Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
WSH 41%Deserve to win59% MTL
WSH
MTL
3.56
Expected goals
3.67
8
Goals (no shootout)
4
2.37
Expected goals, 5 on 5
2.07
72
Shot attempts
56
54
Unblocked attempts
40
36
Shots on goal
28
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
1st Period
15:45
MTL
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · MTL takes the lead, 61–39%
WSH had led since 2:36 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
15:50
MTL
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.62–0.06
In xG over 10 minutes, 8:50 to 18:50 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
3:38
MTL
Goalie
Goalie · Montembeault −2.0 goals saved
3 goals on 0.96 xG, 10 shots on goal
3:38
MTL
Goalie change
Goalie change · Dobes in for Montembeault
3:38 of the 2nd; Montembeault had allowed 3 goals on 10 shots (0.96 xG)
9:10
WSH
No shift
No shift · Milano, 10:07 on the bench
No shift from 12:09 of the 1st to 9:13 of the 2nd; 4 shifts (2:29) before that
3rd Period
10:00
MTL
No shift
No shift · Evans, 19:06 on the bench
No shift after the end of the 2nd; 11 shifts (12:19) before that
14:40
MTL
No shift
No shift · Roy, 13:43 on the bench
No shift from 4:32 to 18:34 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (9:08) before that
15:40
WSH
No shift
No shift · Frank, 12:00 on the bench
No shift from 5:37 to 17:56 of the 3rd; 16 shifts (8:13) before that
15:40
WSH
No shift
No shift · Milano, 12:00 on the bench
No shift from 5:37 to 17:56 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:01) before that
15:50
WSH
No shift
No shift · Lapierre, 12:00 on the bench
No shift from 5:37 to 17:56 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:36) before that
17:22
MTL
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Dobes, down 6–4
With 2:38 left; WSH scored at 17:56 of the 3rd (7–4)
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.
