hockeystats.io

Washington CapitalsWSH 2–3 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 101 2 32
Nashville PredatorsNSH 102 3 21

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:56 WSH Alex Ovechkin (20)PP John Carlson (26), Ryan Leonard (19) · slap xG 0.15 1–0 ▶
13:15 NSH Steven Stamkos (19)PP Filip Forsberg (16), Roman Josi (14) · slap xG 0.11 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
1:12 NSH Cole Smith (5) Roman Josi (15), Reid Schaefer (2) · wrist xG 0.14 1–2 ▶
3:29 NSH Roman Josi (6)PP Steven Stamkos (11), Ryan O'Reilly (25) · slap xG 0.11 1–3 ▶
9:03 WSH Ethen Frank (8)PP Alex Ovechkin (20), Dylan Strome (24) · wrist xG 0.15 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 58%Deserve to win42% NSH
WSHNSH
2.71Expected goals2.30
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.31Expected goals, 5 on 51.13
62Shot attempts42
50Unblocked attempts37
32Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
15:00 WSH No shift No shift · Sourdif, 28:09 on the bench
No shift after 1:36 of the 2nd; 8 shifts (6:17) before that
17:40 WSH No shift No shift · Lapierre, 11:39 on the bench
No shift from 5:28 of the 2nd to 1:12 of the 3rd; 5 shifts (4:02) before that
18:00 WSH No shift No shift · Duhaime, 11:16 on the bench
No shift from 7:12 of the 2nd to 1:12 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (5:02) before that
3rd Period
5:30 NSH xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.21–0.21
In xG over 10 minutes, 15:30 of the 2nd to 5:30 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
18:04 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Lindgren, down 3–2
With 1:56 left
18:50 WSH No shift No shift · Lapierre, 10:17 on the bench
No shift after 7:45 of the 3rd; 7 shifts (5:23) before that

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Steven Stamkos: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:30) Trevor van Riemsdyk: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:44) Matthew Wood: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:29) John Carlson: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:06) Justin Sourdif: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:27) Erik Haula: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:36) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:44) Matt Roy: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:45) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:06) Dylan Strome: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 5:27) Anthony Beauvillier: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 6:56) Ryan Leonard: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:09) Rasmus Sandin: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:17) Dylan Strome: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:24) Michael McCarron: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 10:39) Filip Forsberg: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:34) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:00) Ethen Frank: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:45) Matt Roy: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:00) John Carlson: wrist, 180 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:29) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:53) Brandon Duhaime: wrist, 115 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:24) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:56) Cole Smith: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:08) Anthony Beauvillier: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:36) Connor McMichael: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:54) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:15) Michael Bunting: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:41) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:47) Nick Blankenburg: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:50) Brady Skjei: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:50) Michael McCarron: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:14) Matthew Wood: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:23) Brett Leason: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:06) Connor McMichael: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:16) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:50) Ethen Frank: deflected, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:54) Declan Chisholm: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:05) John Carlson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:20) Ethen Frank: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:22) Ryan Leonard: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:28) Trevor van Riemsdyk: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:34) Michael McCarron: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:54) Matthew Wood: deflected, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:26) Steven Stamkos: poke, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:01) Adam Wilsby: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:16) Ethen Frank: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:17) Trevor van Riemsdyk: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:24) Connor McMichael: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:41) Michael Bunting: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:34) Matthew Wood: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:57) Nic Dowd: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:24) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:31) Roman Josi: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 3:07) Luke Evangelista: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 3:13) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 3:17) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:05) Michael Bunting: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:44) Michael McCarron: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:28) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:46) Matthew Wood: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:56) Matt Roy: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:55) Ethen Frank: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:57) Anthony Beauvillier: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:01) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:35) Connor McMichael: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:33) Rasmus Sandin: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:06) Nick Perbix: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:32) Michael McCarron: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:23) Ethen Frank: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:31) John Carlson: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:48) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:05) Martin Fehérváry: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:07) Matt Roy: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:28) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:15) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:36) John Carlson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:19) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:00) John Carlson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:23) Ethen Frank: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:24) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:32) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:33) Alex Ovechkin: GOAL, slap, 38 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:56) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, slap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:15) Cole Smith: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 1:12) Roman Josi: GOAL, slap, 40 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 3:29) Ethen Frank: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 9:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Dylan Strome 011 -1 20.21 0021:53
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 -1 50.22 0020:26
8 Alex Ovechkin 112 0 60.20 1019:26
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 -1 50.55 1019:23
77 Connor McMichael 000 0 40.26 1118:38
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 10.15 4118:16
53 Ethen Frank 101 0 90.65 1018:06
9 Ryan Leonard 011 0 20.03 3017:18
17 Brett Leason 000 0 20.02 2009:30
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 10.01 1006:17
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 20.00 0005:46
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 00.00 1005:23
Defense
74 John Carlson 011 0 60.14 0126:43
3 Matt Roy 000 -1 60.07 2022:31
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 -1 10.01 1022:20
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 0 40.13 1117:20
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 0 40.04 0011:35
47 Declan Chisholm 000 0 20.02 2111:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Charlie Lindgren 21318 .857 2.30 -0.70

