Thursday, April 9, 2026
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
VGK 61%Deserve to win 39% SEA
VGK SEA
3.51 Expected goals 2.82
3 Goals (no shootout) 3
2.62 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.18
65 Shot attempts 70
50 Unblocked attempts 53
35 Shots on goal 33
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
13:00
SEA
No shift
No shift · Fisker Molgaard, 10:25 on the bench
No shift from 2:54 to 13:19 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (5:26) before that
3rd Period
17:50
VGK
No shift
No shift · Hutton, 12:18 on the bench
No shift after 7:42 of the 3rd; 15 shifts (10:12) before that
Shot map
VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → SEA shoots
Mark Stone: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:22)
Mitch Marner: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:22)
Ivan Barbashev: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:00)
Tomas Hertl: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:17)
Noah Hanifin: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:05)
Jacob Melanson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:43)
Bobby McMann: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:04)
Chandler Stephenson: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:03)
Chandler Stephenson: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 9:37)
Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 9:47)
Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:54)
Brandon Saad: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:24)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:31)
Adam Larsson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:00)
Jaden Schwartz: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:08)
Brayden McNabb: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:28)
Keegan Kolesar: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:29)
Matty Beniers: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 13:48)
Jamie Oleksiak: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:14)
Jacob Melanson: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:46)
Jacob Melanson: poke, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:47)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:06)
Adam Larsson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:09)
Ryan Winterton: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:02)
Josh Mahura: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:07)
Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 102 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:22)
Tomas Hertl: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:11)
Adam Larsson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:36)
Mark Stone: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:58)
Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:44)
Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:39)
Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:01)
Vince Dunn: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:20)
Adam Larsson: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:24)
Matty Beniers: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:45)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:38)
Brandon Saad: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:22)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:41)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:35)
Noah Hanifin: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:52)
Bobby McMann: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:21)
Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:00)
Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:58)
Brett Howden: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:11)
Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:44)
Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:40)
Ben Hutton: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:46)
Nic Dowd: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:57)
Berkly Catton: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:19)
Jacob Melanson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:42)
Josh Mahura: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:14)
Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:07)
Cole Smith: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:56)
Noah Hanifin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:25)
Noah Hanifin: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:30)
Noah Hanifin: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:32)
Jordan Eberle: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:53)
Jared McCann: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:19)
Vince Dunn: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:26)
Brayden McNabb: wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:30)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:09)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:34)
Jordan Eberle: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:52)
Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:23)
Adam Larsson: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:41)
Ben Hutton: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:44)
Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 6:34)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:55)
Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:23)
Shea Theodore: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:30)
Tomas Hertl: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:40)
Ryan Winterton: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:50)
Jack Eichel: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:52)
Jack Eichel: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:56)
Ryker Evans: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:53)
Frederick Gaudreau: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:05)
Ryan Winterton: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:08)
Brandon Montour: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:56)
Brandon Montour: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:09)
Jamie Oleksiak: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:11)
Kaapo Kakko: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:34)
Brandon Montour: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:37)
Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:00)
Jordan Eberle: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:26)
Tomas Hertl: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:18)
Brandon Saad: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:35)
Ryan Winterton: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:45)
Keegan Kolesar: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:32)
Vince Dunn: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:00)
Matty Beniers: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 1:45)
Ivan Barbashev: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 1:58)
Jack Eichel: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:30)
Mitch Marner: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 3:33)
Jack Eichel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 4:14)
Jared McCann: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 4:23)
Jack Eichel: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 4:31)
Bobby McMann: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 4:46)
Mark Stone: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:04)
Mark Stone: GOAL, backhand, 3 ft, xG 0.47 (P2 0:55)
Jared McCann: GOAL, slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:54)
Brett Howden: GOAL, deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 1:11)
Berkly Catton: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:11)
Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:16)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Adin Hill
33 3 30
.909
2.82
-0.18
Seattle Kraken
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Joey Daccord
35 3 32
.914
3.51
+0.51
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Vegas Golden Knights
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
61 Mark Stone R
+2.55
+1.50
+0.50
+0.41
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
20:13
9 Jack Eichel C
+1.23
+0.70
+0.16
+0.44
0.00
-0.04
-0.02
—
21:19
3 Brayden McNabb D
+1.12
0.00
+0.02
+1.04
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
20:05
49 Ivan Barbashev L
+0.99
0.00
+0.33
+0.68
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
18:26
21 Brett Howden C
+0.96
+0.75
+0.21
+0.01
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
15:34
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R
+0.82
+0.70
+0.16
-0.08
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:30
27 Shea Theodore D
+0.78
0.00
+0.02
+0.79
0.00
0.00
-0.03
—
23:32
48 Tomas Hertl C
+0.62
+0.55
+0.12
-0.13
0.00
+0.01
+0.06
—
14:46
4 Rasmus Andersson D
+0.55
+0.70
+0.07
-0.29
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
29:03
93 Mitch Marner R
+0.48
+0.55
+0.07
-0.14
0.00
-0.02
+0.02
—
19:18
15 Noah Hanifin D
+0.37
+0.55
+0.11
-0.32
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
24:50
26 Nic Dowd C
+0.25
0.00
+0.08
+0.11
0.00
+0.04
+0.02
—
12:05
55 Keegan Kolesar R
+0.24
0.00
+0.06
+0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:42
22 Cole Smith R
+0.15
0.00
+0.04
+0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
12:05
17 Ben Hutton D
+0.13
0.00
+0.04
+0.02
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
10:12
20 Brandon Saad L
+0.04
0.00
+0.13
-0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
14:13
10 Colton Sissons C
+0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.02
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
14:32
5 Jeremy Lauzon D
-0.09
0.00
+0.15
-0.28
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
15:36
33 Adin Hill G
-0.18
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.18
65:00
Seattle Kraken
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
74 Bobby McMann C
+1.92
+0.75
+0.41
+0.78
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
19:33
7 Jordan Eberle R
+1.79
+0.70
+0.16
+0.77
+0.15
-0.01
+0.02
—
20:05
29 Vince Dunn D
+1.25
+1.25
+0.08
-0.20
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
22:50
10 Matty Beniers C
+1.02
0.00
+0.21
+0.76
0.00
+0.02
+0.03
—
21:17
6 Adam Larsson D
+0.84
+0.70
+0.05
+0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
21:23
19 Jared McCann L
+0.81
+0.75
+0.18
-0.07
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
14:21
26 Ryan Winterton C
+0.77
0.00
+0.23
+0.55
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
15:02
35 Joey Daccord G
+0.51
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.51
65:00
27 Berkly Catton C
+0.38
+0.75
+0.13
-0.49
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
11:01
41 Ryker Evans D
+0.30
0.00
+0.02
+0.18
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
22:30
63 Jacob Melanson R
+0.13
0.00
+0.05
+0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
9:01
89 Frederick Gaudreau C
+0.01
0.00
+0.01
+0.02
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
15:06
78 Oscar Fisker Molgaard C
-0.10
0.00
0.00
-0.06
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
—
9:01
28 Josh Mahura D
-0.17
0.00
+0.03
-0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:04
24 Jamie Oleksiak D
-0.31
0.00
+0.03
-0.32
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
17:10
9 Chandler Stephenson C
-0.32
+0.55
+0.13
-1.21
0.00
+0.07
+0.14
—
20:04
62 Brandon Montour D
-0.56
0.00
+0.02
-0.53
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
24:09
17 Jaden Schwartz L
-1.13
0.00
+0.02
-1.22
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
17:19
84 Kaapo Kakko R
-1.22
0.00
+0.06
-1.32
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
18:09
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.