Seattle KrakenSEA 1–4 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Seattle KrakenSEA	0	0	1	1	19
Washington CapitalsWSH	1	2	1	4	34

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:30	WSH	Nic Dowd (1) John Carlson (4), Brandon Duhaime (1) · tip-in xG 0.06	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:25	WSH	Ryan Leonard (3) Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehérváry (3) · snap xG 0.20	0–2 ▶
1:33	WSH	Jakob Chychrun (3)PP Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (7) · snap xG 0.10	0–3 ▶
3rd Period
3:50	SEA	Jaden Schwartz (2) Ben Meyers (1) · snap xG 0.08	1–3 ▶
19:10	WSH	Tom Wilson (4)EN Nic Dowd (1), Aliaksei Protas (4) · snap xG 0.68	1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SEA 31%Deserve to win69% WSH

SEA		WSH
1.86	Expected goals	3.56
1	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.36	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.44
51	Shot attempts	71
33	Unblocked attempts	50
19	Shots on goal	34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:00	WSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 1.15–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 14:10 of the 1st to 4:10 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
16:30	SEA	No shift	No shift · Nyman, 14:47 on the bench No shift from 4:22 of the 2nd to 1:09 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (6:23) before that
3rd Period
15:50	WSH	No shift	No shift · Lapierre, 11:39 on the bench No shift from 1:24 to 19:10 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (10:10) before that
17:04	SEA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Murray, down 3–1 With 2:56 left; WSH scored at 19:10 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

SEA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Seattle Kraken

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Chandler Stephenson	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	0	1	22:11
7	Jordan Eberle	0	0	0	-1	5	0.24	1	0	21:10
10	Matty Beniers	0	0	0	-1	4	0.23	1	1	19:48
71	Jaden Schwartz	1	0	1	-1	6	0.12	3	1	19:47
27	Berkly Catton	0	0	0	+1	4	0.19	1	0	18:13
17	Eeli Tolvanen	0	0	0	-2	4	0.00	1	1	16:50
51	Shane Wright	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	14:07
26	Ryan Winterton	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	0	1	12:03
59	Ben Meyers	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	1	1	10:44
24	Tye Kartye	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	10:06
Defense
29	Vince Dunn	0	0	0	-3	2	0.05	0	1	22:56
6	Adam Larsson	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	19:57
4	Jamie Oleksiak	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	5	19:31
8	Cale Fleury	0	0	0	0	6	0.07	2	0	18:04
28	Josh Mahura	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	2	17:36
55	Ryan Lindgren	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	15:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Matt Murray	33	3	30	.909	2.87	-0.13

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	1	0	1	+1	8	0.95	1	1	20:06
77	Connor McMichael	0	0	0	0	5	0.45	1	0	17:32
26	Nic Dowd	1	1	2	+1	2	0.29	1	2	16:58
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	2	2	+2	3	0.20	1	1	16:28
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	1	1	0	7	0.18	1	0	15:55
17	Dylan Strome	0	1	1	0	3	0.17	0	1	15:30
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	3	0	15:28
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	0	3	0.25	1	0	13:06
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	12:49
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	3	11:36
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	0	10:47
9	Ryan Leonard	1	0	1	+1	6	0.36	1	0	10:22
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	1	0	1	+1	5	0.20	1	1	22:23
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	1	1	+1	5	0.05	0	0	21:47
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	-1	6	0.07	1	1	21:33
74	John Carlson	0	1	1	+3	7	0.22	1	1	19:45
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	0	4	0.03	0	2	18:54
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	3	15:01

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	19	1	18	.947	1.86	+0.86

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Seattle Kraken

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Jaden Schwartz L	+0.59	+0.75	+0.08	-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	19:47
59 Ben Meyers C	+0.47	+0.70	+0.04	-0.37	0.00	+0.03	+0.07	—	10:44
77 Berkly Catton C	+0.32	0.00	+0.12	+0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:13
38 Jani Nyman R	+0.10	0.00	+0.24	-0.27	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	12:29
15 John Hayden C	+0.09	0.00	+0.17	-0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	8:35
10 Matty Beniers C	-0.03	0.00	+0.15	-0.20	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	19:48
8 Cale Fleury D	-0.04	0.00	+0.04	-0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:04
30 Matt Murray G	-0.13	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.13	57:34
12 Tye Kartye L	-0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:06
55 Ryan Lindgren D	-0.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:36
7 Jordan Eberle R	-0.26	0.00	+0.15	-0.44	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	21:10
24 Jamie Oleksiak D	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.21	—	19:31
20 Eeli Tolvanen R	-0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:50
26 Ryan Winterton C	-0.47	0.00	+0.12	-0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:03
28 Josh Mahura D	-0.53	0.00	+0.02	-0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	17:36
29 Vince Dunn D	-0.57	0.00	+0.03	-0.83	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	22:56
9 Chandler Stephenson C	-0.58	0.00	+0.02	-0.67	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	22:11
51 Shane Wright C	-0.65	0.00	0.00	-0.70	0.00	-0.01	+0.06	—	14:07
6 Adam Larsson D	-0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.78	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:57

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
43 Tom Wilson R	+2.51	+0.75	+0.61	+1.04	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	—	20:06
26 Nic Dowd C	+2.05	+1.45	+0.19	+0.15	+0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	16:58
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+1.85	+1.25	+0.13	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:28
74 John Carlson D	+1.84	+0.70	+0.14	+0.91	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	19:45
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+1.69	+0.75	+0.13	+0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	22:23
9 Ryan Leonard R	+1.25	+0.75	+0.23	+0.29	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	10:22
24 Connor McMichael C	+1.22	0.00	+0.29	+0.81	+0.15	-0.04	0.00	—	17:32
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+1.16	+0.55	+0.03	+0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	21:47
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.91	0.00	+0.02	+0.90	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	10:47
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+0.91	+0.70	+0.12	+0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:55
48 Logan Thompson G	+0.86	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.86	60:00
17 Dylan Strome C	+0.82	+0.55	+0.11	+0.10	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	15:30
34 Justin Sourdif R	+0.44	0.00	+0.01	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	+0.15	—	11:36
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+0.39	+0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	15:28
38 Rasmus Sandin D	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.17	—	15:01
3 Matt Roy D	+0.25	0.00	+0.05	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	21:33
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+0.11	0.00	+0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:54
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.01	0.00	+0.07	+0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	12:49
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	-0.02	0.00	+0.16	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:06

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.