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 011 0 10.23 0021:15
91 Steven Stamkos 112 0 60.16 3119:52
9 Filip Forsberg 011 0 20.05 0018:16
56 Erik Haula 000 0 10.02 0117:45
22 Cole Smith 101 +1 20.15 4016:16
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 50.33 2015:57
77 Luke Evangelista 000 0 50.29 0115:47
58 Michael Bunting 000 +1 50.33 0114:40
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 50.30 1011:23
49 Reid Schaefer 011 0 10.04 1111:17
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 0 10.00 2108:57
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 00.00 2008:42
Defense
76 Brady Skjei 000 0 20.09 1022:45
59 Roman Josi 123 +1 30.24 0021:53
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 00.00 0018:08
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 +1 10.02 0217:43
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 10.03 0216:20
48 Nick Perbix 000 +1 10.01 0015:38
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 32230 .938 2.71 +0.71

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
53 Ethen Frank C +1.74 +0.75 +0.43 +0.41 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:06
8 Alex Ovechkin L +1.19 +1.45 +0.13 -0.23 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:26
74 John Carlson D +0.83 +0.70 +0.09 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:43
9 Ryan Leonard R +0.76 +0.55 +0.02 +0.08 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 17:18
17 Dylan Strome C +0.68 +0.55 +0.14 -0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 — 21:53
24 Connor McMichael C +0.41 0.00 +0.17 +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 — 18:38
47 Declan Chisholm D +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 11:11
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +0.25 0.00 +0.36 +0.03 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 19:23
26 Nic Dowd C +0.22 0.00 +0.10 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:16
3 Matt Roy D +0.19 0.00 +0.05 +0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:31
20 Brett Leason R +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:30
34 Justin Sourdif R -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 6:17
38 Rasmus Sandin D -0.03 0.00 +0.09 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:20
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D -0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:35
42 Martin Fehérváry D -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:20
21 Aliaksei Protas C -0.11 0.00 +0.14 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:26
22 Brandon Duhaime R -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 5:46
29 Hendrix Lapierre C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 5:23
79 Charlie Lindgren G -0.70 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.70 58:09

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
59 Roman Josi D +2.16 +2.00 +0.16 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:53
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.42 +1.45 +0.10 -0.16 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 19:52
36 Cole Smith R +1.36 +0.75 +0.10 +0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:16
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.82 +0.55 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:17
29 Justus Annunen G +0.71 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.71 60:00
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.23 +0.30 +0.01 +0.05 — 8:57
71 Matthew Wood R +0.54 0.00 +0.20 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:21
17 Tyson Jost C +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.21 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:42
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:43
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.30 +0.70 +0.03 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 18:16
47 Michael McCarron C +0.25 0.00 +0.21 +0.22 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 15:57
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.15 +0.55 +0.15 -0.57 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 21:15
58 Michael Bunting L +0.15 0.00 +0.21 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:40
48 Nick Perbix D +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.30 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:38
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:08
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.12 0.00 +0.02 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 16:20
76 Brady Skjei D -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.32 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:45
56 Erik Haula L -0.39 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 -0.15 -0.05 +0.03 — 17:45
77 Luke Evangelista R -0.43 0.00 +0.19 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:49

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.