hockeystats.io

Washington CapitalsWSH 2–3 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 110 2 30
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 201 3 20

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:06 WSH Brandon Duhaime (1) Ethen Frank (2), Nic Dowd (3) · snap xG 0.06 1–0 ▶
6:07 TBL Emil Lilleberg (1) Jake Guentzel (9), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (3) · snap xG 0.20 1–1 ▶
15:09 TBL Jake Guentzel (6)PP Victor Hedman (12), Brandon Hagel (7) · tip-in xG 0.12 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
17:08 WSH John Carlson (4) Unassisted · xG 0.12 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
8:42 TBL Brandon Hagel (7) Dominic James (3), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (4) · snap xG 0.14 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 65%Deserve to win35% TBL
WSHTBL
2.59Expected goals1.81
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.89Expected goals, 5 on 51.65
61Shot attempts43
50Unblocked attempts29
30Shots on goal20

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:50 TBL No shift No shift · McDonagh, 35:07 on the bench
No shift after 18:44 of the 1st; 7 shifts (6:19) before that
14:20 WSH No shift No shift · Sourdif, 11:16 on the bench
No shift from 4:16 to 15:32 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (5:10) before that

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Nic Dowd: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:24) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:53) J.J. Moser: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:57) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:20) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:02) Aliaksei Protas: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:24) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:07) Brandon Duhaime: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:50) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:13) Connor McMichael: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:49) Matt Roy: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:55) Connor McMichael: between-legs, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:56) Brayden Point: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:14) Justin Sourdif: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:11) Matt Roy: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:18) John Carlson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:38) Jakob Chychrun: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:00) Matt Roy: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:15) Darren Raddysh: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:57) Dylan Strome: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:48) John Carlson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:43) Brayden Point: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:00) Ethen Frank: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:23) Nic Dowd: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:39) John Carlson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:17) Victor Hedman: slap, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:58) Brandon Duhaime: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:10) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:31) J.J. Moser: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:09) Yanni Gourde: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:14) John Carlson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:44) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:36) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:20) Nic Dowd: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:40) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:57) J.J. Moser: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:21) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:25) Rasmus Sandin: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:40) Anthony Beauvillier: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:44) Martin Fehérváry: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:48) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 10:48) Tom Wilson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:00) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:15) Connor McMichael: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:17) Victor Hedman: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:18) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:22) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:12) Tom Wilson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:51) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:22) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:47) John Carlson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:27) Anthony Beauvillier: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:56) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:37) Aliaksei Protas: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:06) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:19) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:48) Tom Wilson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:55) Victor Hedman: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:12) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:10) Martin Fehérváry: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:10) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:48) Erik Cernak: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:41) Erik Cernak: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:51) Martin Fehérváry: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:33) Jakob Chychrun: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:07) Dylan Strome: backhand, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:39) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:52) Brandon Hagel: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:24) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:29) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:34) Matt Roy: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:37) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:47) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:49) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:37) Brandon Duhaime: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:06) Emil Lilleberg: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 6:07) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:09) John Carlson: GOAL, shot, 55 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:08) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:42)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Dylan Strome 000 0 30.14 0020:44
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 +1 70.43 2119:18
43 Tom Wilson 000 0 30.21 6018:11
8 Alex Ovechkin 000 -1 50.39 1117:49
77 Connor McMichael 000 0 30.15 0017:21
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 -1 20.12 0116:08
26 Nic Dowd 011 +1 40.15 4014:20
9 Ryan Leonard 000 -1 30.00 2113:11
53 Ethen Frank 011 +1 20.03 0112:19
24 Brandon Duhaime 101 +1 30.07 0011:06
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 -1 00.00 0008:30
34 Justin Sourdif 000 -1 10.06 0007:31
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 000 0 60.25 1024:58
3 Matt Roy 000 0 60.24 1323:08
74 John Carlson 101 +2 80.24 0018:59
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -1 20.02 1018:56
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 +1 30.09 0217:27
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 -2 00.00 1215:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 20317 .850 1.81 -1.19

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Nikita Kucherov 000 +1 50.09 0022:34
59 Jake Guentzel 112 0 20.14 0122:31
38 Brandon Hagel 112 0 60.47 1020:18
21 Brayden Point 000 +1 20.14 0019:06
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -1 10.01 1316:07
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 10.07 2115:27
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 -1 00.00 3114:15
17 Dominic James 011 0 10.00 2112:51
93 Gage Goncalves 000 +1 20.25 4012:26
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 30.10 0010:16
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 0009:44
Defense
78 Emil Lilleberg 101 +1 10.20 1120:24
90 J.J. Moser 000 -1 50.11 0020:00
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 022 0 30.02 3019:37
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 50.13 3018:58
77 Victor Hedman 011 0 30.04 0017:51
43 Darren Raddysh 000 0 30.04 0115:42
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 0 00.00 0106:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 30229 .967 2.59 +0.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 John Carlson D +1.12 +0.75 +0.16 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 18:59
22 Brandon Duhaime R +1.11 +0.75 +0.05 +0.30 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:06
53 Ethen Frank C +1.06 +0.70 +0.02 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:19
26 Nic Dowd C +1.00 +0.55 +0.10 +0.31 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 14:20
3 Matt Roy D +0.79 0.00 +0.15 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:08
6 Jakob Chychrun D +0.54 0.00 +0.17 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:58
42 Martin Fehérváry D +0.39 0.00 +0.06 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:27
21 Aliaksei Protas C +0.38 0.00 +0.28 +0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:18
43 Tom Wilson R +0.30 0.00 +0.14 +0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:11
24 Connor McMichael C +0.25 0.00 +0.10 +0.21 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 17:21
8 Alex Ovechkin L +0.15 0.00 +0.25 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:49
17 Dylan Strome C 0.00 0.00 +0.09 -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 20:44
72 Anthony Beauvillier L -0.10 0.00 +0.08 -0.20 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 16:08
34 Justin Sourdif R -0.11 0.00 +0.04 -0.31 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 7:31
29 Hendrix Lapierre C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:30
9 Ryan Leonard R -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:11
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:22
38 Rasmus Sandin D -0.57 0.00 +0.02 -0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:56
48 Logan Thompson G -1.19 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.19 57:54

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +1.80 +1.10 +0.01 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 19:37
59 Jake Guentzel C +1.67 +1.45 +0.09 +0.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 22:31
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.64 +1.30 +0.31 +0.03 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 20:18
77 Victor Hedman D +0.92 +0.70 +0.03 +0.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:51
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.83 +0.75 +0.13 +0.07 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 20:24
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.61 0.00 +0.16 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:26
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.59 59:34
62 Jack Finley C +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.47 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 9:44
17 Dominic James C +0.41 +0.70 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 12:51
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.34 0.00 +0.06 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:34
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.26 0.00 +0.03 +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:42
21 Brayden Point C +0.04 0.00 +0.09 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 19:06
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.09 0.00 +0.07 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:16
90 J.J. Moser D -0.10 0.00 +0.07 -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:00
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 14:15
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.24 0.00 +0.05 -0.27 0.00 -0.03 +0.01 — 15:27
81 Erik Cernak D -0.31 0.00 +0.08 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:58
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.31 0.00 +0.01 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:07
27 Ryan McDonagh D -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 6:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.