton Byfield: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:31)
Brian Dumoulin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:44)
Adam Wilsby: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:16)
Adam Wilsby: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:24)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:06)
Zachary L'Heureux: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:47)
Artemi Panarin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:12)
Roman Josi: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:01)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:58)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:58)
Nicolas Hague: wrist, 179 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:06)
Joel Armia: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:00)
Matthew Wood: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:36)
Roman Josi: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:56)
Mathieu Joseph: wrist, 129 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:07)
Luke Evangelista: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:47)
Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:02)
Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:14)
Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:23)
Jared Wright: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:55)
Joel Armia: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:46)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:50)
Joel Edmundson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:56)
Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:25)
Brandt Clarke: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:37)
Drew Doughty: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:29)
Quinton Byfield: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:00)
Quinton Byfield: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:10)
Quinton Byfield: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:17)
Jared Wright: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:30)
Scott Laughton: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:31)
Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 17:15)
Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:30)
Adrian Kempe: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:36)
Alex Laferriere: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 1:26)
Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 2:05)
Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 2:28)
Matthew Wood: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:33)
Roman Josi: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 4:51)
Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:52)
Zachary L'Heureux: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 3:47)
Jonathan Marchessault: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 2:02)
Adrian Kempe: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 6:09)
Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 8:19)
Adrian Kempe: GOAL, snap, 19 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 13:29)
Scott Laughton: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 15:45)
Joel Armia: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.48 (P3 9:57)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Nashville Predators
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Juuse Saros
33 4 29
.879
3.15
-0.85
Los Angeles Kings
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Nashville Predators
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
59 Roman Josi D
+2.87
+0.55
+0.30
+1.72
+0.15
0.00
+0.15
—
27:49
91 Steven Stamkos C
+2.74
+0.75
+0.19
+1.76
0.00
+0.01
+0.03
—
20:40
90 Ryan O'Reilly C
+2.47
+0.70
+0.31
+1.34
0.00
-0.01
+0.12
—
22:39
68 Zachary L'Heureux L
+2.37
+0.75
+0.29
+1.32
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
16:55
76 Brady Skjei D
+1.63
+0.70
0.00
+1.18
-0.30
0.00
+0.05
—
24:59
81 Jonathan Marchessault R
+0.82
+1.45
+0.48
-0.95
-0.15
-0.01
0.00
—
21:12
40 Fedor Svechkov C
+0.35
0.00
0.00
+0.16
+0.15
-0.01
+0.05
—
12:54
49 Reid Schaefer L
+0.22
0.00
+0.05
+0.16
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
8:05
71 Matthew Wood R
+0.13
+0.70
+0.12
-0.71
0.00
-0.02
+0.04
—
15:00
25 Joakim Kemell R
+0.03
0.00
+0.06
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:12
20 Justin Barron D
-0.05
+0.55
+0.01
-0.81
0.00
0.00
+0.20
—
15:18
17 Tyson Jost C
-0.32
0.00
+0.27
-0.61
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
14:29
9 Filip Forsberg L
-0.34
+0.75
+0.19
-1.24
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
20:34
56 Erik Haula L
-0.45
+0.55
+0.04
-0.97
0.00
-0.05
-0.02
—
16:31
77 Luke Evangelista R
-0.51
0.00
+0.07
-0.60
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
10:50
48 Nick Perbix D
-0.53
0.00
0.00
-0.71
+0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
19:02
83 Adam Wilsby D
-0.67
0.00
+0.03
-0.73
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
14:36
74 Juuse Saros G
-0.85
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.85
64:45
41 Nicolas Hague D
-1.13
0.00
0.00
-1.16
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
19:30
Los Angeles Kings
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
40 Joel Armia R
+3.15
+1.45
+0.62
+1.12
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
13:08
21 Scott Laughton C
+2.10
+0.75
+0.15
+1.16
0.00
+0.05
-0.01
—
16:54
9 Adrian Kempe R
+1.74
+1.50
+0.36
-0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
20:26
53 Jared Wright R
+1.66
+0.70
+0.09
+1.00
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
11:50
44 Mikey Anderson D
+0.83
+0.55
+0.01
+0.23
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
21:52
2 Brian Dumoulin D
+0.60
+0.55
+0.01
-0.05
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
17:33
5 Cody Ceci D
+0.51
0.00
0.00
+0.48
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
17:32
8 Drew Doughty D
+0.50
0.00
+0.02
+0.27
+0.15
0.00
+0.06
—
26:11
10 Artemi Panarin L
+0.45
+0.70
+0.06
-0.12
-0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
20:53
11 Anze Kopitar C
+0.28
+0.55
0.00
-0.44
+0.15
+0.06
-0.04
—
20:34
79 Samuel Helenius C
+0.20
0.00
+0.01
+0.09
+0.15
-0.03
-0.02
—
6:13
6 Joel Edmundson D
+0.19
+0.70
+0.06
-0.52
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
16:47
52 Taylor Ward R
+0.12
0.00
+0.05
+0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
7:13
92 Brandt Clarke D
+0.02
0.00
+0.02
-0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.06
—
19:40
17 Mathieu Joseph R
-0.05
0.00
+0.01
-0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
6:47
55 Quinton Byfield R
-0.28
0.00
+0.13
-0.47
0.00
-0.02
+0.08
—
22:07
35 Darcy Kuemper G
-0.44
0.00
—
—
-0.15
—
—
-0.29
65:00
12 Trevor Moore L
-0.54
0.00
+0.19
-0.78
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
19:12
14 Alex Laferriere R
-0.63
0.00
+0.28
-0.94
0.00
+0.04
-0.01
—
24:08
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.