San Jose SharksSJS 3–2 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
San Jose SharksSJS 030 3 26
Washington CapitalsWSH 011 2 23

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
10:58 WSH Dylan Strome (11)PP Alex Ovechkin (21), Jakob Chychrun (18) · backhand xG 0.07 0–1 ▶
13:27 SJS Zack Ostapchuk (3) Dmitry Orlov (22), William Eklund (19) · snap xG 0.21 1–1 ▶
14:53 SJS Collin Graf (13) Pavol Regenda (1) · tip-in xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
16:13 SJS Pavol Regenda (7) Macklin Celebrini (47), Collin Graf (13) · snap xG 0.19 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
9:11 WSH Ryan Leonard (10) John Carlson (27), Martin Fehérváry (14) · snap xG 0.11 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 63%Deserve to win37% WSH
SJSWSH
2.85Expected goals2.14
3Goals (no shootout)2
2.46Expected goals, 5 on 51.48
53Shot attempts50
38Unblocked attempts38
26Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:11 SJS Deserve to win Deserve to win · SJS takes the lead, 62–38%
WSH had led since 0:24 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
3rd Period
7:20 WSH No shift No shift · McIlrath, 17:47 on the bench
No shift after 14:59 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (6:05) before that
17:00 WSH Shortened bench Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat
Leason and Milano: no shift after 4:58 of the 3rd
17:01 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 3–2
With 2:59 left

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots
Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:24) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 0:24) Connor McMichael: snap, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:40) Alexander Wennberg: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:32) John Carlson: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:53) Ethen Frank: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:58) William Eklund: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:13) Timothy Liljegren: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:23) Matt Roy: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:27) Ryan Leonard: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:34) Ryan Leonard: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:49) Mario Ferraro: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:44) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:49) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:00) Collin Graf: slap, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:01) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:07) Ryan Leonard: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:11) William Eklund: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:38) Mario Ferraro: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:48) John Klingberg: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:52) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:02) Zack Ostapchuk: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:41) Barclay Goodrow: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:11) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:34) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:40) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:59) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:07) Mario Ferraro: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:23) Vincent Iorio: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:16) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:50) Igor Chernyshov: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:58) Dylan Strome: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:02) William Eklund: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:32) John Klingberg: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:01) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:41) Alexander Wennberg: backhand, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:48) Collin Graf: tip-in, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:58) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:56) Vincent Iorio: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:40) Sam Dickinson: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:52) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:25) Vincent Iorio: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:41) Matt Roy: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:00) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:47) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:50) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:53) Collin Graf: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:04) Anthony Beauvillier: slap, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 2:25) Anthony Beauvillier: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:47) John Klingberg: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:23) Michael Misa: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 3:55) Adam Gaudette: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 4:04) John Carlson: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:37) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:58) John Klingberg: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:17) Aliaksei Protas: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:33) Ryan Leonard: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:11) Michael Misa: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 12:19) Mario Ferraro: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:23) Brandon Duhaime: snap, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:42) Aliaksei Protas: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:16) John Carlson: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:20) Dylan Strome: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:21) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:27) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:31) Matt Roy: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:51) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:20) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:00) Dylan Strome: slap, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:36) John Carlson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:43) Ethen Frank: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 19:49) Dylan Strome: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:58) Zack Ostapchuk: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 13:27) Collin Graf: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:53) Pavol Regenda: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 16:13) Ryan Leonard: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 011 +2 130.51 0125:07
51 Collin Graf 112 +2 50.24 0020:06
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 30.13 1120:06
27 William Eklund 011 +1 30.25 1017:38
92 Igor Chernyshov 000 0 10.13 3015:39
81 Adam Gaudette 000 0 20.34 2215:28
84 Pavol Regenda 112 +2 10.19 2013:46
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 0 20.00 0013:46
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 10.07 1011:33
63 Zack Ostapchuk 101 0 30.32 4010:54
77 Michael Misa 000 0 20.31 0009:58
75 Ryan Reaves 000 0 00.00 1008:21
Defense
3 John Klingberg 000 +2 60.14 0220:46
9 Dmitry Orlov 011 +2 10.00 0020:25
38 Mario Ferraro 000 +1 40.14 1219:32
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 +1 10.01 0119:04
6 Vincent Iorio 000 -1 30.04 0117:56
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -1 20.03 0016:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 23221 .913 2.14 +0.14

