Washington CapitalsWSH 3–4 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Thursday, January 1, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH	2	0	1	3	29
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	0	2	2	4	32

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:13	WSH	Tom Wilson (22) Justin Sourdif (7) · wrist xG 0.44	1–0 ▶
18:59	WSH	Dylan Strome (9)PP Ryan Leonard (15), Jakob Chychrun (16) · wrist xG 0.06	2–0 ▶
2nd Period
7:42	OTT	Nick Jensen (2) Jake Sanderson (20), Shane Pinto (7) · wrist xG 0.03	2–1 ▶
19:31	OTT	Ridly Greig (5) Shane Pinto (8), Michael Amadio (9) · deflected xG 0.20	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:47	OTT	David Perron (8) Stephen Halliday (6), Nick Cousins (4) · snap xG 0.16	2–3 ▶
15:53	WSH	Aliaksei Protas (16) Justin Sourdif (8), Tom Wilson (20) · wrist xG 0.13	3–3 ▶
17:38	OTT	Fabian Zetterlund (10) Thomas Chabot (11), Tim Stützle (23) · snap xG 0.17	3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 33%Deserve to win67% OTT

WSH		OTT
2.17	Expected goals	3.95
3	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.48	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.24
53	Shot attempts	67
39	Unblocked attempts	44
29	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:10	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.21–0.12 In xG over 10 minutes, 7:10 to 17:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
19:31	OTT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 61–39% WSH had led since 8:10 of the 1st, by as much as 79%
3rd Period
7:10	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.04–0.02 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:10 of the 2nd to 7:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
17:51	WSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 4–3 With 2:09 left

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	1	1	2	+1	3	0.50	3	1	22:51
17	Dylan Strome	1	0	1	-3	6	0.19	0	0	18:47
77	Connor McMichael	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	1	18:21
26	Nic Dowd	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	17:29
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	0	0	-2	7	0.21	4	0	16:33
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	1	1	15:27
21	Aliaksei Protas	1	0	1	-1	6	0.30	0	1	14:55
34	Justin Sourdif	0	2	2	+2	3	0.17	1	0	13:25
9	Ryan Leonard	0	1	1	-1	1	0.00	1	0	12:58
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	3	0.27	0	0	11:34
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	08:37
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	1	1	07:12
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	1	1	+1	4	0.10	0	0	23:25
74	John Carlson	0	0	0	-1	6	0.03	0	5	23:15
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	2	21:38
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	0	18:05
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	-2	3	0.03	1	3	16:04
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	3	11:39

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	32	4	28	.875	3.15	-0.85

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	0	1	1	0	4	0.09	4	1	21:23
12	Shane Pinto	0	2	2	+1	2	0.04	1	0	18:54
24	Dylan Cozens	0	0	0	0	6	0.26	1	1	18:16
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	0	0	0	3	0.28	3	1	17:45
28	Claude Giroux	0	0	0	+1	4	0.02	0	0	16:56
19	Drake Batherson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	3	0	16:07
22	Michael Amadio	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	3	0	16:06
71	Ridly Greig	1	0	1	+1	6	0.98	2	0	15:08
16	David Perron	1	0	1	+1	6	0.58	4	0	12:35
20	Fabian Zetterlund	1	0	1	+1	3	0.24	2	1	10:30
34	Stephen Halliday	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	1	1	06:54
21	Nick Cousins	0	1	1	0	1	0.04	0	1	06:43
Defense
85	Jake Sanderson	0	1	1	+1	6	0.65	1	3	25:44
72	Thomas Chabot	0	1	1	+2	8	0.08	1	2	22:54
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	0	0	18:55
4	Nick Jensen	1	0	1	+2	4	0.09	2	1	18:10
10	Jordan Spence	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	0	1	14:23
43	Tyler Kleven	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	4	1	13:31

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Leevi Meriläinen	29	3	26	.897	2.17	-0.83

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
43 Tom Wilson R	+2.15	+1.30	+0.33	+0.54	0.00	-0.02	+0.01	—	22:51
34 Justin Sourdif R	+2.00	+1.40	+0.11	+0.50	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:25
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+0.92	+0.55	+0.06	+0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	23:25
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+0.67	+0.75	+0.20	-0.53	+0.22	0.00	+0.03	—	14:55
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.30	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	8:37
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.35	0.00	+0.11	+0.21	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	7:12
9 Ryan Leonard R	+0.25	+0.70	0.00	-0.60	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:58
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.01	0.00	+0.17	-0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:34
3 Matt Roy D	-0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.14	-0.15	0.00	+0.12	—	21:38
74 John Carlson D	-0.24	0.00	+0.02	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.25	—	23:15
17 Dylan Strome C	-0.37	+0.75	+0.13	-1.40	+0.08	+0.06	+0.02	—	18:47
24 Connor McMichael C	-0.37	0.00	+0.03	-0.31	-0.15	-0.01	+0.07	—	18:21
26 Nic Dowd C	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.41	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	17:29
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	-0.42	0.00	+0.02	-0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	11:39
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.68	0.00	+0.01	-0.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:05
8 Alex Ovechkin L	-0.69	0.00	+0.13	-0.67	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:33
42 Martin Fehérváry D	-0.71	0.00	+0.02	-0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	16:04
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	-0.71	0.00	+0.07	-0.68	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	15:27
48 Logan Thompson G	-0.85	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.85	57:45

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Thomas Chabot D	+1.94	+0.70	+0.05	+1.14	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	22:54
85 Jake Sanderson D	+1.92	+0.70	+0.42	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	25:44
57 David Perron L	+1.84	+0.75	+0.38	+0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:35
71 Ridly Greig C	+1.78	+0.75	+0.64	+0.50	0.00	-0.07	-0.04	—	15:08
12 Shane Pinto C	+1.69	+1.25	+0.02	+0.44	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	18:54
83 Stephen Halliday C	+1.66	+0.70	+0.19	+0.74	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	6:54
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+1.61	+0.75	+0.15	+0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:30
22 Michael Amadio R	+1.54	+0.55	0.00	+0.69	+0.30	0.00	0.00	—	16:06
3 Nick Jensen D	+0.96	+0.75	+0.06	+0.29	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	18:10
18 Tim Stützle C	+0.83	+0.55	+0.06	+0.14	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	—	21:23
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+0.68	0.00	+0.18	+0.29	+0.15	+0.01	+0.05	—	17:45
10 Jordan Spence D	+0.58	0.00	+0.05	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:23
24 Dylan Cozens C	+0.25	0.00	+0.17	+0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	18:16
28 Claude Giroux R	+0.20	0.00	+0.01	+0.13	0.00	+0.05	0.00	—	16:56
2 Artem Zub D	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.34	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:55
21 Nick Cousins C	0.00	+0.55	+0.03	-0.44	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	6:43
19 Drake Batherson R	-0.41	0.00	+0.14	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:07
43 Tyler Kleven D	-0.57	0.00	+0.01	-0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	13:31
1 Leevi Meriläinen G	-0.83	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.83	60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.