Edmonton OilersEDM 4–7 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM	2	0	2	4	30
Washington CapitalsWSH	3	1	3	7	22

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:17	WSH	Aliaksei Protas (6) John Carlson (11), Justin Sourdif (1) · snap xG 0.16	0–1 ▶
6:04	WSH	Alex Ovechkin (7) Jakob Chychrun (11), Matt Roy (3) · tip-in xG 0.06	0–2 ▶
7:05	EDM	Darnell Nurse (4) Connor McDavid (22), Leon Draisaitl (12) · slap xG 0.03	1–2 ▶
10:34	WSH	Ryan Leonard (4) Connor McMichael (6), John Carlson (12) · snap xG 0.20	1–3 ▶
12:17	EDM	Darnell Nurse (5) Zach Hyman (2) · snap xG 0.04	2–3 ▶
2nd Period
11:49	WSH	Ryan Leonard (5) Connor McMichael (7) · backhand xG 0.18	2–4 ▶
3rd Period
2:41	EDM	David Tomasek (2) Andrew Mangiapane (4), Mattias Janmark (1) · backhand xG 0.28	3–4 ▶
6:37	WSH	Anthony Beauvillier (4) Dylan Strome (12), Jakob Chychrun (12) · snap xG 0.20	3–5 ▶
7:47	EDM	Leon Draisaitl (14)PP Connor McDavid (23), Evan Bouchard (14) · snap xG 0.16	4–5 ▶
18:59	WSH	Tom Wilson (10)EN Connor McMichael (8), John Carlson (13) · snap xG 0.46	4–6 ▶
19:27	WSH	Tom Wilson (11)EN Unassisted · snap xG 0.86	4–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 69%Deserve to win31% WSH

EDM		WSH
3.78	Expected goals	3.92
4	Goals (no shootout)	7
3.15	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.52
74	Shot attempts	41
48	Unblocked attempts	35
30	Shots on goal	22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:34	EDM	Goalie	Goalie · Skinner −2.4 goals saved 3 goals on 0.58 xG, 7 shots on goal
3rd Period
4:20	EDM	No shift	No shift · Regula, 29:43 on the bench No shift after 2:13 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (1:33) before that
11:24	EDM	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · EDM takes the lead, 60–40% WSH had led since 14:15 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
16:40	EDM	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.10–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:40 to 16:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:12	EDM	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 5–4 With 1:48 left; WSH scored at 18:59 of the 3rd (4–6)
19:16	EDM	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 6–4 With 0:44 left; WSH scored at 19:27 of the 3rd (4–7)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	0	2	2	-2	7	0.68	1	0	24:02
29	Leon Draisaitl	1	1	2	-3	7	0.65	0	1	23:26
96	Jack Roslovic	0	0	0	-3	1	0.00	1	0	22:50
18	Zach Hyman	0	1	1	-3	2	0.02	3	0	20:40
92	Vasily Podkolzin	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	0	0	16:42
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	1	2	14:55
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	0	8	0.26	4	0	14:40
22	Matt Savoie	0	0	0	-1	4	0.38	0	0	14:20
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	1	1	-1	7	0.20	0	0	13:02
13	Mattias Janmark	0	1	1	-1	2	0.25	0	0	09:34
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	1	1	0	7	0.23	0	0	25:59
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	0	0	-2	9	0.33	0	1	22:18
25	Darnell Nurse	2	0	2	+1	6	0.16	0	2	21:47
96	Jake Walman	0	0	0	-2	4	0.04	0	0	21:39
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	-3	1	0.00	0	0	12:48
49	Ty Emberson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	0	09:52
75	Alec Regula	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	01:33

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	20	5	15	.750	2.60	-2.40

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	2	0	2	+3	2	1.32	4	3	22:44
21	Aliaksei Protas	1	0	1	+3	5	0.38	1	2	20:43
17	Dylan Strome	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	0	2	17:15
77	Connor McMichael	0	3	3	+3	1	0.07	2	2	16:52
8	Alex Ovechkin	1	0	1	+2	3	0.13	0	0	16:49
72	Anthony Beauvillier	1	0	1	+1	1	0.20	1	1	16:12
34	Justin Sourdif	0	1	1	+1	3	0.17	1	0	15:33
9	Ryan Leonard	2	0	2	+1	3	0.38	0	0	12:12
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	1	1	11:56
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	0	1	09:14
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	08:42
15	Sonny Milano	0	0	0	0	6	0.46	0	0	07:34
Defense
3	Matt Roy	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	4	22:36
74	John Carlson	0	3	3	+4	3	0.18	0	0	20:31
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	3	2	20:07
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	2	2	+2	1	0.00	1	3	20:02
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	+4	2	0.14	0	3	19:24
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	-2	3	0.04	0	1	16:40

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	30	4	26	.867	3.78	-0.22

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
25 Darnell Nurse D	+3.12	+1.50	+0.11	+1.41	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	21:47
97 Connor McDavid C	+2.68	+1.40	+0.44	+0.67	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	24:02
2 Evan Bouchard D	+2.39	+0.55	+0.15	+1.54	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	25:59
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+1.71	+1.30	+0.42	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	23:26
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	+1.18	+0.70	+0.13	+0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:02
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+0.84	0.00	+0.11	+0.72	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:42
28 Jack Roslovic C	+0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.76	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	22:50
86 David Tomasek R	+0.71	+0.75	+0.21	-0.27	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	9:46
22 Matt Savoie C	+0.37	0.00	+0.25	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:20
19 Adam Henrique C	+0.26	0.00	+0.04	+0.15	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	14:55
13 Mattias Janmark C	+0.15	+0.55	+0.16	-0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:34
18 Zach Hyman L	+0.11	+0.70	+0.01	-0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:40
10 Trent Frederic C	+0.04	0.00	+0.17	-0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:40
96 Jake Walman D	-0.01	0.00	+0.03	-0.14	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	21:39
49 Ty Emberson D	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:52
14 Mattias Ekholm D	-0.23	0.00	+0.21	-0.33	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	22:18
75 Alec Regula D	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	1:33
27 Brett Kulak D	-1.05	0.00	0.00	-1.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:48
74 Stuart Skinner G	-2.40	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.40	58:07

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
24 Connor McMichael C	+2.50	+2.10	+0.04	+0.30	0.00	-0.05	+0.10	—	16:52
9 Ryan Leonard R	+2.33	+1.50	+0.25	+0.56	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	12:12
43 Tom Wilson R	+2.01	+1.50	+0.86	-0.31	-0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	22:44
74 John Carlson D	+1.54	+1.80	+0.12	-0.19	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	20:31
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+1.25	+1.25	0.00	-0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	20:02
15 Sonny Milano L	+0.92	0.00	+0.30	+0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:34
17 Dylan Strome C	+0.76	+0.70	+0.03	-0.24	+0.15	+0.02	+0.10	—	17:15
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+0.70	+0.75	+0.25	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:43
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	+0.51	+0.75	+0.13	-0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	16:12
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+0.45	+0.75	+0.09	-0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:49
3 Matt Roy D	+0.42	+0.55	+0.02	-0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.24	—	22:36
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+0.26	0.00	+0.09	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	19:24
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+0.17	0.00	+0.03	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:40
34 Justin Sourdif R	+0.05	+0.55	+0.11	-0.43	-0.15	-0.03	0.00	—	15:33
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:42
22 Brandon Duhaime R	-0.06	0.00	+0.10	-0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:56
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.07	0.00	+0.12	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:14
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.09	0.00	+0.02	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:07
48 Logan Thompson G	-0.22	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.22	60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.