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Dylan Strome 101 -1 40.29 0022:19
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 -1 50.14 0021:34
8 Alex Ovechkin 011 -1 70.33 0021:21
9 Ryan Leonard 101 -1 70.20 2118:35
26 Nic Dowd 000 -2 00.00 3116:12
77 Connor McMichael 000 +1 20.00 0015:49
53 Ethen Frank 000 -1 20.24 1015:38
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 +1 60.66 1115:24
17 Brett Leason 000 -1 00.00 4009:40
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 10.00 2009:25
15 Sonny Milano 000 0 10.00 0007:28
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 00.00 0006:30
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 011 -1 40.09 0228:19
74 John Carlson 011 0 70.09 1125:45
3 Matt Roy 000 -2 30.08 2520:51
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -2 10.01 0118:35
42 Martin Fehérváry 011 +1 00.00 0217:29
52 Dylan McIlrath 000 0 00.00 2006:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 26323 .885 2.85 -0.15

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
84 Pavol Regenda L +2.00 +1.45 +0.12 +0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:46
9 Dmitry Orlov D +1.88 +0.70 0.00 +1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:25
51 Collin Graf R +1.85 +1.30 +0.15 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:06
71 Macklin Celebrini C +1.71 +0.70 +0.33 +0.30 +0.30 +0.07 +0.01 — 25:07
3 John Klingberg D +1.33 0.00 +0.09 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 20:46
72 William Eklund L +1.29 +0.55 +0.16 +0.45 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:38
63 Zack Ostapchuk C +1.11 +0.75 +0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 10:54
38 Mario Ferraro D +0.86 0.00 +0.09 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:32
37 Timothy Liljegren D +0.78 0.00 +0.01 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:04
81 Adam Gaudette R +0.70 0.00 +0.22 +0.39 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 15:28
92 Igor Chernyshov L +0.69 0.00 +0.09 +0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:39
77 Michael Misa C +0.67 0.00 +0.20 +0.50 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 9:58
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.61 0.00 +0.08 +0.43 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 20:06
75 Ryan Reaves R +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:21
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:46
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G +0.14 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.14 60:00
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.22 0.00 +0.05 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:33
6 Sam Dickinson D -0.56 0.00 +0.02 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:43
22 Vincent Iorio D -0.60 0.00 +0.03 -0.55 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 17:56

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +0.89 0.00 +0.43 +0.43 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:24
74 John Carlson D +0.67 +0.70 +0.06 +0.14 -0.30 0.00 +0.07 — 25:45
8 Alex Ovechkin L +0.30 +0.70 +0.21 -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:21
24 Connor McMichael C +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:49
21 Aliaksei Protas C +0.18 0.00 +0.09 -0.05 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 21:34
29 Hendrix Lapierre C -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 6:30
9 Ryan Leonard R -0.03 +0.75 +0.13 -0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:35
22 Brandon Duhaime R -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:26
52 Dylan McIlrath D -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:05
42 Martin Fehérváry D -0.14 +0.55 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:29
15 Sonny Milano L -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 7:28
48 Logan Thompson G -0.15 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.15 57:01
17 Dylan Strome C -0.21 +0.75 +0.19 -1.05 0.00 -0.06 -0.04 — 22:19
6 Jakob Chychrun D -0.22 +0.55 +0.06 -0.76 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 28:19
38 Rasmus Sandin D -0.41 0.00 +0.01 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:35
20 Brett Leason R -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.41 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:40
3 Matt Roy D -0.51 0.00 +0.06 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.21 — 20:51
26 Nic Dowd C -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:12
53 Ethen Frank C -0.71 0.00 +0.16 -1.00 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:37

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.