Tuesday, April 14, 2026
Playoff odds, %
Change
PHI
+0.0
MTL
+0.0
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 14, 2026 6:32 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
MTL 56%Deserve to win 44% PHI
MTL PHI
2.68 Expected goals 2.34
2 Goals (no shootout) 4
1.95 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.45
59 Shot attempts 36
42 Unblocked attempts 29
29 Shots on goal 25
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
17:40
PHI
No shift
No shift · Hathaway, 13:38 on the bench
No shift from 7:40 of the 1st to 1:18 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (1:28) before that
3rd Period
16:12
MTL
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Dobes, down 4–2
With 3:48 left
Shot map
MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → PHI shoots
Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:18)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 0:25)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:51)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:01)
Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:52)
Alex Bump: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:22)
Tyson Foerster: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:45)
Matvei Michkov: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 4:06)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:09)
Cole Caufield: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:10)
Arber Xhekaj: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:42)
Cole Caufield: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:57)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:32)
Arber Xhekaj: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:48)
Emil Andrae: wrist, 102 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:36)
Jake Evans: backhand, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:51)
Matvei Michkov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:30)
Ivan Demidov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:03)
Matvei Michkov: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:12)
Noah Cates: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:22)
Jayden Struble: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:45)
Arber Xhekaj: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:48)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:53)
Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:09)
Kaiden Guhle: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:14)
Jacob Gaucher: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:31)
Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:58)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:46)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:19)
Porter Martone: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:43)
Nick Seeler: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:38)
Matvei Michkov: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:08)
David Reinbacher: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:54)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:59)
Cole Caufield: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:34)
Denver Barkey: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 8:49)
Porter Martone: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:10)
Jake Evans: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 9:48)
Adam Engstrom: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:06)
David Jiricek: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:22)
Matvei Michkov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:36)
Garrett Wilson: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:46)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:57)
Porter Martone: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:00)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 15:40)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:54)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:34)
Arber Xhekaj: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:46)
David Jiricek: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:58)
Carl Grundstrom: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 3:00)
Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:21)
Tyson Foerster: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:32)
Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:13)
Nick Suzuki: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:07)
Cole Caufield: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:54)
Noah Cates: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:11)
Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:18)
Porter Martone: wrist, 135 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:51)
Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:05)
Cole Caufield: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:28)
Alexandre Texier: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:10)
Nick Suzuki: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:30)
Lane Hutson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:37)
Alex Newhook: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:54)
Cole Caufield: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:10)
Porter Martone: GOAL, tip-in, 2 ft, xG 0.44 (P1 8:08)
Oliver Bonk: GOAL, wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:42)
Brendan Gallagher: GOAL, tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:50)
Matvei Michkov: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 13:52)
Jake Evans: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.42 (P2 19:49)
Alex Bump: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 12:00)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Montréal Canadiens
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jakub Dobes
25 4 21
.840
2.34
-1.66
Philadelphia Flyers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Montréal Canadiens
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
21 Kaiden Guhle D
+1.80
+0.70
+0.06
+1.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:20
11 Brendan Gallagher R
+1.62
+0.75
+0.09
+0.63
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
11:34
71 Jake Evans C
+1.54
+0.75
+0.40
+0.39
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
11:15
13 Cole Caufield R
+1.10
0.00
+0.44
+0.53
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
21:21
72 Arber Xhekaj D
+0.96
+0.70
+0.03
+0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
19:46
90 Joseph Veleno C
+0.95
+0.55
0.00
+0.43
0.00
+0.01
-0.04
—
10:16
85 Alexandre Texier L
+0.71
+0.55
+0.03
+0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:54
14 Nick Suzuki C
+0.42
0.00
+0.12
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
+0.02
—
22:54
48 Lane Hutson D
+0.38
0.00
+0.02
+0.06
+0.15
0.00
+0.15
—
26:08
91 Oliver Kapanen C
+0.15
0.00
+0.04
+0.10
0.00
+0.03
-0.02
—
12:16
93 Ivan Demidov R
+0.11
0.00
+0.08
-0.02
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
20:06
20 Juraj Slafkovský L
+0.08
0.00
+0.25
-0.12
0.00
-0.01
-0.04
—
22:29
42 Adam Engstrom D
+0.07
0.00
+0.06
+0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
15:28
77 Kirby Dach C
+0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:08
47 Jayden Struble D
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:17
15 Alex Newhook C
-0.13
0.00
+0.07
-0.15
0.00
-0.05
0.00
—
15:39
64 David Reinbacher D
-0.13
0.00
+0.02
-0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
15:00
76 Zachary Bolduc R
-0.47
0.00
+0.03
-0.56
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:57
75 Jakub Dobes G
-1.66
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.66
56:12
Philadelphia Flyers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
39 Matvei Michkov R
+2.72
+2.15
+0.31
+0.21
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
16:18
94 Porter Martone R
+1.67
+1.45
+0.40
-0.15
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
17:37
59 Oliver Bonk D
+0.75
+1.30
+0.02
-0.52
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
16:28
33 Samuel Ersson G
+0.68
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.68
59:48
75 Hunter McDonald D
+0.65
+0.55
0.00
+0.20
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
15:11
20 Alex Bump L
+0.62
+0.75
+0.34
-0.48
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
16:53
78 Jacob Gaucher C
+0.21
0.00
+0.01
+0.23
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
8:56
71 Tyson Foerster R
+0.15
0.00
+0.06
+0.20
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
18:17
27 Noah Cates L
+0.01
0.00
+0.06
-0.05
0.00
-0.07
+0.07
—
17:50
47 Noah Juulsen D
+0.01
0.00
0.00
+0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.03
—
21:45
90 Anthony Richard C
-0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
7:08
19 Garnet Hathaway R
-0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
12:43
5 David Jiricek D
-0.13
0.00
+0.04
-0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
19:37
36 Emil Andrae D
-0.15
0.00
0.00
-0.16
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
21:19
10 Garrett Wilson L
-0.21
0.00
+0.01
-0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
7:53
41 Luke Glendening C
-0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.24
0.00
+0.03
0.00
—
14:57
91 Carl Grundstrom R
-0.28
0.00
+0.11
-0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
13:10
52 Denver Barkey C
-0.36
0.00
+0.16
-0.49
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
17:38
24 Nick Seeler D
-0.40
0.00
+0.01
-0.54
-0.15
0.00
+0.28
—
26:32
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.