Washington CapitalsWSH 4–1 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH	1	1	2	4	28
Carolina HurricanesCAR	0	1	0	1	31

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:42	WSH	Brandon Duhaime (2) Ethen Frank (3), Nic Dowd (4) · wrist xG 0.06	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
5:59	WSH	Dylan Strome (5) Alex Ovechkin (8), John Carlson (8) · snap xG 0.23	2–0 ▶
13:56	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (3) Jackson Blake (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (7) · snap xG 0.39	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
5:46	WSH	Jakob Chychrun (4)PP Ryan Leonard (5), John Carlson (9) · snap xG 0.35	3–1 ▶
19:29	WSH	Alex Ovechkin (4)EN Anthony Beauvillier (2) · wrist xG 0.55	4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 33%Deserve to win67% CAR

WSH		CAR
3.60	Expected goals	4.12
4	Goals (no shootout)	1
1.59	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.29
49	Shot attempts	70
39	Unblocked attempts	48
28	Shots on goal	31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:05	CAR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 61–39% WSH had led since 7:10 of the 1st, by as much as 71%
1:10	CAR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.54–0.12 In xG over 10 minutes, 14:20 of the 1st to 4:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
13:52	WSH	Goalie	Goalie · Thompson +2.2 goals saved 0 goals on 2.16 xG, 15 shots on goal
3rd Period
18:00	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 3–1 With 2:00 left; WSH scored at 19:29 of the 3rd (4–1)

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	0	0	0	0	3	0.43	1	0	22:02
77	Connor McMichael	0	0	0	+1	4	0.17	1	0	18:06
26	Nic Dowd	0	1	1	+1	1	0.10	0	0	17:27
24	Brandon Duhaime	1	0	1	+1	2	0.07	2	7	16:40
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	16:33
17	Dylan Strome	1	0	1	+1	3	0.25	0	0	16:12
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	1	1	+2	4	0.15	2	1	14:53
8	Alex Ovechkin	1	1	2	+2	7	0.74	0	1	14:48
53	Ethen Frank	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	2	12:37
9	Ryan Leonard	0	1	1	-1	7	0.68	0	0	09:19
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	07:18
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	1	0	06:28
Defense
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	1	25:15
74	John Carlson	0	2	2	+2	2	0.23	0	4	22:51
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	19:09
6	Jakob Chychrun	1	0	1	-1	6	0.48	2	1	19:09
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	+2	3	0.11	0	1	17:11
47	Declan Chisholm	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	0	14:02

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	31	1	30	.968	4.12	+3.12

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	0	0	0	-2	2	0.13	0	0	17:57
53	Jackson Blake	0	1	1	0	7	0.84	0	0	17:22
24	Seth Jarvis	0	0	0	-2	3	0.35	0	0	17:21
71	Taylor Hall	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	0	0	17:00
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	1	1	16:02
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	-1	3	0.25	4	1	15:33
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	-2	10	0.72	2	0	15:12
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	14:11
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	1	0	1	+1	5	0.57	0	0	14:09
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	0	0	14:07
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	3	0	10:29
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	09:41
Defense
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	-2	11	0.19	2	1	23:02
19	K'Andre Miller	0	0	0	-2	6	0.04	3	1	21:24
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	0	7	0.31	1	3	20:43
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	1	1	+1	2	0.00	1	0	20:00
64	Joel Nystrom	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	14:48
6	Mike Reilly	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	2	13:58

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Frederik Andersen	27	3	24	.889	3.04	+0.04

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Logan Thompson G	+3.12	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+3.12	60:00
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+2.30	+1.45	+0.48	+0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	14:48
74 John Carlson D	+1.84	+1.10	+0.15	+0.30	+0.15	0.00	+0.14	—	22:51
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+1.35	+0.75	+0.05	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.33	—	16:40
17 Dylan Strome C	+1.22	+0.75	+0.16	+0.27	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	16:12
53 Ethen Frank C	+1.09	+0.70	0.00	+0.12	+0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	12:37
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	+1.05	+0.70	+0.10	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:53
9 Ryan Leonard R	+0.75	+0.70	+0.44	-0.55	+0.15	-0.01	+0.02	—	9:19
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+0.62	0.00	+0.07	+0.62	-0.12	0.00	+0.05	—	17:11
26 Nic Dowd C	+0.51	+0.55	+0.06	-0.01	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	—	17:27
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+0.40	+0.75	+0.31	-0.55	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	19:09
3 Matt Roy D	+0.08	0.00	+0.02	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	25:15
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	-0.29	0.00	+0.10	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	6:28
43 Tom Wilson R	-0.30	0.00	+0.28	-0.61	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	22:02
24 Connor McMichael C	-0.32	0.00	+0.11	-0.38	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	18:06
34 Justin Sourdif R	-0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	7:18
21 Aliaksei Protas C	-0.56	0.00	+0.01	-0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	16:33
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.89	0.00	0.00	-0.66	-0.15	0.00	-0.08	—	19:09
47 Declan Chisholm D	-1.06	0.00	+0.01	-1.02	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:02

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
53 Jackson Blake R	+2.33	+0.70	+0.54	+0.95	+0.18	0.00	-0.04	—	17:22
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.75	+0.75	+0.37	+0.69	0.00	-0.01	-0.06	—	14:09
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.50	+0.55	0.00	+0.97	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:00
22 Logan Stankoven C	+1.45	0.00	+0.16	+1.05	+0.23	+0.02	-0.02	—	14:07
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.95	0.00	+0.20	+0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	20:43
48 Jordan Martinook L	+0.45	0.00	+0.16	+0.11	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	16:02
28 William Carrier L	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:41
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+0.25	0.00	+0.47	-0.35	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	15:12
11 Jordan Staal C	+0.16	0.00	+0.16	-0.07	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	15:33
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	+0.09	0.00	+0.07	+0.01	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	10:29
26 Sean Walker D	+0.08	0.00	+0.12	+0.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	23:02
31 Frederik Andersen G	+0.08	0.00	—	—	+0.03	—	—	+0.04	54:50
71 Taylor Hall L	+0.06	0.00	+0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:00
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:11
52 Pyotr Kochetkov G	0.00	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	0.00	3:36
6 Mike Reilly D	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	13:58
64 Joel Nystrom D	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:48
19 K'Andre Miller D	-0.32	0.00	+0.03	-0.14	-0.30	0.00	+0.09	—	21:24
20 Sebastian Aho C	-0.33	0.00	+0.09	-0.36	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	—	17:57
24 Seth Jarvis C	-0.36	0.00	+0.23	-0.44	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:21

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.