Dallas StarsDAL 4–1 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Dallas StarsDAL	1	1	2	4	36
Washington CapitalsWSH	0	0	1	1	24

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:06	DAL	Radek Faksa (2)SH Esa Lindell (14) · wrist xG 0.51	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
2:37	DAL	Sam Steel (7) Thomas Harley (14), Matt Duchene (6) · tip-in xG 0.55	2–0 ▶
3rd Period
13:31	DAL	Wyatt Johnston (24) Sam Steel (9) · snap xG 0.20	3–0 ▶
17:41	WSH	Alex Ovechkin (18) John Carlson (23), Jakob Chychrun (17) · snap xG 0.08	3–1 ▶
19:41	DAL	Roope Hintz (13)EN Unassisted · snap xG 0.35	4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 83%Deserve to win17% WSH

DAL		WSH
5.07	Expected goals	2.02
4	Goals (no shootout)	1
2.20	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.27
66	Shot attempts	47
47	Unblocked attempts	36
36	Shots on goal	24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
1:00	WSH	No shift	No shift · McIlrath, 10:41 on the bench No shift from 8:43 of the 2nd to 1:39 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:30) before that
4:00	WSH	No shift	No shift · Leason, 14:06 on the bench No shift from 11:01 of the 2nd to 9:28 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:42) before that
13:40	DAL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.38–0.17 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:20 to 14:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
17:10	WSH	No shift	No shift · Duhaime, 11:17 on the bench No shift from 6:16 to 19:41 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (7:50) before that
17:34	WSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 3–0 With 2:26 left; WSH scored at 17:41 of the 3rd (3–1)

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
53	Wyatt Johnston	1	0	1	0	8	0.47	0	1	21:49
96	Mikko Rantanen	0	0	0	0	5	0.47	0	0	20:37
18	Sam Steel	1	1	2	+1	1	0.55	0	0	18:16
21	Jason Robertson	0	0	0	+1	5	0.31	0	1	18:08
24	Roope Hintz	1	0	1	+1	15	1.36	1	0	17:13
22	Mavrik Bourque	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	0	0	14:36
95	Matt Duchene	0	1	1	+1	3	0.25	1	0	13:40
15	Colin Blackwell	0	0	0	+1	3	0.10	2	0	11:18
12	Radek Faksa	1	0	1	+1	3	0.63	0	0	10:47
49	Justin Hryckowian	0	0	0	0	3	0.37	0	0	10:36
10	Oskar Bäck	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:19
11	Nathan Bastian	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	08:35
Defense
4	Miro Heiskanen	0	0	0	+1	3	0.28	1	3	28:02
23	Esa Lindell	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	3	26:49
55	Thomas Harley	0	1	1	+1	4	0.01	3	2	22:11
5	Nils Lundkvist	0	0	0	+1	5	0.11	2	0	15:36
46	Ilya Lyubushkin	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	2	0	15:14
20	Kyle Capobianco	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	1	1	10:14

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Casey DeSmith	24	1	23	.958	2.02	+1.02

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Ryan Leonard	0	0	0	-1	5	0.09	1	0	22:07
17	Dylan Strome	0	0	0	-2	3	0.34	1	0	20:50
77	Connor McMichael	0	0	0	-1	5	0.14	1	1	20:40
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	0	0	19:45
8	Alex Ovechkin	1	0	1	-2	6	0.24	1	1	19:43
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	-1	4	0.34	1	0	17:45
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	1	1	13:44
26	Nic Dowd	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	12:55
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	08:09
15	Sonny Milano	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	07:59
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	06:53
17	Brett Leason	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	05:34
Defense
74	John Carlson	0	1	1	-2	2	0.12	1	1	27:37
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	1	1	-1	11	0.29	1	1	24:30
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	0	21:49
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	2	21:19
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	4	18:31
52	Dylan McIlrath	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	06:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	35	3	32	.914	4.19	+1.19

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
18 Sam Steel C	+2.44	+1.45	+0.36	+0.68	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	18:16
24 Roope Hintz C	+2.14	+0.75	+0.88	+0.54	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	17:13
53 Wyatt Johnston C	+1.75	+0.75	+0.30	+0.63	0.00	+0.03	+0.03	—	21:49
12 Radek Faksa C	+1.24	+0.75	+0.41	+0.09	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	10:47
23 Esa Lindell D	+1.18	+0.70	0.00	+0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	26:49
55 Thomas Harley D	+1.04	+0.70	+0.01	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:11
1 Casey DeSmith G	+1.02	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.02	60:00
21 Jason Robertson L	+0.87	0.00	+0.20	+0.50	+0.15	-0.01	+0.03	—	18:08
20 Kyle Capobianco D	+0.86	0.00	0.00	+0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:14
96 Mikko Rantanen R	+0.75	0.00	+0.31	+0.65	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	20:37
95 Matt Duchene C	+0.64	+0.55	+0.16	-0.09	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	13:40
5 Nils Lundkvist D	+0.63	0.00	+0.07	+0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:36
22 Mavrik Bourque C	+0.58	0.00	+0.09	+0.52	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	14:36
4 Miro Heiskanen D	+0.42	0.00	+0.18	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	28:02
49 Justin Hryckowian C	+0.14	0.00	+0.24	-0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:36
11 Nathan Bastian R	+0.10	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:35
10 Oskar Bäck C	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:19
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D	+0.09	0.00	+0.01	+0.25	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:14
15 Colin Blackwell C	0.00	0.00	+0.06	-0.08	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	11:18

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Logan Thompson G	+1.19	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.19	58:02
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+1.09	+0.75	+0.16	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:43
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+0.72	+0.55	+0.19	-0.22	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	24:30
74 John Carlson D	+0.42	+0.70	+0.08	-0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	27:37
17 Dylan Strome C	+0.35	0.00	+0.22	+0.07	0.00	+0.08	-0.02	—	20:50
52 Dylan McIlrath D	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	6:08
34 Justin Sourdif R	+0.06	0.00	+0.12	-0.18	+0.15	-0.03	0.00	—	19:45
20 Brett Leason R	+0.01	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	5:34
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	6:53
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	-0.15	0.00	+0.22	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:45
15 Sonny Milano L	-0.22	0.00	+0.03	-0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	7:59
24 Connor McMichael C	-0.31	0.00	+0.09	-0.26	-0.15	+0.02	-0.01	—	20:40
9 Ryan Leonard R	-0.31	0.00	+0.06	-0.36	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:07
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.34	0.00	+0.02	-0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	21:19
22 Brandon Duhaime R	-0.52	0.00	+0.01	-0.56	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	8:09
3 Matt Roy D	-0.64	0.00	0.00	-0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:49
42 Martin Fehérváry D	-0.70	0.00	0.00	-0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	18:31
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.83	0.00	+0.07	-0.93	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:44
26 Nic Dowd C	-0.87	0.00	0.00	-0.84	-0.15	+0.01	+0.11	—	12:55

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.