Washington CapitalsWSH 0–1 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH	0	0	0	0	24
Dallas StarsDAL	0	1	0	1	19

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
0:43	DAL	Tyler Seguin (3)PP Miro Heiskanen (3), Mikko Rantanen (8) · snap xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 63%Deserve to win37% DAL

WSH		DAL
2.88	Expected goals	3.15
0	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.41	Expected goals, 5 on 5	0.86
61	Shot attempts	47
41	Unblocked attempts	32
24	Shots on goal	19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:43	DAL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 62–38% WSH had led since 13:24 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
15:43	WSH	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · WSH takes the lead, 60–40% DAL had led since 0:43 of the 2nd, by as much as 67%
15:50	WSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DAL 1.25–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:50 to 16:50 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
3:10	DAL	Goalie	Goalie · Oettinger +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.10 xG, 20 shots on goal
18:21	WSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 1–0 With 1:39 left

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	2	0	21:37
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	0	0	0	9	0.31	0	0	20:33
80	Pierre-Luc Dubois	0	0	0	0	5	0.17	2	1	19:58
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	0	0	0	10	0.69	1	2	19:23
77	Connor McMichael	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	17:01
9	Ryan Leonard	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	2	14:58
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	0	4	0.38	0	0	13:36
26	Nic Dowd	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	1	1	13:08
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	4	0.35	0	0	10:01
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	6	0	09:33
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	1	1	08:48
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	0	08:27
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	0	0	0	6	0.15	2	0	27:12
74	John Carlson	0	0	0	0	5	0.17	0	0	25:11
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	2	21:01
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	19:06
47	Declan Chisholm	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	1	14:17
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	11:33

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	19	1	18	.947	2.14	+1.14

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
53	Wyatt Johnston	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	0	1	22:54
96	Mikko Rantanen	0	1	1	0	7	0.31	0	0	21:33
18	Sam Steel	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	1	19:33
21	Jason Robertson	0	0	0	0	4	0.66	0	2	19:17
91	Tyler Seguin	1	0	1	0	3	0.22	0	1	19:07
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	0	0	0	2	0.90	1	1	17:30
12	Radek Faksa	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	1	14:57
15	Colin Blackwell	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	3	1	12:20
49	Justin Hryckowian	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	0	0	12:15
73	Adam Erne	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	5	1	11:41
11	Nathan Bastian	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	6	0	08:04
Defense
23	Esa Lindell	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	2	23:38
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	1	1	0	4	0.18	0	0	23:22
55	Thomas Harley	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	21:01
46	Ilya Lyubushkin	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	2	16:52
36	Alexander Petrovic	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	2	4	12:55
6	Lian Bichsel	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	8	1	12:19
20	Kyle Capobianco	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	04:42

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jake Oettinger	24	0	24	1.000	2.88	+2.88

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+1.34	+0.23	+1.12	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	10:01
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+1.32	+0.45	+0.75	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	19:23
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+1.17	+0.10	+0.96	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	27:12
48 Logan Thompson G	+1.14	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.14	58:14
53 Ethen Frank C	+1.12	+0.20	+0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:48
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L	+1.04	+0.11	+0.85	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	—	19:58
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+0.90	0.00	+0.85	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:33
3 Matt Roy D	+0.89	0.00	+0.64	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	21:01
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	+0.87	+0.25	+0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:36
47 Declan Chisholm D	+0.63	+0.02	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:17
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+0.52	+0.20	+0.34	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:33
43 Tom Wilson R	+0.48	+0.08	+0.75	-0.30	0.00	-0.04	—	21:37
74 John Carlson D	+0.38	+0.11	+0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	25:11
9 Ryan Leonard R	+0.36	+0.07	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	14:58
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+0.14	0.00	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:06
24 Connor McMichael C	+0.09	0.00	+0.02	0.00	-0.05	+0.12	—	17:01
22 Brandon Duhaime R	-0.13	+0.04	0.00	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	9:33
26 Nic Dowd C	-0.19	+0.03	-0.29	0.00	-0.01	+0.07	—	13:08
34 Justin Sourdif R	-0.21	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:27

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
29 Jake Oettinger G	+2.88	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.88	60:00
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+0.79	+0.70	+0.12	-0.18	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	23:22
96 Mikko Rantanen R	+0.37	+0.55	+0.20	-0.54	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	21:33
91 Tyler Seguin C	+0.30	+0.75	+0.14	-0.67	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	—	19:07
12 Radek Faksa C	+0.30	0.00	0.00	-0.07	+0.30	+0.02	+0.05	—	14:57
20 Kyle Capobianco D	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	4:42
18 Sam Steel C	-0.04	0.00	+0.09	+0.04	-0.30	+0.06	+0.07	—	19:33
11 Nathan Bastian R	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:04
22 Mavrik Bourque C	-0.07	0.00	+0.59	-0.70	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	17:30
23 Esa Lindell D	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	23:38
21 Jason Robertson L	-0.17	0.00	+0.43	-0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:17
73 Adam Erne L	-0.28	0.00	+0.10	-0.42	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	11:41
28 Alexander Petrovic D	-0.37	0.00	+0.01	-0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	12:55
49 Justin Hryckowian C	-0.43	0.00	+0.21	-0.62	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	12:15
53 Wyatt Johnston C	-0.48	0.00	+0.07	-0.58	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	22:54
6 Lian Bichsel D	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.47	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	12:19
15 Colin Blackwell C	-0.71	0.00	+0.07	-0.81	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	12:20
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D	-0.78	0.00	0.00	-0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:52
55 Thomas Harley D	-1.05	0.00	+0.02	-1.10	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:01

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.