Carolina HurricanesCAR 3–2 Final/SO Washington CapitalsWSH

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR	0	1	1	0	1	3	39
Washington CapitalsWSH	0	1	1	0	0	2	25

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
5:00	WSH	Connor McMichael (5) Alex Ovechkin (16), Rasmus Sandin (6) · backhand xG 0.15	0–1 ▶
13:43	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (7) Logan Stankoven (8), Alexander Nikishin (7) · snap xG 0.28	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
11:32	WSH	Nic Dowd (2) Rasmus Sandin (7), Connor McMichael (12) · tip-in xG 0.07	1–2 ▶
17:45	CAR	Logan Stankoven (6) Nikolaj Ehlers (14), Jalen Chatfield (5) · snap xG 0.22	2–2 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	WSH	Anthony Beauvillier vs Brandon Bussi	Saved
	CAR	Seth Jarvis vs Logan Thompson	Goal
	WSH	Dylan Strome vs Brandon Bussi	Saved
	CAR	Andrei Svechnikov vs Logan Thompson	Missed
	WSH	Sonny Milano vs Brandon Bussi	Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 68%Deserve to win32% WSH

CAR		WSH
4.00	Expected goals	2.82
2	Goals (no shootout)	2
3.17	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.17
83	Shot attempts	46
61	Unblocked attempts	36
39	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
18:50	CAR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.36–0.25 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:10 to 19:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:24	WSH	Goalie	Goalie · Thompson +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.03 xG, 32 shots on goal
7:20	WSH	No shift	No shift · Lapierre, 22:43 on the bench No shift after 12:30 of the 2nd; 7 shifts (4:58) before that
14:00	WSH	No shift	No shift · Milano, 16:01 on the bench No shift after 3:42 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:09) before that
17:20	WSH	No shift	No shift · Duhaime, 11:34 on the bench No shift from 7:20 to 18:54 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (7:12) before that
17:41	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Bussi, down 2–1 With 2:19 left; CAR scored at 17:45 of the 3rd (2–2)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	0	0	0	0	6	0.49	2	1	21:19
24	Seth Jarvis	0	0	0	-1	10	0.46	1	0	20:30
53	Jackson Blake	0	0	0	+2	3	0.12	0	1	20:24
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	0	5	0.21	3	0	19:51
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	1	1	2	+2	8	0.62	0	0	17:54
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	2	1	17:46
22	Logan Stankoven	1	1	2	+2	6	0.75	2	0	16:54
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	0	6	0.05	3	0	13:26
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	3	0	13:21
71	Taylor Hall	0	0	0	-2	4	0.27	0	0	11:31
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	3	0	10:56
77	Mark Jankowski	0	0	0	-2	2	0.17	3	0	08:06
Defense
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	0	3	23:41
19	K'Andre Miller	0	0	0	-1	5	0.09	4	1	23:04
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	1	1	0	4	0.03	0	0	22:57
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	-1	5	0.04	1	1	22:42
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	1	1	+1	4	0.11	1	2	16:37
64	Joel Nystrom	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	1	0	12:05

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	25	2	23	.920	2.82	+0.82

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	3	2	23:29
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	0	0	0	4	0.58	0	1	22:05
17	Dylan Strome	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	0	3	20:01
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	0	5	0.54	3	0	19:38
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	0	5	0.15	5	1	18:52
77	Connor McMichael	1	1	2	+1	1	0.15	0	0	18:27
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	1	1	+1	5	0.41	0	1	17:12
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	14:43
26	Nic Dowd	1	0	1	-1	2	0.07	5	2	14:33
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	1	1	07:55
15	Sonny Milano	0	0	0	-1	3	0.19	0	0	06:09
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	04:58
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	0	0	0	5	0.07	0	2	25:27
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	1	21:58
74	John Carlson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	0	1	20:47
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	0	1	19:21
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	2	2	+1	1	0.01	1	2	18:54
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	2	16:31

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	39	2	37	.949	4.00	+2.00

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
22 Logan Stankoven C	+2.71	+1.45	+0.49	+0.74	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	16:54
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+2.55	+1.45	+0.40	+0.71	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:54
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+1.18	+0.55	+0.07	+0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	16:37
20 Sebastian Aho C	+1.17	0.00	+0.32	+0.78	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	21:19
53 Jackson Blake R	+1.13	0.00	+0.08	+0.89	+0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	20:24
19 K'Andre Miller D	+0.96	0.00	+0.06	+0.98	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	23:04
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+0.95	0.00	+0.14	+0.88	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	—	19:51
32 Brandon Bussi G	+0.82	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.82	64:56
64 Joel Nystrom D	+0.64	0.00	+0.02	+0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:05
24 Seth Jarvis C	+0.53	0.00	+0.30	+0.24	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:30
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+0.30	0.00	+0.03	-0.01	+0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	23:41
26 Sean Walker D	+0.27	0.00	+0.02	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:42
5 Jalen Chatfield D	+0.27	+0.55	+0.02	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:57
48 Jordan Martinook L	+0.12	0.00	+0.03	+0.10	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:26
11 Jordan Staal C	+0.02	0.00	+0.11	-0.24	0.00	+0.10	+0.05	—	17:46
28 William Carrier L	-0.13	0.00	+0.16	-0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:21
50 Eric Robinson L	-0.21	0.00	+0.07	-0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:56
77 Mark Jankowski L	-0.22	0.00	+0.11	-0.33	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	8:06
71 Taylor Hall L	-0.25	0.00	+0.18	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	11:31

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
38 Rasmus Sandin D	+2.44	+1.25	+0.01	+1.10	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:54
48 Logan Thompson G	+2.00	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.00	65:00
24 Connor McMichael C	+1.19	+1.30	+0.10	-0.16	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	18:27
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+1.09	0.00	+0.04	+1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:21
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+1.06	+0.70	+0.27	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:12
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+0.44	0.00	+0.38	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	22:05
34 Justin Sourdif R	+0.37	0.00	+0.35	+0.22	-0.15	-0.05	0.00	—	19:38
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.24	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	4:58
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+0.02	0.00	+0.08	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	7:55
26 Nic Dowd C	-0.03	+0.75	+0.04	-0.77	-0.15	+0.01	+0.08	—	14:33
15 Sonny Milano L	-0.14	0.00	+0.13	-0.26	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	6:09
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:43
43 Tom Wilson R	-0.38	0.00	+0.03	-0.63	+0.15	+0.01	+0.06	—	23:29
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	-0.39	0.00	+0.10	-0.54	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:52
17 Dylan Strome C	-0.42	0.00	+0.16	-0.65	0.00	-0.06	+0.13	—	20:01
74 John Carlson D	-0.51	0.00	+0.09	-0.65	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:47
42 Martin Fehérváry D	-0.73	0.00	+0.02	-0.85	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:31
3 Matt Roy D	-1.12	0.00	+0.01	-1.12	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	21:58
6 Jakob Chychrun D	-1.24	0.00	+0.04	-1.38	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	25:27

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.