Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–1 Final Boston BruinsBOS

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	0	2	2	24
Boston BruinsBOS	0	1	0	1	21

Playoff odds, %	Change
BOS	-1.2
TBL	+0.0
DET	+0.9

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 11, 2026 12:06 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
10:47	BOS	Morgan Geekie (38) Charlie McAvoy (50) · wrist xG 0.13	0–1 ▶
3rd Period
6:37	TBL	Brandon Hagel (36) Gage Goncalves (22), Ryan McDonagh (14) · wrist xG 0.17	1–1 ▶
18:25	TBL	Emil Lilleberg (4) Jake Guentzel (50), Brayden Point (31) · wrist xG 0.46	2–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 58%Deserve to win42% BOS

TBL		BOS
2.79	Expected goals	2.36
2	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.75	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.08
45	Shot attempts	62
29	Unblocked attempts	44
24	Shots on goal	21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:51	BOS	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BOS takes the lead, 63–37% TBL had led since 6:20 of the 1st, by as much as 60%
3rd Period
18:25	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% BOS had led since 14:51 of the 1st, by as much as 64%

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BOS shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	0	0	0	5	0.21	0	1	20:21
21	Brayden Point	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	0	0	19:21
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	+1	2	0.37	0	1	19:15
38	Brandon Hagel	1	0	1	+1	5	0.70	0	0	18:46
59	Jake Guentzel	0	1	1	0	1	0.12	0	1	18:10
93	Gage Goncalves	0	1	1	+1	1	0.11	3	1	14:04
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	0	3	0.18	2	1	13:58
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	0	13:42
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	1	12:48
94	Conor Geekie	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	1	0	09:47
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	09:33
90	Corey Perry	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	0	0	09:10
Defense
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	-1	6	0.00	2	1	22:29
78	Emil Lilleberg	1	0	1	+1	4	0.51	2	1	21:03
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	+1	3	0.12	1	2	21:02
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	+1	4	0.14	5	2	21:00
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	1	0	19:19
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	3	2	13:38

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	1	20	.952	2.36	+1.36

Boston Bruins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
88	David Pastrnak	0	0	0	0	6	0.22	4	1	18:53
28	Elias Lindholm	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	0	17:39
11	Casey Mittelstadt	0	0	0	-1	3	0.09	0	0	17:28
18	Pavel Zacha	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	0	0	17:11
39	Morgan Geekie	1	0	1	0	3	0.17	0	3	16:54
33	Viktor Arvidsson	0	0	0	-1	7	0.33	1	1	16:01
93	Fraser Minten	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	1	0	13:38
52	Sean Kuraly	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	13:02
92	Marat Khusnutdinov	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	12:55
47	Mark Kastelic	0	0	0	0	8	0.40	5	1	12:12
84	Tanner Jeannot	0	0	0	0	5	0.02	6	0	11:25
81	Michael Eyssimont	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	10:50
Defense
73	Charlie McAvoy	0	1	1	0	3	0.01	0	2	25:31
27	Hampus Lindholm	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	21:23
20	Andrew Peeke	0	0	0	-1	4	0.10	3	2	19:35
91	Nikita Zadorov	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	0	19:23
45	Jonathan Aspirot	0	0	0	0	6	0.43	1	1	17:06
6	Mason Lohrei	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	0	2	16:20

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jeremy Swayman	24	2	22	.917	2.79	+0.79

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
93 Gage Goncalves C	+2.09	+0.70	+0.07	+1.26	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:04
38 Brandon Hagel L	+1.76	+0.75	+0.45	+0.77	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	18:46
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+1.68	+0.75	+0.33	+0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	21:03
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.56	+0.70	+0.08	+0.60	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	18:10
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+1.36	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.36	59:57
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+1.29	+0.55	+0.04	+0.72	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:20
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+1.24	0.00	+0.08	+1.08	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	21:02
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+1.24	0.00	+0.24	+0.95	0.00	-0.02	+0.07	—	19:15
21 Brayden Point C	+1.24	+0.55	+0.04	+0.68	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	19:21
67 Declan Carlile D	+0.61	0.00	+0.09	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	21:00
20 Nick Paul L	+0.37	0.00	+0.12	+0.24	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	13:58
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+0.01	0.00	+0.13	-0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:21
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	+0.02	—	13:42
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	-0.04	0.00	+0.02	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:48
81 Erik Cernak D	-0.07	0.00	+0.01	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	13:37
14 Conor Geekie C	-0.21	0.00	+0.09	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	9:47
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:33
10 Corey Perry R	-0.73	0.00	+0.03	-0.78	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	9:10
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.88	0.00	0.00	-0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	22:29

Boston Bruins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
73 Charlie McAvoy D	+1.52	+0.70	+0.01	+0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	25:31
1 Jeremy Swayman G	+0.79	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.79	58:34
45 Jonathan Aspirot D	+0.75	0.00	+0.28	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:06
47 Mark Kastelic C	+0.69	0.00	+0.26	+0.37	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	12:12
84 Tanner Jeannot L	+0.51	0.00	+0.01	+0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:25
52 Sean Kuraly C	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.37	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	13:02
81 Michael Eyssimont C	+0.22	0.00	+0.01	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	10:44
93 Fraser Minten C	+0.14	0.00	+0.11	+0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	13:38
39 Morgan Geekie C	+0.06	+0.75	+0.11	-0.94	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	16:54
92 Marat Khusnutdinov C	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	12:55
71 Viktor Arvidsson L	-0.06	0.00	+0.21	-0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:01
6 Mason Lohrei D	-0.19	0.00	+0.06	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	16:20
18 Pavel Zacha C	-0.21	0.00	+0.09	-0.30	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	17:11
11 Casey Mittelstadt C	-0.44	0.00	+0.06	-0.58	+0.15	-0.01	-0.06	—	17:28
26 Andrew Peeke D	-0.67	0.00	+0.07	-0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:35
27 Hampus Lindholm D	-0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.81	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:23
88 David Pastrnak R	-0.88	0.00	+0.14	-1.03	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:53
91 Nikita Zadorov D	-0.92	0.00	+0.01	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:29
28 Elias Lindholm C	-0.96	0.00	+0.09	-0.99	-0.15	+0.08	0.00	—	17:39

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.